US refiners set for sharp 2026 profit growth as global fuel markets tighten

Major US independent refiners, Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE: PBF) and HF Sinclair Corp. (NYSE: DINO) are poised for a sharp improvement in refining profitability in 2026, as disruptions to global fuel supply have widened margins.

Visible Alpha consensus points to a significant increase in both realized refining gross profit and realized refining gross profit per barrel across all four companies in 2026. The improvement reflects a more favorable refining environment after a period of relatively subdued margins.

The key swing factor is the crack spread, which measures the difference between the price of refined products such as gasoline and diesel and the cost of crude oil. Refining margins have widened sharply this year as the conflict involving Iran and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz have curtailed global flows, while attacks and outages have taken refining capacity offline in the Middle East and Russia.

The supply shock is particularly favorable for US refiners. US has abundant domestic crude supplies while its large refining system gives producers the ability to redirect barrels towards international markets when overseas supply is disrupted.

For Valero, Phillips 66, PBF Energy and HF Sinclair, analysts expect the combination of wider product cracks, high refinery utilization, and stronger export demand to translate into a substantial growth in 2026 refining gross profits.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.