BLOG — Oct. 13, 2026
Picture This: An Uneven AI Transition
Artificial intelligence adoption is accelerating across industries, creating opportunities for stronger productivity and economic growth. An uneven transition could widen differences among economies and disrupt employment, particularly in countries and occupations that are less prepared for rapid technological change.
What we know
Around 22% of firms globally dedicated resources to AI projects in 2025, while 28% planned to invest in AI in 2026, according to an S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index special survey.
The clearest benefits so far have been productivity and efficiency gains. A net 39% of firms reported that AI improved productivity in 2025, and most expected further gains as adoption expanded.
The early employment effects are mixed. Although productivity gains are widespread, the overall effect on employment has turned slightly negative. Job losses have been concentrated in larger companies and in routine, medium-skilled functions.
This scenario assumes an uneven AI transition characterized by:
- Higher investment in AI-related capital
- Faster productivity growth
- Greater variation in employment effects by workers' skill levels
Why it matters
Workforce reskilling and talent strategy will be critical to capturing AI benefits while managing operational risks such as cyber attacks.
Companies should expect growing regional and talent-related divergences that will influence investment, location, and workforce decisions. Advanced economies like the US will continue to attract significant AI investment.
What happens next
AI leaders would pull further ahead, with the US, mainland China, Singapore, South Korea and Japan capturing the largest economic gains.
Employment disruption would be concentrated in emerging markets. India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Vietnam and Egypt would face the largest net job losses.
Growth would rise, but divergence widens. AI would boost global GDP, yet the gap between AI-ready and less prepared economies would expand across growth, jobs and income. World GDP would be 1% above baseline by the end of 2029 and 2.5% to 3.0% above baseline at the start of 2036.
By 2036, economies benefiting the most would gain 1.41 million jobs, and 2.13 million jobs would be lost in the economies most disrupted.
—Sacha Tenenbaum, Elliot Annarella, Zimbali Mcunu
This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.