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Moody's: Global GDP to contract 0.5% in 2020


According to Market Intelligence, February 2023


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Moody's: Global GDP to contract 0.5% in 2020

Moody's flipped its 2020 growth forecast for the global economy, citing the rising costs of the coronavirus pandemic and the impact of government actions around the world to contain its spread.

The rating agency now expects real global GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2020 before rebounding with a 3.2% expansion in 2021. In early March, global growth was projected to hit 2.1% for the year, down from a 2.6% growth forecast in November 2019 ahead of the emergence of the coronavirus.

"Our forecasts reflect the severe curtailment of economic activity in recent days as the coronavirus has spread throughout the world," Moody's said in a report. "Lockdowns and other social distancing measures have expanded throughout advanced and emerging market countries."

Growth estimates for nearly all G-20 economies have been revised down by at least 0.3 percentage point, according to Moody's, which is forecasting GDP contractions in several advanced economies.

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Moody's expects the U.S., eurozone and U.K. economies to contract in 2020 by 2.0%, 2.2% and 2.6%, respectively. Japan is forecast to record a 2.4% slump, while China is seen to achieve 3.3% growth.

Germany is projected to suffer the biggest decline in real GDP among advanced economies with a 3.0% contraction. The French and Italian economies are expected to contract 1.4% and 2.7%, respectively.

Over the first and second quarters, Germany, Italy and the U.S. are expected to suffer cumulative real GDP contractions of 5.4%, 4.5% and 4.3%, respectively, Moody's said. The U.K. and France are also seen to record contractions of 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, over the same period.

"Although supportive fiscal and monetary policy measures will likely aid recoveries with above-trend growth in the subsequent quarters and in 2021, the output loss in the second quarter is unlikely to be fully recovered," the rating agency said.