Upcoming UK PMI data in spotlight after disappointing first quarter GDP numbers

• GDP up just 0.1% in Q1
• Bad weather only partly to blame
• April PMI surveys will be important in gauging underlying growth trend

UK economic growth slowed to near stagnation in the first quarter, casting further doubts on the health of the economy and seriously knocking the case for the Bank of England to raise interest rates again in May. April's PMI data will likely be key to monetary policy decisions.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed gross domestic product up 0.1% in the first three months of the year, down from 0.4% in the fourth quarter of last year. The economy was just 1.2% larger than a year ago, the weakest rise for nearly six years.

Not just a dose of bad weather

A deterioration in the pace of growth had been signposted in advance by a steady flow of disappointing monthly economic data, including the Download full article

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit
Tel: +44 20 7260 2329
chris.williamson@ihsmarkit.com

Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data are compiled by IHS Markit for more than 40 economies worldwide. The monthly data are derived from surveys of senior executives at private sector companies, and are available only via subscription. The PMI dataset features a headline number, which indicates the overall health of an economy, and sub-indices, which provide insights into other key economic drivers such as GDP, inflation, exports, capacity utilization, employment and inventories. The PMI data are used by financial and corporate professionals to better understand where economies and markets are headed, and to uncover opportunities.

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