Coinbase’s recent rally meets cautious 2026 outlook

Shares in Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) and other cryptocurrency groups rose this week after US President Donald Trump signaled support for the industry’s push to loosen banking restrictions on yield-bearing stablecoins, reinforcing a rally already fueled by a rebound in Bitcoin.

The intervention adds momentum to lobbying around the proposed Clarity Act, legislation in the US Congress aimed at establishing clearer market structure rules for digital assets.

The political tailwind comes as crypto markets recover from earlier volatility. Bitcoin has rebounded sharply in recent months, lifting trading sentiment and helping shares of crypto exchanges and infrastructure providers recover ground after a difficult period for digital assets.

Yet the equity rally masks a more subdued outlook for Coinbase Global’s underlying business in 2026. Visible Alpha consensus estimates suggest fiscal 2026 could prove challenging, with analysts forecasting slower trading activity alongside pressure on revenue growth and profitability.

Transaction revenue, which accounts for close to 60% of Coinbase’s total revenue, is expected to grow just 2.1% year-on-year in 2026 to about $4.1 billion. Within transactions, institutional transaction revenue is projected to rise sharply, increasing 62%. Consumer transaction revenue, historically Coinbase’s most profitable segment, is expected to decline by 6%.

Analysts also anticipate weakness in the company’s subscription and services segment, which includes staking, custodial services, and blockchain rewards. Revenue from the segment is forecast to fall 4% to about $2.7 billion in 2026, following growth of 23% last year. Within the category, Visible Alpha estimates point to declines across staking and blockchain rewards, custodial fees and other subscription services.

Stablecoin revenue is expected to remain a relative bright spot. Analysts forecast the category, which includes income linked to the widely used USD Coin, to rise 4% to about $1.4 billion in 2026, though growth is seen moderating significantly from prior years as the market matures.

User metrics continue to expand, but monetization appears to be weakening. Verified users are projected to increase to about 158 million in 2026 from 141 million a year earlier, while monthly transacting users are expected to rise to 9.6 million from 9.2 million. Average monthly revenue per user, however, is forecast to decline to about $59.2 from $62.3 in 2025.

Beyond 2026, however, Visible Alpha consensus estimates point to a sharper recovery, suggesting that a rebound in trading activity and broader adoption of digital assets could restore growth momentum in subsequent years.

This article was published by Visible Alpha, part of S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.