Oct. 31 2018 — Intensifying global trade tensions between China and the U.S. have taken prominence as a key risk factor in Asia. On September 17th 2018, the U.S. announced that it would seek to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion USD of Chinese goods, further escalating the trade dispute between the United States and China.1 Economists from S&P Global Ratings forecast that an escalation of the current U.S-China trade dispute could lead to a full blown trade war, which could shave roughly one percentage point off U.S. GDP and six-tenths of one percent for China’s GDP2 by 2021.
As announcements of tariffs continue to hit the news and influence market sentiment, this paper looks at navigating credit risks in an uncertain trade environment, with a focus on the impact on China.
It is organized into five sections:
I. Overview of Analysis
II. Measuring the Direct Impact of Tariffs on Chinese Exporters
III. Assessing Potential Credit Contagion
IV. The Overall Chinese Economy
V. In Summary: Looking Forward
1 Source: “USTR Finalizes Tariffs on $200 Billion of Chinese Imports in Response to China’s Unfair Trade Practices”, US Office of Trade Representatives September 17, 2018 https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2018/september/ustr-finalizes-tariffs-200
2 Source: “Global Trade At A Crossroads: It's Hard To See Any Winners In A U.S.-China Trade War”, RatingsDirect® Economic Research, September 5, 2018 https://www.capitaliq.com/CIQDotNet/CreditResearch/SPResearch.aspx?DocumentId=39726155&From=SNP_CRS
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