Apple earnings preview: Q4 2026

Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) expected total revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter has increased since late February but remains flat at $113.6 billion compared with the previous quarter, according to Visible Alpha consensus. Sentiment seems to reflect a view that iPhone sales are stable, with revenue from the Greater China segment up 28% and users continuing to upgrade in the US. Since the previous quarter, fiscal 2026 iPhone units have ticked up to 261 million from 258 million, up 3 million units. The fourth quarter is expected to deliver $56.4 billion in iPhone sales, $252.4 billion in fiscal 2026 and $277.4 billion in fiscal 2027. Overall, significant questions remain about the supply chain and whether Apple can meet demand for upgrades and the new Duo foldable phone in the first quarter of 2027.

The company's guidance for the key first-quarter holiday selling season will provide insight into the business, especially for the iPhone. For the first quarter of 2027, consensus estimates project $88.9 billion in iPhone revenue and total revenue of $153.0 billion, supporting an expected earnings per share of $2.93.

Expectations for the high-margin services segment in the fourth quarter have edged down slightly since the previous quarter to $31.7 billion. The gross margin for the services segment is over 75%, significantly higher than the 37% gross margin for products. Given the large installed base, we look forward to what the company says in the fourth-quarter earnings release about potential growth in services, the role of Apple Intelligence and the new Duo foldable phone in fiscal 2027.

Apple stock has risen 18.4% since May and 27.5% year to date, outperforming the S&P 500. The consensus price-to-earnings ratio for 2027 is 33x, with a consensus target price of $342 and an implied return of negative 1.3%. Could the fourth-quarter release and outlook confirm the next leg of growth and drive further outperformance in the stock?

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