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Analysts see less revolution than evolution with iPhone X

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Analysts see less revolution than evolution with iPhone X

Apple Inc.'s latest iPhone upgrades indicate the company still leads on design, analysts said, but several questioned whether the highly-anticipated iPhone X, with a starting price of $999, would draw new Apple converts or merely keep the converted firmly in the iOS fold.

With its edge-to-edge OLED display, facial-recognition system, improved camera, faster processors, wireless charging and augmented reality support, the iPhone X is one of the most technologically advanced mobile devices on the market. But many of those individual components already exist in competing devices, noted Moody's analyst Gerald Granovsky. At this stage in the market cycle, where smartphone penetration has crested 80% in the U.S., Granovsky does not expect the latest iPhones or any single upgrade cycle to move the financial needle for Apple.

SNL Image
The new iPhone X, featuring upgraded camera and an edge-to-edge display
Source: Apple Inc.

"I don't think there's a lot of switchers back and forth [between device brands] based on the handset qualities and features or anything else, so I think the race now is to one-up each other ... to make sure the loyal users of Android or iOS don't switch because one phone has features another doesn't have," Granovsky said in an interview.

Other analysts agreed, saying the new phones largely matched expectations and were consistent with the technological trajectory of recent iPhone iterations. Evercore ISI analyst Vijay Jayant, for example, in a Sept. 12 note called the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus and the iPhone X "incremental improvements, but not transformative devices." The analyst said the iPhone X is a "significant step forward in capabilities," but he questioned whether it will offer enough of an upgrade to draw consumers' interest at such a high price point.

Mizuho Securities analyst Abhey Lamba suggested in a Sept. 12 note that iPhone X might even slow the upgrade cycle temporarily until some of the iPhone X features, like the OLED screen, are included in more affordable future iterations. Lamba left his rating on Apple at "neutral" and his price target at $150.

Others, however, pointed to pent-up demand for upgrades, as many iPhone 6 devices remain in use and ripe for replacement. Jayant predicted that many iPhone 6 and 6s users will not want to wait any longer for a new device.

Tim Long of BMO Capital Markets came in bullish on the entire new iPhone slate due to that natural replacement cycle as iPhone 6 users seek newer options. The BMO analyst also noted the increased prices for the iPhone 8 and iPhone X compared to earlier models will support a higher average sales price, supporting gross revenue results for Apple. Long left his rating and price target unchanged at "outperform" and $180 in a Sept. 13 note.

Investors reflected the measured tone of initial analysts responses, bidding Apple shares down marginally after the Sept. 12 unveiling event. On Sept. 11, Apple was up about 1.8%, but it largely undid those gains with a 0.4% loss on Sept. 12 and a 0.8% decline on Sept. 13. The stock closed at $159.65 on Sept. 13.

While the release may have been in-line from a market and product-cycle perspective, some saw a harbinger of Apple's long-term strategy. Reticle Research principal analyst Ross Rubin said that the iPhone X demonstrates that Apple still leads in design. He described the feel of the iPhone X as little more than a "piece of glass in your hand," keeping with Apple's commitment to a minimalist, low-profile design.

Further, the removal of physical buttons, the facial recognition security, the machine learning capabilities, the tie-in with the HomeKit IoT platform and the addition of augmented reality signal that Apple views its new phones not as ends in themselves, but as means to a broader ecosystem of devices, services and tools accessible through a mobile device, Rubin said.

The new smartphones are "cementing Apple's position for longer-term bets, for whatever may come after the iPhone," he said.

Granovsky agreed. The iPhone's integration with Mac laptops, the iPad line, the Apple Watch, the iTunes and App stores and other products and services "cements people to the ecosystem," he said.

"I think everyone has that as their Holy Grail, but only Apple and to some extent Amazon have been able to do it," he added.