Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 15 December 2025

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

Flash PMI surveys, US payrolls and CPI, plus trio of key policy meetings

The coming week sees policy decisions from no fewer than nine central banks including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, as well as a slew of economic data releases such as December’s flash PMI surveys, US nonfarm payrolls, plus inflation for the US, UK and eurozone.

After the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates at its December meeting, the focus shifts to the other major central banks for which varying paths are expected to be taken.

Policymakers at the Bank of England have been heavily split on whether interest rates need to fall to support subdued economic growth and slumping employment, or whether sticky inflation requires a more hawkish approach. Our analysts are leaning into the rate cut argument, especially given the weakness of recent survey data on output, hiring and prices. However, policymakers will have the benefit of seeing updates to official labour market and inflation data, as well as the December flash UK PMIs, before announcing their decision on Thursday. The latter will provide the first indication of how businesses reacted to the Autumn Budget.

The European Central Bank is meanwhile expected to keep rate on hold, and in fact do so throughout 2026. Inflation has been broadly in line with its 2% target in recent months and economic growth has been showing signs of reviving. Key releases leading up to Thursday’s policy announcement will be the flash PMI, inflation and industrial production.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates on Friday as it continues its tentative monetary tightening. Recent survey data have brought news of accelerating economic growth, improved confidence and rising price pressures. However, another rate hike does not look likely until late in 2026, given the drag to economic growth created by geopolitical uncertainty, both on Japan’s goods exports and inbound tourism. In addition to the flash PMI, Japan also sees the Tankan survey, inflation and trade data updated to help with the assessment of the current macro environment.

Other key data releases to watch are Monday’s industrial production and retail sales for mainland China, but, perhaps most importantly, we will see the delayed US employment report for October, including payrolls on Tuesday, alongside retail sales numbers. US CPI inflation data are then out on Thursday. September’s payrolls data surprised to the upside with a 119k rise, while inflation had accelerated to 3.0%; neither arguably in rate cut territory.