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Connected Britain: Taking a demand-driven approach toward 5G deployment

The U.K. may be falling behind in the global race toward superfast 5G services, but British operators said perfecting next-generation networks before they are launched will deliver better long-term results.

Amid numerous trials and preparation for 5G spectrum auctions, telecoms executives at the Connected Britain conference in London said June 20 that getting 5G right — at the expense of early adoption — is more important than being first.

"Being [the] fastest and biggest is not that relevant," Derek McManus, COO at Telefónica SA's British arm O2, said.

SNL Image02's COO Derek McManus (left to right), Vodafone CSO Vishal Dixit, Ofcom's Philip Marnick, Three CEO Dave Dyson and Dritan Kaleshi
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

"I'm more interested in working together as a country to be the best at realizing benefits because that brings inward investment, as well as U.K. export opportunities," McManus told delegates at the annual event for the telecom, cable and tech industry.

While the first commercial 5G deployments in countries such as the U.S., China, South Korea and Japan are pegged for later this year or in 2019, the U.K.'s 5G infrastructure is not expected to be in place until 2020.

"I think we can watch people's press releases from around the world and see lots of [announcements] which everyone thinks is 5G, but it's something which isn't quite yet there in terms of standards and equipment," according to Philip Marnick, group director in charge of spectrum at Ofcom, the British telecom regulator.

In the face of faster 5G launches in other developed economies, Marnick said it was important not to "undersell" Britain's strategy to ensure everyone can benefit from faster mobile networks.

"Like everything else in life, we have been leaders in mobile. I'm sure we'll continue to be," he told the crowd.

Total global 5G connections are expected to reach nearly 60 million in 2020, 1 billion by mid-2023 and up to 2.7 billion in 2025, according to research firm CCS Insight. China is forecast to hit the 100 million mark in 2021, before amassing 1 billion connections in 2025, at which point that country will account for nearly four in every 10 global 5G connections.

That said, CCS Insight's latest mobile forecast estimates that significant demand for 5G smartphones is unlikely to take hold until 2021, after which 600 million 5G-enabled devices are expected to be sold in 2022, accounting for 31% of the global market.

There is little point in launching a very big network when the consumer demand is not there yet, so U.K. operators are taking a more demand-driven approach toward 5G deployment, Vishal Dixit, Vodafone Group PLC's strategy and wholesale director, said.

"The reality is that all countries are at different stages ... there is some healthy competition … [but] the timing is very much based on when the availability of the ecosystem [arrives]," Dixit added.

Despite the U.K. trailing behind other countries in 5G, British operators exceeded spending expectations during auctions for both 4G and 5G earlier this year.

BT Group-owned EE paid £302.6 million for 40 megahertz of 3.4 GHz spectrum, which is projected to be one of the first bands available for 5G from 2020, while O2 paid £317.7 million for the same amount, as well as all the spectrum in the 2.3Ghz range for £205.9 million, adding an immediate boost to its 4G network.

Meanwhile, Hutchison 3G UK Holdings Ltd, or Three UK, bought 20 MHz of 3.4 GHz spectrum at a cost of £151.3 million and Vodafone spent £378.2 million on 50 MHz of 3.4 GHz spectrum.

Three UK CEO David Dyson said that unlike the 4G launch where EE had considerably more spectrum than any other operator, the most recent auctions would be good for mobile competition in Britain.

"Because everyone's got access to 5G spectrum, we have got four operators that are going to compete hard," he said.

Dyson also dismissed concerns about 5G's commercial viability in the U.K., given higher infrastructure costs.

"The U.K. has high population density, fast adoption of new technology and good levels of disposable income to buy some of these newer technologies. It's a great [market] to be in," he concluded.

Additional Connected Britain coverage:

Need for ultrafast fiber drives UK broadband investment