Neste’s renewables business set to drive 2026 revenue recovery

Finnish energy company Neste Oyj is expected to return to growth in 2026 after three consecutive years of declining revenue, with Visible Alpha consensus pointing to a 12% increase to €21.3 billion. The recovery is expected to be led by Renewable Products, Neste’s business focused on renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, as improving demand and margins give the division a larger role in the group.

Analysts expect Renewable Products revenue to rise 30% to €10.5 billion in 2026. In comparison, Oil Products revenue is expected to increase by a modest 1% to €9.4 billion, following a 21% decline in 2025. The shift marks a significant change in Neste’s revenue mix, with renewables now accounting for roughly 49% of the company’s total revenue, overtaking Oil Products as Neste’s largest revenue-generating division

The outlook comes as market conditions for renewable fuels have improved. The company said stronger renewable-diesel demand and regulatory developments, including Germany’s adoption of RED III, were supporting the market.

Marketing & Services revenue is also expected to rebound, with consensus forecasting a 26% increase in revenue to €5.4 billion in 2026 after an 8% decline in 2025. The division, alongside Oil Products, remains an important cash generator as Neste shifts its focus towards renewables.

The improvement in Renewable Products is expected to be particularly pronounced at the profit level. Analysts forecast segment gross profit to surge 144% to €3.6 billion in 2026, while operating income is expected to rise to €2.1 billion from just €151 million in 2025. Neste is also expanding its renewable production footprint, with total annual capacity expected to reach 6.2 million tonnes in 2027 following the Rotterdam refinery expansion.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.