Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 20 April 2026

The following is an extract from S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest Week Ahead Economic Preview. For the full report, please click on the 'Download Full Report' link.

April flash PMI data to add to Middle East war impact assessments

Flash PMI data for April will provide more insights into the economic impact of the Middle East war in the coming week. The March surveys showed global growth slowing sharply alongside a spike in price pressures, fuelling concerns over stagflation. Key developments to watch in the April data will be the degree to which demand has potentially been further dampened due to the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, surging energy prices and shipping constraints. The survey gauge of worldwide business uncertainty rose to one of the highest seen in the survey history in March, while supply chain delays and price pressures hit their highest since late 2022 and early 2023 respectively due to the war.

Policymakers will be especially eager to assess the PMI data for risks of growth slowing further against the chances of inflationary pressures becoming entrenched, especially in the US and UK, where inflation was already running above target prior to the war.

In the US, consumer confidence and inflation expectations will also be sought from the University of Michigan survey, as well as any energy-price related impact on spending via the official retail sales data for March.

Consumer confidence data likewise provide a valuable accompaniment to the flash PMIs in Europe, especially as the March PMI data pointed to consumer service industries having so far suffered a particularly hard hit from the initial outbreak of the Middle East war.

In the UK, inflation, government debt and labour market data will also be updated from the ONS. The inflation picture looks to have worsened amid the spike in fuel prices during March, while the jobs markets is indicated to have also worsened (the Composite PMI Employment index has averaged just 46.4 so far this year, signalling a steep contraction). A softening of the labour market has been a key concern in the UK, with survey data since late 2024 having pointed to a continual trend of job shedding in response to government policies of higher staffing taxes and increases in the minimum wage, the latter having been raised again in April.

In APAC, trade and inflation data will meanwhile provide clues as to the impact of the war – and notably the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – on imports, exports and prices for economies such as Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, New Zealand, Malaysia, and Taiwan.

Chart of the week: April flash PMI data awaited for more clues on war impact

March’s PMI surveys signalled an unwelcome combination of markedly slower economic growth and accelerating inflation in almost all major economies. April’s data will be eyed for the degree to which these ‘stagflationary’ trends have persisted.