Markit economic overview

The following is an extract from Markit's monthly economic overview. For the full report please click the link at the bottom of the article.

Global economic growth slows for fifth month running to hit 14-month low

The global economy lost further momentum as 2014 came to a close, according to Markit's worldwide PMI surveys. The JPMorgan Global PMI" fell to a 14-month low, signalling GDP annual growth of just less than 2.0%. The developed world continued to outperform emerging markets, but the gulf was the narrowest for 14 months, largely due to developed world growth slowing to the second-weakest for a year-and-a-half.

Global PMI and economic growth

Developed v. emerging markets

US PMI surveys signal growth slowdown at year-end, but job market remains buoyant

Excluding the October 2013 government shutdown, the December US PMI surveys signalled the weakest expansion since 2012. Growth slowed for a sixth consecutive month. The surveys suggest economic growth will have slowed in Q4 from the 1.2% (5.0% annualised) rate seen in Q3, down to 0.6% (2.5% annualised) at best. Job creation remained buoyant, however, with Q4 seeing the biggest hiring surge since the recession.

US economic growth (GDP v PMI)*

US labour market

UK economic growth weakest for 1" years, but household optimism improves

The UK all-sector PMI to a 19-month low, rounding off the worst quarter for 1" years and pointing to GDP growth of 0.5% in Q4, down from 0.7% in Q3 and adding to the sense that interest rates will remain on hold until the second half of next year. Household optimism, however, rose to a post-crisis high on the back of rising incomes and falling inflation. Wage growth exceeded inflation for the first time since 2009.

UK economic growth (GDP v PMI)

Inflation and wages

Use the download link below to access a full overview of the November PMI surveys, including details of all major economies, policy implications and the market impact.

Download full article