US retailers expect September to be busiest month of year for imports

Supply chain disruption highlighted by storm-related vessel delays in China and draft restrictions along the Panama Canal are combining to extend peak shipping season into September, which may end up being the busiest month of 2026 for US imports, a major retail group said Wednesday.

The Global Port Tracker (GPT), published monthly by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, forecasts that 2.31 million TEUs of imports will cross US docks this month, surpassing the year-to-date high of 2.3 million TEUs set in July.

“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that’s not the case,” Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said a statement accompanying the GPT.

Gold noted some of the import volumes being handled now and in the coming weeks have been delayed by a series of typhoons that have hit key load ports in China in recent weeks and by increasing draft restrictions at the Panama Canal forcing the rerouting of some vessels.

“But consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices, and retailers keep bringing in merchandise to meet demand,” he said.

In its prior port tracker released Aug. 7, the NRF said peak shipping season was “coming to an end.” And while that end has been extended through September, the group did provide a downward revision for the fourth quarter, indicating that imports for October, November and December are now expected to be lower than last month’s forecast.

In its first forecast for January 2027, the NRF pegs imports at 2.09 million TEUs, down 1% year over year.

July’s year-to-date import high would track with data appearing on the Journal of Commerce’s Gateway platform. According to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, US imports from Asia in July climbed to 1.74 million TEUs, the highest so far this year. For China alone, imports of 946,320 TEUs in July were also the high watermark of 2026 to date.

“Imports have remained buoyant over the past three months despite several hurdles,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said in the GPT statement, citing increased tariffs from the Trump administration and higher oil prices linked to the war with Iran. “Retail sales remain strong and cargo is moving relatively smoothly, although there are reports of vessel delays and increased times required for cargo to move through the supply chain.”

Despite the supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs, the typhoons in China and forecasts for prolonged low-water conditions at the Panama Canal, the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA), whose members are primarily larger retailers, also anticipates continued strong imports this fall.

In a press briefing Wednesday with Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, RILA CEO Brian Dodge said much, but not all, of the holiday merchandise was imported during the spring and summer, starting with an early peak season that began in earnest in May amid a frontloading spree driven in part by US tariff deadlines.

“But everything is not in,” Dodge said. “They will bring it in for the next several months to meet demand.”

The GPT forecasts imports at 13 US ports: Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville and Houston.

This article was originally published by the Journal of Commerce on Sept. 9, 2026.