Markit economic overview

The following is an extract from Markit's monthly economic overview. For the full report please click the link at the bottom of the article.

Global growth slows for second month running in May

Global economic growth edged lower for a second successive month in May according to Markit's PMI survey data, hitting the lowest since January. Despite near-stagnation of emerging markets, the rate of expansion nevertheless remained reasonably robust, signalling annual global GDP growth of 2-2.5%, and sufficiently strong to encourage firms to boost employment at the fastest rate seen since the financial crisis.

Global PMI and economic growth

Developed v emerging markets

US economy set for Q2 rebound, but questions hang over strength of upturn

The US economy is growing again after a brief contraction in Q1. Markit's PMI data signal 2-3% annualised GDP growth in Q2 and job creation has boomed. A near post-crisis high in the PMI employment index was matched by a 280,000 non-farm payroll surge, raising the chance of a September rate hike. However, the surveys also show the strong dollar hurting exports and earnings, which could worry the Fed if it continues.

US economic growth (GDP v PMI)*

* pre-crisis PMI uses manufacturing data only.

US labour market

Solid PMI results support ECB view that eurozone recovery is 'on track'

The ECB kept its foot firmly on the stimulus pedal at its June meeting, dismissing suggestions that a revival in economic growth and signs of resurgent inflation may prompt a tapering of QE. Since the ECB announced its €1.1 trillion QE programme economic growth and inflation have surprised on the upside. The positive trend continued in May, with the PMI consistent with the region's GDP growing by 0.3-0.4% in Q2

Eurozone economic growth (GDP v PMI)

Eurozone's big-four member states

Use the download link below to access a full overview of the May PMI surveys, including details of all major economies, policy implications and the market impact.

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