COP29: Climate work continues with or without US, global diplomats say

The result of the US presidential election loomed large in the days leading up to the COP29 climate summit, which began Nov. 11 in Baku, Azerbaijan. But Donald Trump's return to the White House will not halt the energy transition, climate diplomats said.

"To be clear: The US election result is a blow in the fight against the climate crisis. The window to limit warming to 1.5°C is closing — these next 4 years are critical. But let's not despair. The Paris Agreement has proven resilient, stronger than any one country's policies," Laurence Tubiana, a French economist and key architect of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, wrote in a message on X on Nov. 6, the day Trump's election victory became official.

Trump, a vocal supporter of the fossil fuel industry, pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement during his first term and vowed during his 2024 campaign to do so again if elected.

The landmark climate pact aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. The US is the world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, which contribute to global warming.

Climate finance top of agenda

The US delegation attending the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku will represent the Biden administration's policies but is expected to only make commitments that can be delivered after Trump takes office in January 2025.

One of the most difficult and important negotiations in Baku will focus on setting a more ambitious target for raising the funds needed to help developing nations transition to clean energy and adapt to extreme weather.

Hopes for US leadership were already low since any US commitment to allocate tax dollars for climate finance has to be approved by Congress. At the same time, nations loyal to the Paris Agreement said they have come to depend less on the US.

The expected US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement should not affect agenda items or outcomes from the COP29 conference, said Kaveh Guilanpour, vice president for international strategies at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, which is based in Washington, DC.

"Countries will be ready to hit the ground in Baku," Guilanpour said in an interview. "I think the rest of the world will carry on."

Nations might unveil new targets

COP29 also sets the stage for nations to develop more ambitious emissions reduction goals by early 2025.

The UK, Brazil and Azerbaijan have indicated they will make COP29 announcements about what will be included in their new emission reduction pledges, David Waskow, director of the World Resources Institute's international climate program, told reporters during a call about the climate conference.

Waskow also noted that the Biden administration plans to update the US pledge set in 2021 by the end of the year. But the US would see its global influence wane if it withdraws from international agreements such as the Paris accord, Waskow and other COP29 attendees have warned.

US role shrinks; China might capitalize

It is unclear whether Trump will call for a US retreat from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change — although making such a move official could require Senate approval and would likely face lengthy litigation. A US departure from the treaty would exclude US diplomats from all global negotiations related to a transition away from fossil fuels.

Trump's election could open up a new leadership opportunity for China, climate experts said. China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, is the largest investor in renewable energy and electric vehicles.

"What they really see is the economic opportunity," Christiana Figueres, the Paris Agreement's chief negotiator, said during her Nov. 7 Outrage + Optimism podcast. "Even if the United States says, 'We're going to put in tariffs, and we're not going to take anything from the Chinese,' it's a big world out there."

Guilanpour said that if the rest of the world sees the US turning its back on multilateral agreements, it would be like leaving an "open goal" for China, allowing the country to step in and assume a larger leadership role.

Scientists studying satellite data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service said Nov. 6 that global temperatures are on track to hit another record in 2024. Average global temperatures for the past 12 months were 1.62 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, the data showed.