US Economic Modeling and Forecasting Services

The combination of two award-winning forecast groups, Macroeconomic Advisers^® by IHS Markit, and the IHS Markit economics unit, means we can now offer our customers a full suite of economic modeling services and software. Developed and licensed by Macroeconomic Advisers, the best-in-class US macro model complements our existing global and US regional modeling expertise. Find short- and long-term forecasts, with alternative outlooks, featuring superb transparency and coverage:

US Macro Model
US Regional Model
Alternative US and Global Scenarios
Global Link Model

Key benefits:

Consistency – Access US national, state and metro forecasts that rely on our award-winning US Macro Model
Timeliness – Improve forecast accuracy with quarterly-updated US and monthly-updated regional models and analysis, including continuously released perspectives, briefings and watches
Expertise – Leverage the unique IHS Markit knowledge base spanning numerous industries to inform and adjust model inputs
Horizon – Choose from short, medium and long-term outlooks
Specialization – Connect with our 16 national and consumer economists and 10 regional economists for forecasting assistance
Methodology – Achieve more accurate forecasts with our individually modeled state and metro forecast series and expert-reviewed model outputs to account and adjust for recent, relevant local developments
Alternative Scenarios – Receive the optimistic and pessimistic alternative outlook to our national, state and metro forecasts and financial stress testing

Boom and bust is a real risk for the US economy

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US Economy: Steady growth + rising inflation

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Types of questions our models can answer

How fast is the economy (employment, unemployment, inflation, equities, rates) likely to grow over the next quarter, year, decade?
How does a particular data release affect the outlook?
How inflation-prone is the US economy?
When will the Fed next raise rates? How does the balance sheet policy impact the pace of tightening? What are the implications of higher rates on economic growth?
Is the market appropriately pricing the timing of the next Federal Reserve move?
How will financial market returns be impacted by Federal Reserve policy?
Where are labor markets strongest in the United States?
What will consumers be spending their money on in five years?
How would a government shutdown affect the US economy?
Which sectors are likely to drive a recovery? What warning signs should market participants follow?
How would alternative outcomes affect the S&P Global forecast?

US Macro Model

Underpinning each of our forecasts, our award-winning US Macro Model is a large-scale, structural econometric model that is grounded in mainstream economic theory and estimated by modern econometric techniques. The model explains entries from all major tables of the National Income and Product Accounts and provides a wealth of detail on prices, labor markets, financial markets and the household balance sheet. In addition, it affords users considerable flexibility in specifying monetary and fiscal policies.

Capabilities – Our economists can help you:

Construct alternative scenarios, including those consistent with your own organization's view
Choose from 2,000 economic, financial and business concepts
Measure change in the economy's composition
Incorporate short-run aggregate demand and long-term aggregate supply into equations

US real GDP growth, 2016-2018 Q1

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US key interest rates, 2000-2020

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Comprehensive Coverage

Concepts

Financial sector
Business environment
Energy prices
Industrial production
Wages
Balance of payments
Exports
Imports

Variables

2,000+ indicators

Frequency

Quarterly forecast for US national economy

Forecast and historical data

Short, medium and long-term forecasts
30+ years of historical data (some variation by concept)

US Regional Model

The US Regional Model enables you to forecast population, income and industry activity across 9 regions, all 50 states, 380+ metropolitan areas and 3,100+ counties. Marketing and sales professionals use this model to set internal sales targets while government economists use it to predict the economic impact of polices or events, such as new investments or natural disasters, on regions, states, cities or counties.

Capabilities – Our economists can help you:

Construct alternative scenarios, including those consistent with your own organization's view
Choose from 300+ economic, financial and business concepts
Measure change in the economy's composition
Incorporate short-run aggregate demand and long-term aggregate supply into equations

Comprehensive Coverage

Concepts

Economic structure: Relative costs, economic health, trends
Industry profile: Major employers, business environment, real estate analysis
Employment structure: Worker productivity, wages, demographics

Variables

340 variables for each state
110 variables for reach metro area
46 variables for each country

Frequency

Monthly forecast for all states and metro areas
Semi-annual, long-term forecast for 3,100+ countries

Forecast and historical data

30-year forecasts
30+ years of historical data (some variation by concept)

Special details

Mortgage origination
Business Costs Index for 113 metro areas
Job losses and gains

Alternative US and Global Scenarios

Financial institutions needing to understand their total risk profile use our proven model-based macro scenarios to conduct rigorous stress tests that meet regulatory requirements, provide transparency and promote confidence in existing business practices.

Global Link Model

Quantify the impact of global economic change on your company's performance with the Global Link Model (GLM), the most comprehensive model of its kind that is commercially available. Updated quarterly, the GLM links 68 individual country models with each other and with key global drivers of performance to produce 30-year forecasts, covering more countries and time series – 250 to 500 per country – than any other market offering.

Experts

Chris Varvares

Chris has nearly 40 years of experience in macroeconomic modeling, forecasting and policy analysis, as co-head of US Economics at S&P Global (Now a part of S&P Global), in his previous role as a principal of Macroeconomic Advisers and as a member of the staff of the President's Council of Economic Advisers (1981-1982); he served as a member of the US delegation to the OECD in April 1982. Macroeconomic Advisers was acquired by S&P Global in 2017.He and the S&P Global (Now a part of S&P Global) US economic principals serve as consultants to key agencies of the US and foreign governments, major trade associations, and private corporations, and are widely quoted in the business and financial media. S&P Global (Now a part of S&P Global) is widely recognized as among the most accurate forecasters of the US economy. Chris is a recent past president and a former director of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He served as president of the NABE Gateway chapter in St.Louis and is a member of the American Economic Association.He serves as a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board and has participated in the meetings of the Outside Consultants to the CBO, has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum, and he sits on advisory boards for the Olin Business School at Washington University and the Walker School of Business and Technology at Webster University. Chris holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training (ABD) in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, where he was also a member of the adjunct faculty in both the economics department and the Olin School of Business. He serves as a member of the New York State Economic and Revenue Advisory Board and has participated in the meetings of the Outside Consultants to the CBO, has been a panelist for the World Economic Forum, and he sits on advisory boards for the Olin Business School at Washington University and the Walker School of Business and Technology at Webster University.Chris holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from The George Washington University and received his graduate training (ABD) in Economics from Washington University in St. Louis, where he was also a member of the adjunct faculty in both the economics department and the Olin School of Business.

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Joel Prakken

A thought-leader on US economic outlook, monetary policy forecasts and fixed income markets with over 30 years of experience and expertise as a macroeconomic modeler, Dr. Joel has developed an unmatched structural-econometric model of the US economy. He co-founded Macroeconomic Advisers which was acquired in 2017. Prior to founding Macroeconomic Advisers, Dr. Joel held the position of senior economist at the World Headquarters of the IBM Corporation and before that he served with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US. He also has held positions on the faculties of New York University's Graduate School of Business, the Economics Department of Washington University, and the Olin School of Business at Washington University. He is the past president and a fellow of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). He is also past president of the Gateway Association of Business Economists in Saint Louis. Dr. Joel has many publications to his credit, including papers written for the Council of Economic Advisers, the American Council for Capital Formation, and the Center for the American Study of Business on topics ranging from tax reform to budget policy to monetary policy to the impact of technology on productivity. He has testified on these topics before committees in both the US House of Representatives and the Senate. Dr. Joel has participated in meetings of the Outside Consultants to Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is a past member of the Panel of Economic Consultants to the Congressional Budget Office and is a current member of the advisory committee of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.Dr. Joel completed his undergraduate degree in economics at Princeton University, and holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in Saint Louis, United States.

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Ken Matheny

Ken has more than two decades of experience as a professional economist and macroeconomic forecaster, including economic analysis, econometrics, and financial modeling. He is an expert on Federal Reserve policies, macroeconomic impacts, and interactions with the banking and financial sectors.He writes frequently on macroeconomics, financial markets, and the Federal Reserve. He maintains regular contact with clients and is available for media engagements. He has appeared in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, Marketplace, and other US and foreign media outlets. Prior to joining S&P Global, he was a Senior Economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. He was an assistant professor at Purdue University and worked in the banking industry.He holds a Ph.D. from UCLA and a Bachelor of Arts degree from Washington University in St. Louis (Economics and German), magna cum laude.

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Patrick Newport

Dr. Patrick tracks the investment and construction sectors for the Global Insights Macroeconomic Service and serves on client consulting projects. He manages long-term forecasts for Global Insights and co-manages the macroeconomic model. He joined the company in 1998. Previously, he worked as a research economist for the Washington State Department of Revenue, where he later served as a senior economist for the Office of the Forecast Council of Washington State.He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Business Administration and a Master of Arts in Economics from Louisiana State University, US. Dr. Patrick attained his doctorate in Philosophy from Harvard University, US. He speaks English and Spanish.

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Sara Johnson

In this role, Sara helps clients assess worldwide business and financial opportunities and risks. Sara co-authors the Global Executive Summary manages the Executive Strategy Council, and presents the economic outlook to international conferences. She previously served as North American research director and chief regional economist with Standard & Poor's DRI, and managing director of global macroeconomics with Global Insight, predecessors of S&P Global Economics & Country Risk that is now part of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Sara is a former director of the National Association for Business Economics and the NABE Foundation and was named an NABE Fellow in 2014. She is past president of The Boston Economic Club and a member of the American Economic Association.Sara holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Mathematics from Wellesley College, US, and earned her Master of Arts in Economics from Harvard University, US, with concentrations in Finance and Macroeconomic Theory.

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Michael Konidaris

Michael leads the product development for the CECL implementation by financial institutions. His responsibilities include the construction of cross-asset class econometric models, the development of forecasts for Libor, Swap and Corporate Bond rates, and the construction of simulations of global economic scenarios to evaluate the P&L of clients' portfolios.Michael joined S&P Global through the 2017 acquisition of Macroeconomic Advisers. He has worked as an economic consultant on the forecasting team at Roubini Global Economics and as a research intern at The Midway Group, a hedge fund specializing in the US residential mortgage market. He completed his military service as a sailor at the Hellenic Navy and co-founded and served at the board of directors of AUEB's Investment and Finance Club, the first ever finance club in a Greek University. Michael holds a Bachelor of Science degree in accounting and finance from Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB), Greece, and a Master of Arts degree in economics from New York University (NYU), US.

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Ben Herzon

Dr. Herzon focuses on translating recent trends in high-frequency data into a near-term forecast of GDP growth with high statistical precision. That includes directing the analysis of the data, authoring data commentaries, running the current-quarter tracking system, designing and maintaining a population-weighted snowfall database and conducting other research that requires a heavy dose of statistical horsepower. In addition, he writes portions of the forecast reports and conducts and reports research on a variety of macro topics. He joined Macroeconomic Advisers - later acquired by S&P Global (Now a part of S&P Global) - a year prior to receiving his Ph.D. in economics from Washington University in April 1998.His research there focused tracing the effects of monetary policy shocks through various industrial sectors, employing BEA's input-output accounts and time-series econometric techniques. He is a member and previously served as president of the St. Louis Gateway Chapter of NABE.

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Juan Turcios

Juan is a member of the technical team responsible for producing model output for the Federal Reserve's Supervisory Scenarios and BHC Idiosyncratic Scenarios, including estimating and managing custom-client auxiliary models. Since joining the firm in October 2016, his primary responsibilities have included performing data analysis, contributing to client publications, and assisting in large-scale research projects.Juan holds a master's degree in economics from Washington University in St. Louis, United States.

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Customer Logins

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US Economic Modeling and Forecasting Services

US Macro Model

Comprehensive Coverage

US Regional Model

Comprehensive Coverage

Experts

Chris Varvares

Joel Prakken

Ken Matheny

Patrick Newport

Sara Johnson

Michael Konidaris

Ben Herzon

Juan Turcios

Follow S&P Global on Twitter

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