Post-Pandemic Geopolitics and Economic Solutions

Gain a better understanding of the post-pandemic geopolitical impact, the global economy and specific geographies and sectors

The Covid-19 pandemic is now a long-term planning reality. Corporations and businesses are shifting their focus from the initial crisis management led response phase of the pandemic (focusing on safety and security of personnel and assets), towards a more strategic review of business resilience and strategy. Are you ready? Our Economics & Country Risk experts are uniquely positioned to help you evaluate situations, exposures, specific opportunities or ventures in light of new and evolving global challenges.

Do you have a solid strategy for a post-pandemic world?

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How S&P Global can support your business

Scenario analysis for crisis management and strategic planning

Whether we are looking at a health crisis, a natural disaster, or political upheaval, our team will develop specific scenario narratives and pathways for policy responses, economic shifts, and industry challenges. We offer insights into the dynamics relevant for your geographies and sectors of interest enabling you to set a steady path forward amidst uncertainty.

Working closely with you to explore relevant scenarios and impacts

Scenarios workshop
2 hours led by our economists, country risk and industry experts. The workshop convenes senior leadership representatives from across your business to ensure all perspectives are captured. The workshop would include a brief presentation of our Geopolitical Scenarios for 2025, followed by a brainstorming session to identify your top concerns in terms of business impacts, before exploring geopolitical and industry themes and indicators leading to these.
Customized scenario reports and pathways and impacts
Based on insights captured during the workshop, we will build up to three bespoke macro-level 5-year scenarios, with associated sets of geopolitical and industry indicators to monitor, and qualitative and quantitative assessment of impacts, for approval by your team before delivery in a final report.
Quarterly update reports
To help you track developments and which scenario is becoming more likely, we provide quarterly update reports in the following 12-month period containing alerts and analysis of which indicators have been triggered that are relevant to the scenarios and associated impacts.

Opportunity assessments

Evaluate specific opportunities or ventures in light of new and evolving global challenges. Work with us to understand how politics, economics and industry dynamics will affect the opportunity at hand – any risks introduced by the pandemic and the impacts it is generating, and how to quantify these effectively. We take an intelligence-led approach to new market entry enabling you to businesses build new ventures and scale them in emerging markets.

Support can include

Customized reports for emerging markets
Deep dives on the emerging markets you identify as core to your market entry plans. We provide actionable insights into the stakeholder and competitive landscape, untapped industry and regulatory trends to exploit, quantifying and qualifying new opportunities, and comparative benchmarking of similar markets in a region. Our analysis is always forward-looking, taking critical challenges like the pandemic into account.
Risk quantification
We identify and quantify future challenges to new ventures in emerging markets with a focus on macrosystemic market risks, barriers to entry, and compliance/regulatory risks. We can translate country-level risks into likely impact on project cashflow, NPV and IRR. Learn more.
Business partner vetting in emerging markets Our consulting team specializes in stakeholder and third-party vetting specifically in relation to their integrity/reputational profile and their track record of operation in a particular market.
Executive, governmental and public-facing reports and presentations
Our experts can provide public facing materials that communicate the benefit of your investment in a particular market to government and the wider public. Rigorous social and economic impact analysis underpins these and provide an objective expert view.

Expert briefings

Our experts across geopolitics, economics and industry, and life sciences track global developments and indicators on a daily basis to form views on what it all means for our clients.

Support can include

Executive workshops and custom presentations
Executive team workshops and presentations to inform decision makings, help untangle the significance and impacts of global developments booked directly with our consulting team. Book now
Experts by S&P Global
Shorter single-issue discussions or meetings can be booked through Experts by S&P Global

Built on a foundation of excellence in custom solutions, modelling, and scenario creation

Scenarios

Geopolitical
Anchored in our geopolitics expertise our team will develop scenarios that help set a plan for growth and resilience
Industry Scenario Service
Our experts can help you understand which industries and geographies will feel the consequences of an economic or geopolitical incident
Economic Scenarios
Understand the effect of changes in commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary and financial policy, energy prices, demographics and more as you build your new strategic plans.
Financial
Utilizing our deep knowledge of the financial industry, economic drivers, and risk profiles, we can help you quantify your total risk profile, conduct rigorous stress tests, provide transparency, and promote confidence.

Modelling

Country Risk Investment Model
Utilizing our country expertise, sector analysis, and granular risk scores we can forecasts and measure the expected financial impact different types of risk will have on cash flows and investment returns and activities.
Healthcare
Our life sciences team can help you develop trusted plans that take into account new market entry plans, drug pricing, disease prevalence and burden, essential workforce planning, and hospital operational models.

Custom Solutions

Integrity Due Diligence
A commercial view on any possible risks you could face with a new partner, as well as an assessment of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses.
Stakeholder Influence Mapping
An independent assessment of which risks are likely to serve as priorities for potential investors and examples from other jurisdictions on how these risks have impacted inward investment.
Economic Impact
Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
Government Revenue
Quantify how economic and policy changes impact your jurisdictions’ capacity to plan, budget and deliver vital public services

Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Her areas of specialization include analysis of political developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa, particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Natznet leads the development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Natznet was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.Natznet regularly speaks in major media outlets and at high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing megacities and national governments on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa. Natznet degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.

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Carlos Cardenas

Carlos, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration, civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks (extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Carlos has also worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal dynamics in Latin America and political economy.He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.

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Keerti Rajan

The Integrated Research team works with our experts to combine proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk, and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis that helps our clients make effective business decisions. He has previously led the Asia-Pacific desk and the Political Risk desk for our Country Risk team where he was responsible for the global calibration of political and business risks and development of the Country Risk team's methodology. He assessed systemic credit and liquidity risks to UK financial stability for the Bank of England; built stochastic models to forecast capital adequacy for financial companies at Moore Stephens Consulting; and worked in RBS's equity derivatives business.He earned a Ph.D. in political economy at the University of Cambridge with a thesis on the social epidemiology of income inequality in India. His previous academic work compared Indonesia and Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis.

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Anna Boyd

She was previously the head of MENA corporate investigations at FTI Consulting where she managed many complex multi-jurisdictional matters in the field of integrity due diligence, asset tracing and litigation support, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Libya.Prior to her move into consulting, she was head of the Middle East and North Africa Country Risk Forecasting team at S&P Global, responsible for political risk forecasting, scenario modelling and quantitative risk scoring across the whole region. Anna has led on projects including devising a political risk model relating to the security of Qatari food imports, managing a series of in-depth MENA region country studies for a US government client, and war-gaming possible future developments in the Syria conflict. She has provided expert comment to several media outlets including Al Jazeera, Reuters and the BBC. Anna started her career as an Arabic linguist with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.Anna holds an MA with Distinction in Arabic from the School of Oriental and African Studies, having written her dissertation on 1950s-60s Iraqi poetry. She also holds a 1st class honors degree in Arabic from the University of Edinburgh and studied in Cairo and Damascus. She speaks French and Arabic.

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Karim El Assir

As a member of the Economics & Country Risk consulting team, Karim is responsible for advising clients on strategies to build and scale business abroad, particularly in emerging markets. He also provides guidance around understanding the political and operating landscape of markets in the Middle East and Africa and assessing and mitigating counterparty risk to support mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures. He joined S&P Global from KPMG, where he led the MENA desk on its Corporate Intelligence team, providing clients with advisory services in the region. These included helping to develop new market entry strategies, gathering on-the-ground intelligence to assess the extent of a company's exposure to a variety of non-financial risks, and managing compliance and reputational crises post-market entry. His previous professional background is in political risk. Prior to joining KPMG, he helped start a political and economic risk consultancy based in Cairo, where he led the firm's research on the political environments of several Middle Eastern states.Karim has degrees from the School of Oriental and African Studies in London and the University College of Maastricht, and has lived and worked in Egypt, Germany, Morocco, the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia.

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Research & Analysis

Blog Yesterday

The outlook for inflation? It's sticky

Blog Sep 19, 2023

US Weekly Economic Commentary: Growth above trend as FOMC meets

Blog Sep 18, 2023

The greening of the iPhone supply chain

Blog Sep 14, 2023

G20 Summit in India

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Post-Pandemic Geopolitics and Economic Solutions

Gain a better understanding of the post-pandemic geopolitical impact, the global economy and specific geographies and sectors

How S&P Global can support your business

Working closely with you to explore relevant scenarios and impacts

Opportunity assessments

Expert briefings

Built on a foundation of excellence in custom solutions, modelling, and scenario creation

Experts

Natznet Tesfay

Carlos Cardenas

Keerti Rajan

Anna Boyd

Karim El Assir