Picture This: 2026 US Midterm Elections Could Reshape Policy Risk

Democrats need a net gain of three seats to achieve a majority in the House of Representatives. To gain control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 seats, Democrats would need to win at least two contests in states where President Trump, a Republican, won by more than 11 percentage points.

While current polling suggests Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage, Republicans retain structural advantages, including favorable redistricting, campaign cash and a Senate map tilted toward Republican-led states.

We analyze three scenarios:

• Democrats win both chambers;
• Democrats win the House while Republicans keep the Senate;
• Republicans retain both chambers.

Across all scenarios, President Trump will likely continue to rely on executive actions to pursue priorities particularly on trade and environmental and financial deregulation.

Congressional control will shape whether the next two years are defined by oversight and vetoes, divided-government bargaining or a renewed push behind the Trump administration’s domestic agenda.

In the first two scenarios, legislative gridlock would likely intensify as Democrats use congressional control to block Republican priorities, pursue oversight, and test the limits of the administration’s executive authority. Bipartisan agreement would still be possible in areas such as infrastructure, data centers, artificial intelligence policy and certain healthcare measures.

If Republicans retain both the House and Senate, the administration would probably treat the result as validation of its America First agenda. That outcome would create more room for additional tax-cutting measures, Affordable Care Act changes, immigration restrictions, trade actions and faster confirmation of judicial and executive nominees.

The lame-duck period after the election could also prove consequential. If Republicans lose either chamber, they would likely seek to advance confirmations and funding packages before the new Congress is seated. Government funding deadlines, contested election claims, or delayed certifications of election results could further raise the risk of shutdowns, litigation, protests and disruption before January 2027.

The outcome will help define both parties’ positioning ahead of the 2028 presidential election, influencing Democratic policy debates and the Republican succession field.

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.