MCX to ride commodity market volatility as volumes turbocharge earnings outlook

Shares in Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE: MCX) have extended a sharp rally, climbing 26% year-to-date and 149% over the past 12 months, as commodity market volatility boosts trading activity. Global commodity markets (especially bullion and energy) have seen higher volatility due to macro and geopolitical factors. The exchange, which commands a large share of India’s commodity futures market, has emerged as a direct beneficiary of elevated prices and heightened volatility, both of which tend to amplify volumes and fee generation.

That operating leverage is increasingly visible in earnings expectations. Visible Alpha consensus estimates show transaction revenue to more than double in the fiscal year ending March 2026, rising 112% year-on-year to INR20.2 billion. Transactions account for about 87% of total income.

Within this, options continue to dominate growth dynamics. Revenue from options is projected to rise by nearly 100% to INR13.3 billion. Futures revenues, while smaller, are expected to expand even faster, up 137% to INR6.9 billion, as participation broadens across bullion, energy and metals contracts.

The surge in revenues is underpinned by a sharp acceleration in traded volumes. Futures turnover is forecast to increase 135% to INR165 trillion, while options turnover is set to jump 152% to INR1,247 trillion. On a daily basis, average futures turnover is expected to reach INR644 billion, more than doubling from INR273 billion a year earlier, with options averaging INR4,680 billion versus INR1,914 billion in 2025.

Recent results suggest this momentum is already materializing. MCX reported transaction revenue growth of more than 120% year-on-year in the December quarter, alongside a 151% rise in net profit, driven by a surge in derivatives trading volumes.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.