Monetary Policy in Focus: Takeaways from an exclusive S&P Global Fireside Chat with the Bank of Canada

On November 4, 2026, S&P Global Market Intelligence hosted an exclusive, by-invitation-only event, “Monetary Policy in Focus: A Fireside Chat with the Bank of Canada.” Nicolas Vincent, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, joined this timely central banking discussion. From S&P Global Market Intelligence, Patricia Medina led the event and participated as a speaker and moderator together with Christopher Fenske, Head of Capital Markets Research, Primary Markets Group.

Executive Summary

• Four forces are shaping the fixed income backdrop: an energy shock, a trade war, policy divergence, and heavy AI-related debt supply.
• Canadian core inflation is holding near 2% despite higher oil prices, as exports have increased with greater geographic diversification. With a low public debt-to-GDP ratio relative to G7 peers, Canada has fiscal room going into 2027.
• The Bank of Canada’s October 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects inflation above 3% through much of 2027 before easing to about 2% by mid-2028, with growth strengthening to 2% in 2027 and 2028.

Fixed Income Market Update

Patricia shared insights on the fixed income market around secular forces: a meaningful rise in Brent crude price, U.S. tariffs, a Fed–Bank of Canada policy rate gap at the widest in a decade, and about $240 billion of hyperscaler bond issuance year to date.

She also discussed interest rates, credit default swaps, and Canadian and U.S. economic indicators, including inflation rate, labor market level, gross domestic product, and purchasing managers’ index. The implications of these factors are key to central bank decision making. This section also included a broader G7 perspective.

Central banks around the world use the proprietary S&P Global Country PMI® offering to track economic conditions and inform policy decisions. The related monthly data are widely used by economists, investors, corporates, and government agencies to assess economic prospects. A recent reading of the S&P Global PMI-based Bank of Canada policy indicator shows some correlation with actual policy changes.

In the U.S., core PCE has held well above the Fed’s threshold, while PMI survey results point to directionality. Fiscal strain across the G7 is showing up in markets: 5-year CDS spreads are under upward pressure led by France and Italy as of the end of October, while iBoxx $ Liquid Investment Grade and High Yield Indices’ spreads are ticking up and 2-year/10-year yield curves in Canada and the U.S. have steepened.

Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Overview and Fireside Chat

Deputy Governor Vincent presented on monetary policy, and Christopher led an engaging discussion with active audience participation. The Bank of Canada recently released its October 2026 Monetary Policy Report describing an economy on firmer footing but facing higher inflation. It also introduced Prima, the bank’s new macroeconomic model for projection and policy analysis.

Webinar Replay

The webinar replay, available until November 6, includes the fixed income market update, insightful charts, and research articles. It also includes links to relevant resources such as the upcoming 2027 Big Picture Industry Outlook Reports to be published mid-November.