September 2025: Brazil experiences strong winds but suboptimal solar radiation

At the close of September, Brazil's wind energy operating capacity tracked by S&P Global stood at 28,243 MW, with wind speed deviations showing a monthly increase of 5.0% and a year-to-date rise of 1.9%. In the solar energy sector, Brazil's tracked operating capacity reached 14,606 MW, but the month saw a slight deviation in solar radiation of negative 1.1%, despite a year-to-date increase of 2.1%. The tracked solar capacity does not include the significant amount of distributed solar generation in Brazil. In September, clouds in Pernambuco led to a negative monthly deviation of 14.4% in solar radiation from the state's 1,082-MW capacity.

Wind

Bahia continues to dominate the wind energy scene, with the highest operating capacity of 9,143 MW, along with a monthly deviation of 8.1% and a year-to-date increase of 2.8%. In September, the 7,975 MW of tracked capacity in Rio Grande do Norte showed slight increases of 1.7% in monthly deviation and 0.8% year to date. Piauí exceeded average performance with positive deviations of 9.6% in the month and 6.0% year to date from its 3,397-MW capacity.

Among individual projects, the Usina Eólica Rio Do Vento in Rio Grande do Norte led with a capacity of 1,038 MW, showing a steady monthly deviation of 1.4% and a year-to-date increase of 0.2%. In contrast, the Usina Eólica Chui Minuano in Rio Grande do Sul faced a challenging month, recording a negative deviation of 6.9% from its 46.0-MW capacity.

Solar

Minas Gerais led in solar capacity at 5,812 MW, experiencing a monthly deviation of negative 1.1% and a year-to-date increase of 1.5% in September. São Paulo is on the rise, achieving the highest positive monthly deviation at 6.8% from its 796-MW capacity. For year-to-date performance, São Paulo again excelled, with a positive deviation of 4.5% in solar radiation, while Pernambuco reported a slight decline of 0.2%.

The Complexo Solar Janauba in Minas Gerais remains the largest solar project, with a capacity of 1,600 MW, reporting a monthly deviation of negative 2.1% and a year-to-date increase of 1.1%. The Usina Solar Tanquinho in São Paulo, with a capacity of 1.1 MW, reported the highest positive monthly deviation at 9.3%. In contrast, the Usina Solar Ufv Fontes in Pernambuco faced the largest negative monthly deviation at 18.7% from its 11.0-MW capacity.

Solar radiation is the mean surface downward shortwave radiation flux, measured from the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis. This variable includes direct and diffuse solar radiation and is the model equivalent of global horizontal irradiance — the value measured by a pyranometer, a solar radiation measuring instrument. Wind speed is the value 100 meters above the ground from the same dataset. The data is available at quarter-degree latitudes and longitudes, with a spacing of slightly over 27.5 km. This analysis compares the September 2025 values with the 20-year average (2004–2023) for September.

Data visualization by Zain Ullah.
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