Customer Logins

Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. Sign in to the product or service center of your choice.

Customer Logins

My Logins

All Customer Logins
S&P Global Market Intelligence

  • S&P Global
  • S&P Dow Jones Indices
  • S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • S&P Global Mobility
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights
  • S&P Global Ratings
  • S&P Global Sustainable1
Close
Discover more about S&P Global’s offerings
Investor Relations
  • Investor Relations Overview
  • Investor Presentations
  • Investor Fact Book
  • News Releases
  • Quarterly Earnings
  • SEC Filings & Reports
  • Executive Committee
  • Corporate Governance
  • Merger Information
  • Stock & Dividends
  • Shareholder Services
  • Contact Investor Relations
Languages
  • English
  • 中文
  • 日本語
  • 한국어
  • Português
  • Español
  • ไทย
About
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Email Subscription Center
  • Media Center
  • Glossary
Product Login
S&P Global Market Intelligence
  • Who We Serve
  • Solutions
  • News & Insights
  • Events
  • Product Login
  • Request Follow Up
  •  
    • Academia
    • Commercial Banking
    • Corporations
     
    • Government & Regulatory Agencies
    • Insurance
    • Investment & Global Banking
     
    • Investment Management
    • Private Equity
    • Professional Services
  • WORKFLOW SOLUTIONS
    • Capital Formation
    • Credit and Risk Solutions
    • Data & Distribution
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • Sustainability
    • Financial Technology Solutions
     
    • Issuer & IR Solutions
    • Lending Solutions
    • Post Trade Processing
    • Private Markets
    • Risk, Compliance, & Reporting
    • Supply Chain
    PRODUCTS
    • S&P Capital IQ Pro
    • S&P Global Marketplace
    • China Credit Analytics
    • Climate Credit Analytics
    • Credit Analytics
    • RatingsDirect ®
    • RatingsXpress ®
    • 451 Research
    See More S&P Global Solutions
     
    • Capital Access
    • Corporate Actions
    • KY3P ®
    • EDM
    • PMI™
    • BD Corporate
    • Bond Pricing
    • ChartIQ
  • CONTENT
    • Latest Headlines
    • Special Features
    • Blog
    • Research
    • Videos
    • Infographics
    • Newsletters
    • Client Case Studies
    PODCASTS
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • IR in Focus
    • Maritime and Trade Talk
    • Masters of Risk
    • Next in Tech
    • Private Markets 360°
    • Street Talk
    • The Pipeline: M&A and IPO Insights
    SEE ALL EPISODES
    SECTOR-SPECIFIC INSIGHTS
    • Differentiated Data
    • Banking & Insurance
    • Energy
    • Maritime, Trade, & Supply Chain
    • Metals & Mining
    • Technology, Media, & Telecoms
    • Investment Research
    • Sector Coverage
    • Expert Directory
    More ways we can help
    NEWS & RESEARCH TOPICS
    • Economics & Country Risk
    • Financial Services
    • Generative AI
    • Liquidity Crunch
    • Maritime & Trade
    • M&A
    • Private Markets
    • Sustainability & Climate
    • Technology
    See More
    • All Events
    • In-Person
    • Webinars
    • Webinar Replays
    Featured Events
    WebinarQ4 Global Economies in Flux: Drive Decisions with the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI®)
    • 12/13/2023
    • Live, Online
    • 10:00 am - 11:00 am EST | 04:00 pm - 05:00 pm CET
    In PersonS&P Global and Stanford GSB Chapter of Hong Kong 7th Annual Financial Forum 2024: Chasing Mega Trends in Turbulent Times
    • 01/18/2024
    • The Ritz-Carlton, Hong Kong
    • 1:00PM - 5:00PM Hong Kong Time
    WebinarOptimism or More Headwinds? State of M&A after a Challenging Year
    • 12/12/2023
    • Live, Online
    • 11:00 AM EST / 4:00 PM BST
  • PLATFORMS
    • S&P Capital IQ Pro
    • S&P Capital IQ
    • S&P Global China Credit Analytics
    • S&P Global Marketplace
    OTHER PRODUCTS
    • Credit Analytics
    • Panjiva
    • Money Market Directories
     
    • Research Online
    • 451 Research
    See All Product Logins

US Economic Service: Short-, mid- and long-term forecasts

Learn more about US Economic Service: Short-, mid- and long-term forecasts

Access the most detailed, commercially-available macroeconomic outlook of the US economy. Now powered by Macroeconomic Advisers by S&P Global, this service provides the immediate-to-long-term US economic forecast – organized to help government agencies, corporations and financial institutions make smart investment and management decisions.

Subscribers receive short-, mid- and long-term US economic outlooks, including alternate scenarios, risk analysis and comprehensive sector outlooks. Underpinning each of our forecasts, the US Macro Model includes up to 2,000 variables and more than 1,500 equations that track virtually every economic activity. From one-page executive summaries for the CEO to data modeling tools for the business analyst, the US Economic Service provides real value across the organization.

Key benefits:

  • Identify growth markets and key product drivers
  • Compare sales and market projections
  • Assess business impact of policy shifts
  • Factor uncertainty into strategic plans
  • Maximize return on investment
Boom and bust is a real risk for the US economy
DOWNLOAD SPECIAL REPORT


What's included

Analysis

Daily commentary

Find insightful analysis of breaking economic, political and financial developments, including implications of key US economic data releases. Set email alerts to receive specific data releases of interest to you.

Categories include:

  • Financial conditions
  • Inflation
  • Consumer markets
  • Employment
  • Housing markets
  • International trade
  • Business investment and production
  • Fiscal policy

Weekly economic commentary

Receive a comprehensive guide to understanding the previous week’s data and understand how the coming week’s data might affect the forecast and markets.

Monthly reports

Explore popular topics:

  • Summaries of high frequency data releases and updates that indicate how the economy could evolve over the short-mid term
  • Reviews of short-term changes that will influence the business environment
  • Examination of the overall economic direction, with historical and forecast data for key US economic indicators
  • Alternative scenarios that examine risks – upside and downside
  • Summaries and analysis for the outlook by sector, including key drivers and issues to watch
  • Short-term interest rate forecasts, with high/low scenarios and a credit review

US GDP Tracking 

Our award-winning US GDP tracking is a real-time forecast of real GDP growth in the current quarter and is updated following nearly every major data release.  At the core of our tracker is a small-scale reproduction of the process by which BEA translates monthly government statistics into official estimates of GDP.  In addition, to expert judgment developed over the last two decades, we employ a suite of proprietary time-series econometric models to guide our assumptions for values of the source data prior to their publication.  As the source data are reported, we replace our assumptions with these data and update our GDP tracking.  

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) coverage

Receive timely summaries detailing our view of the underlying motivations behind the current stance of Federal Reserve policy, the forces shaping decisions, plus our expectations for prospective Fed policy – following each of the eight FOMC meetings.

US Monthly GDP (MGDP) Index

Gain an analytically rigorous understanding of how each release will change the official GDP estimate – far ahead of the government release. We use our US Macro forecasting econometric model, newly released data and revisions, economic judgment, and methods designed to mimic the Bureau of Economic Analysis' data-generation process.

Alternative US and Global Scenarios

Examine scenarios that allow you or your clients to explore the effects of different potential policy outcomes or focus on different assumptions about key data, such as housing or the path of oil prices.

Data and forecasts

Short- and long-term US economic growth projections

Find forecasts that you can trust and justify to senior management. Identify risks to prepare strategic plans for a range of alternative outcomes. Size markets and set sales, revenue and growth targets using accurate benchmarks.

Short-, mid-, and long-term updated forecasts for 2,000+ concepts with access to forecast database.

Forecasts include:

  • GDP expenditure, volume and price components
  • Detailed consumer spending and prices
  • Detailed personal income
  • Business investment (equipment, software, structures) by sector
  • Inventory accumulation by sector
  • Housing and construction
  • Government spending (federal, state, and local)
  • Exports and imports
  • Prices and wages
  • Financial market indicators
  • Energy prices, production and usage
  • Industrial production by sector
  • Balance of payments by major category, international investment position
  • Employment by sector
  • GDP, GNP, national income and its distribution
  • Corporate profits
  • Household wealth, debt and financial obligations
  • Federal, state and local budget balances
  • Motor vehicle sales
  • Productivity and labor costs


Click here to enlarge
Forecast to 2023 Q1 for major GDP components


Click here to enlarge
US consumer spending forecast to 2023 Q1

Financial Sector-Focused Forecast

Get impartial advice on future financial conditions with the near-term outlook for the economic concepts tracked by financial institutions or chief financial officers.

Financial Sector-Focused Forecast Coverage

  • Federal Reserve policy
  • Economic and inflation trends
  • Equity and credit markets
  • Deposit institutions
  • Treasury yield curves
  • Money, capital markets, mortgage and consumer rates
  • Cost of funds
  • Household, business and government balance sheets


Click here to enlarge
Financial sector-focused forecast samples

US Macro Model

Underpinning each of our forecasts, the US Macro Model is a large-scale, structural econometric model that is grounded in mainstream economic theory – estimated by modern econometric techniques that afford users considerable flexibility.

Connect™

Maximize your subscription content with Connect – our state-of-the-art business intelligence platform

  • Real-time reporting: Read updated analysis and commentary as data releases and events warrant
  • Email alerts: Set up notifications for updates to categories of interest
  • Rapid data retrieval: Access analysis and data in a single search or via interactive maps
  • Formatting/presentation tools: Format data by relevant indices and build customizable, presentation-ready graphs
  • Flexible export: Export all forecast tables in multiple formats (Excel, PDF, PowerPoint)
  • Automated content refreshes: Save searches and update content automatically
  • Scenario analysis: Develop your own scenarios with user-friendly tools
Member privileges
  • Analyst access: Connect directly with our award-winning team of 150 full-time economists
  • Webcasts: Email invitations to our US economic-focused webcasts and FOMC meeting reviews, with on-demand availability to listen at your convenience.


Research and Analysis
View All
Blog Dec 05, 2023

Bracing for El Niño’s impact

Blog Dec 05, 2023

A disjointed world: Themes for 2024

Blog Dec 02, 2023

Mexico’s plans for passenger rail service pose risks for rail operators, supply chains

Blog Dec 02, 2023

Semiconductor supply chain outlook


Experts

Chris Varvares

Chris has nearly 40 years of experience in macroeconomic modeling, forecasting and policy analysis, as co-head of US Economics at S&P Global. In his previous role as a principal of Macroeconomic Advisers and as a member of the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisers (1981-1982); he served as a member of the US delegation to the OECD in April 1982. Macroeconomic Advisers was acquired by S&P Global in 2017.He and the S&P Global US economic principals serve as consultants to key agencies of the US and foreign governments, major trade associations, and private corporations, and are widely quoted in the business and financial media. S&P Global (Now a part of S&P Global) is widely recognized as among the most accurate forecasters of the US economy. Chris is a recent past president and a former director of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He served as president of the NABE Gateway chapter in St.Louis and is a member of the American Economic Association.He serves as a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board and has participated in the meetings of the Outside Consultants to the CBO, has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum, and he sits on advisory boards for the Olin Business School at Washington University and the Walker School of Business and Technology at Webster University. Chris holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training (ABD) in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, where he was also a member of the adjunct faculty in both the economics department and the Olin School of Business.He serves as a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board and has participated in the meetings of the Outside Consultants to the CBO, has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum, and he sits on advisory boards for the Olin Business School at Washington University and the Walker School of Business and Technology at Webster University.Chris holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training (ABD) in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, where he was also a member of the adjunct faculty in both the economics department and the Olin School of Business.

  • Economics
  • Country / Territory Risk
  • Global Economics
  • Sourcing and Supply Chain
View Profile

Joel Prakken

A thought-leader on US economic outlook, monetary policy forecasts and fixed income markets with over 30 years of experience and expertise as a macroeconomic modeler, Dr. Joel has developed an unmatched structural-econometric model of the US economy. He co-founded Macroeconomic Advisers which was acquired in 2017. Prior to founding Macroeconomic Advisers, Dr. Joel held the position of senior economist at the World Headquarters of the IBM Corporation and before that he served with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US. He also has held positions on the faculties of New York University's Graduate School of Business, the Economics Department of Washington University, and the Olin School of Business at Washington University. He is the past president and a fellow of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He is also past president of the Gateway Association of Business Economists in Saint Louis. Dr. Joel has many publications to his credit, including papers written for the Council of Economic Advisers, the American Council for Capital Formation, and the Center for the American Study of Business on topics ranging from tax reform to budget policy to monetary policy to the impact of technology on productivity. He has testified on these topics before committees in both the US House of Representatives and the Senate. Dr. Joel has participated in meetings of the Outside Consultants to Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is a past member of the Panel of Economic Consultants to the Congressional Budget Office and is a current member of the advisory committee of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Dr. Joel completed his undergraduate degree in economics at Princeton University, and holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in Saint Louis, United States.

  • Economics
  • Consumer Spending
  • Coronavirus
  • Economic Data
  • Exchange Rates
  • Federal Reserve Policy
  • Fiscal Policy
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • Housing Markets
  • Interest Rates
  • Monetary Policy
  • Nowcasting
  • Political Risk
  • Taxation Risk
View Profile

Ben Herzon

Dr. Herzon focuses on translating recent trends in high-frequency data into a near-term forecast of GDP growth with high statistical precision. That includes directing the analysis of the data, authoring data commentaries, running the current-quarter tracking system, designing and maintaining a population-weighted snowfall database and conducting other research that requires a heavy dose of statistical horsepower. In addition, he writes portions of the forecast reports and conducts and reports research on a variety of macro topics. He joined Macroeconomic Advisers - later acquired by S&P Global (Now a part of S&P Global) - a year prior to receiving his Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in April 1998.His research there focused tracing the effects of monetary policy shocks through various industrial sectors, employing BEA's input-output accounts and time-series econometric techniques. He is a member and previously served as president of the St. Louis Gateway Chapter of NABE.

  • Economics
View Profile

Patrick Newport

Dr. Patrick tracks the investment and construction sectors for the Global Insights Macroeconomic Service and serves on client consulting projects. He manages long-term forecasts for Global Insights and co-manages the macroeconomic model. He joined the company in 1998. Previously, he worked as a research economist for the Washington State Department of Revenue, where he later served as a senior economist for the Office of the Forecast Council of Washington State.He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration and a Master of Arts in Economics from Louisiana State University, US. Dr. Patrick attained his doctorate in Philosophy from Harvard University, US. He speaks English and Spanish.

  • Economics
  • Country / Territory Risk
  • Sourcing and Supply Chain
  • Capital Construction Costs
  • Investment Economics
View Profile

{}

Solutions you may also be interested in

Financial Services Image

US General

Financial Services Image

US GDP

Financial Services Image

Payroll

Economics Image

US Economic Modeling Services

Financial Services Image

Alternative Economic Scenarios

Chemical Image

Chemical Strategic Reports – Processes, Materials & Products Market Research

Economics Image

Post-Pandemic Geopolitics and Economic Solutions

Oil & Gas Upstream Image

Company Strategies and Performance (CSP)

Oil & Gas Upstream Image

Lubricants Competition and Markets

Economics Image

Scenario Analysis

Economics Image

Global Economic Forecasting and Analysis

Economics Image

Custom Modelling, Scenarios and Business Forecasting

Economics Image

US Monthly GDP (MGDP) Index

Economics Image

Government Revenue Forecasting

Economics Image

As Reported Data

Economics Image

Country Risk Investment Model

Economics Image

Economic Analytics: Historical Economic and Financial Data

Economics Image

Economic Forecast Monitor

Explore

  • Maritime & Trade
  • Chemical
  • Oil & Gas Upstream
  • Agribusiness
  • Climate and Sustainability
  • Economic Risk
  • Scenario Planning
  • Industry Monitoring and Trends
  • Market Analysis & Forecasts
{"items" : [ {"name":"facts","url":"","enabled":false,"desc":"","alt":"","mobdesc":"PDF","mobmsg":""},{"name":"login","url":"https://connect.ihsmarkit.com","enabled":true,"desc":"Product Login for existing customers","alt":"Login","large":true,"mobdesc":"Login","mobmsg":"Product Login for existing customers"},{"name":"sales","override":"","number":"[num]","enabled":true,"desc":"Call Sales [num]","proddesc":"[num]","alt":"Call Sales</br>[num]","mobdesc":"Sales","mobmsg":"Call Sales: [num]"}, {"name":"share","enabled":true,"desc":"<strong>Share</strong>","mobdesc":"Share","options":[ {"name":"facebook","url":"https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fproducts%2fus-economic-short-long-term-forecasts.html","enabled":true},{"name":"twitter","url":"https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fproducts%2fus-economic-short-long-term-forecasts.html&text=US+Economic+Service+-+Short-+and+Long-Term+Forecasts+%7c+S%26P+Global","enabled":true},{"name":"linkedin","url":"https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fproducts%2fus-economic-short-long-term-forecasts.html","enabled":true},{"name":"email","url":"?subject=US Economic Service - Short- and Long-Term Forecasts | S&P Global&body=http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fproducts%2fus-economic-short-long-term-forecasts.html","enabled":true},{"name":"whatsapp","url":"https://api.whatsapp.com/send?text=US+Economic+Service+-+Short-+and+Long-Term+Forecasts+%7c+S%26P+Global http%3a%2f%2fwww.spglobal.com%2fmarketintelligence%2fen%2fmi%2fproducts%2fus-economic-short-long-term-forecasts.html","enabled":true}]}, {"name":"rtt","enabled":true,"mobdesc":"Top"} ]}
Filter Sort
  • About Us
  • Quality Program
  • Contact Us
  • Email Subscription Center
  • Press Releases
  • Careers
  • Corporate Responsibility
  • Our History
  • Investor Relations
  • Leadership
  • © 2023 S&P Global
  • Terms of Use
  • Cookie Notice
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclosures
  • Do Not Sell My Personal Information