February Monthly GDP Index from Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit
Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in February, more than reversing a0.3% decline in January (that was revised lower from a 0.1% decline). The rebound in monthly GDP in February was broad based across components, as rising contributions were exhibited in PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, net exports, and inventory investment. Averaged over January and February, monthly GDP was 1.2% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Our latest forecast of 1.8% GDP growth in the first quarter assumes a 0.2% increase in monthly GDP in March.
Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.