Crypto weakness to weigh on Robinhood’s Q1 growth outlook

Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, April 28, with a sharp downturn in cryptocurrency trading expected to temper growth.

Visible Alpha consensus shows analysts expect revenues of $1.12 billion in Q1, up 22% year-on-year. Transaction-based revenues, which account for around 58% of total income, are forecast to rise 13% to $660 million.

Within transactions, options and equities trading remain comparatively strong, although moderating from the previous quarter. The two segments saw strong trading activity in Q4 tied to elevated retail activity and volatility which analysts expect may not fully persist in Q1. Transaction-based revenues from options and equities are projected to grow 17% and 49% respectively in Q1.

By contrast, crypto trading revenues are expected to fall 41% to $149 million, reflecting a cooling in digital asset activity after a subdued start to the year.

Looking at user metrics, monthly active users are projected at 13.6 million in Q1, an improvement from 13 million in the previous quarter, but still below 14.4 million recorded last year. Average revenue per user is estimated at $165, down from $191 in Q4 2025 but ahead of $145 in Q1 2025.

Outside trading, net interest income is expected to remain steady, rising 32% to $382 million.

Robinhood’s inclusion in the S&P 500 in 2025 marked a milestone in its maturation from a retail trading disruptor to a more established market participant. Yet the company’s dependence on trading volumes, particularly in more volatile asset classes such as crypto, continues to expose it to cyclical swings. Shares are currently down 24% year-to-date.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.