ADNOC Gas revenue seen falling 18% in 2026 as volumes weaken

UAE's integrated gas producer ADNOC Gas PLC (ADX: ADNOCGAS) is facing a sharp downturn in 2026, with regional conflict disrupting operations at its Habshan processing complex and restricting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The company reported security-related incidents at Habshan in April, while continued disruption to maritime traffic through the strait has weighed on product liftings.

Visible Alpha consensus points to a 17.6% year-on-year decline in 2026 revenue to $15.2 billion. The weakness is broad-based, led by a 34.1% drop in export and traded liquid revenue, while domestic gas revenue is expected to fall 22.9%, LNG revenue 30.8%, and other revenue 12.9%.

The revenue decline reflects a significant contraction in expected sales volumes. Total volumes are forecast to fall 29% to 2,873 trillion British thermal units, with export and traded-liquids volumes down 19% to 735 trillion British thermal units, domestic gas volumes down 22.9% to 1,961 trillion British thermal units and LNG volumes down 29.6% to 163 trillion British thermal units.

The pressure is also feeding through to earnings. Analysts expect export and traded-liquids EBITDA to fall 38.3% year-on-year to $2.4 billion in 2026, while domestic gas EBITDA is projected to decline 22.9% to $2.7 billion. Segment net income is expected to drop 30% and 28.2%, respectively.

ADNOC supplies about 60% of the UAE’s natural gas requirements, making its domestic gas business a critical part of the country’s energy system.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.