The debate over inflation among members of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy committee has apparently shifted toward the view that price pressures will remain low, casting further doubt that the central bank will go ahead with another interest rate hike in December.
"Many participants … saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2% for longer than they currently expected, and several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside," according to the minutes of the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which were released Aug. 16.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen has ascribed much of the low inflation numbers to one-off events during the first quarter, like price drops in cell phone subscriptions as companies competed for customers. But FOMC members noted that those factors would likely depress the monthly readings of core personal consumption expenditures – the Fed's preferred inflation indicator – during the second half of the year.
The July core consumer price index delivered another disappointment when it was reported this month, coming in up 0.1% from the month before when the market expected a rise of 0.2%.
Previously, the Fed indicated that it expected another rate hike this year, after raising the target federal funds rate twice in 2017 to its current range of between 1.00% and 1.25%. Most analysts and market participants are expecting the rate hike to happen at the Fed's December meeting, in part, to give the central bank time to begin the process of normalizing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
Sam Bullard, senior economist with Wells Fargo Securities, said in a phone interview that the big question when considering how the Fed was viewing inflation was how strong would the members defend their thesis that "disinflation was largely because of those idiosyncratic measures in the past."
Bullard said there may have been less conviction expressed by FOMC members but, "we are still in the December rate hike camp, though it's highly dependent on the next few inflation reports."
While a December rate hike may prove less certain depending on inflation, there was little debate about the Fed's proposal to gradually reduce its balance sheet by capping reinvestment.
"Unless something comes out of the blue, it seems like they're primed to announce the balance sheet normalization plan at the September FOMC meeting," Bullard said.
Though some FOMC members said their expectations for fiscal stimulus had faded, they also expected that overall economic activity would continue to grow at a moderate pace, along with labor market strength.
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Fed debate over inflation raises new doubts on new rate hike
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