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Investors wondering if 'Angry Birds' IPO will fly

Opinions expressed in this piece are solely those of the author and do not represent the views of S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Rovio Entertainment Ltd., the publisher of hit mobile video game "Angry Birds," has confirmed that it is readying an IPO, which could come to market this month. But will it fly?

Rovio is planning a €1.7 billion offering (about $2 billion U.S. or about 6.4x Rovio's €266 million revenue for the trailing 12 months July 2016 through June 2017, as reported by Rovio). That would be a bit higher than the 5x multiple fetched by "Farmville" video-game publisher Zynga Inc. in its 2011 IPO, according to Bloomberg News. Rovio reportedly turned down a $2.25 billion offer from Zynga in 2011 when Zynga was perceived to be a high-growth company.

"Angry Birds" has been a mega-hit since its 2009 debut; the company has seen more than 3.7 billion downloads of its games as of June 2017. Rovio's fanbase averages 80 million monthly and 11 million daily users. The game even inspired a hit movie in 2016, which grossed $350 million worldwide. A sequel is planned for 2019, according to Rovio.

"Angry Birds" and affiliated games accounted for about 79% of Rovio's total revenue in the 12-month period spanning July 2016 through June 2017. Rovio's total revenue grew 94% to €153 million and adjusted EBITDA soared 280% to €42 million in the first half of 2017.

Mobile gaming is likely to continue to be a growth industry with some estimates as high as $50 billion this year, according to video-game-research company SuperData, up from an estimated $16 billion in 2012, as reported in The New York Times.

Hits notwithstanding, investors have to be wondering if this bird can sustain altitude given that the IPO track record for one-hit wonders in media tech is less than stellar.

Here's a table of six IPOs by companies known mostly for a particular product or service. All of my selections have been dubbed "one-hit wonders" in numerous stories in the financial press. I did not tar them with that tag, but I do agree with the overall assessments.

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Five of the six selections have posted negative average-annual stock-price gains since going public. Only TiVo Corp., the oldest IPO in the table, has posted positive gains since going public in 1999.

It took TiVo six years to generate positive earnings with what was a very compelling product at the time: consumer friendly digital video recorder. But just when TiVo was starting to find earnings strength, cable companies started offering their own digital video recorders in the subscription bundle.

Two table listings above are social-media applications, which though very popular are struggling to find a sustainable business model. Twitter Inc. is probably more one dimensional compared to Snap Inc.'s photocentric messaging platform, so perhaps Snapchat is more than just a one-trick pony. Granted, it has only been public for about six months, so it may be too early to saddle it with muted expectations.

There are two game-makers in my table: Zynga and King Digital Entertainment plc. King exited via a $5.9 billion buyout at about $18 per share by game-maker Activision Blizzard Inc. less than two years after King went public on the strength of its addictive game "Candy Crush."

Zynga's market cap is less than half of what it was six years ago when it went public despite having two hit games in its library: "Farmville" and "Words With Friends."

I probably could add one more game-maker Supercell, a Rovio rival also based in Finland, which created the hit "Clash of Clans." It might be a positive stock return story, but the math is a bit murky to know for sure. Supercell passed on an IPO but opted in 2013 to sell 51% control for $1.5 billion to Japan's telecom titan SoftBank Group Corp. In 2016, SoftBank sold a controlling stake in Supercell for $8.6 billion to Chinese internet giant Tencent Holdings Ltd.

The worst performer on my list is action camera-maker GoPro Inc., despite being a brand name for most of the company's 15 years. I suspect the problem is not that its niche is shrinking, but rather that smartphones with increasingly more versatile photo capabilities are poaching market share.

Mobile gaming is up while single purpose cameras are down -- just one more example of how entire media sectors have been disrupted by smartphones during the past 10 years.