Volkswagen’s Euro Stoxx 50 exit adds to pressure on a weak 2026 growth outlook

Volkswagen AG (FWB: VOW) has been removed from the Euro Stoxx 50, effective from the market open on Monday, September 21, in the latest setback for the German carmaker. The exit, which follows the annual review by index provider STOXX, comes just days after Volkswagen warned that about €10 billion one-off charges would push its 2026 operating margin down to no more than 1%, from previous guidance of 4% to 5.5%. More than €6 billion of the charges relate to a write down at Porsche Automobil Holding SE, reflecting weaker medium-term expectations for the luxury brand.

The index change is a mechanical consequence of Volkswagen’s falling free-float market value, but has practical implications. Funds tracking the Euro Stoxx 50 will need to rebalance their portfolios, adding another source of selling pressure to a stock that has already fallen about 30% this year.

Visible Alpha consensus points to further pressure on the top line in 2026, with revenue expected to decline 0.6% year-on-year to €319.9 billion. Automotive revenue is forecast to fall 1.1%, partly offset by 2% growth in financial services revenue to €63.3 billion.
Within automotive, the weakness is concentrated in passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, where revenue is expected to decline 7% to €227.5 billion. Commercial vehicle sales are forecast to grow 8% to €46.1 billion.

The volume outlook remains challenging. Analysts expect deliveries to fall 5% to 8.49 million vehicles in 2026, while production is projected to decline 7% to 8.26 million units.

The combination of falling volumes and a weak passenger-car outlook comes as Volkswagen faces a particularly difficult transition in China, alongside a shift in demand towards battery-electric vehicles that the company says is weighing on its AUDI AG and Volkswagen Passenger Cars brands.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.