Geopolitical Risk Brief: January 2026

Our country risk experts provide insight into key geopolitical events that could impact the economic environment in January. 

The US removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, alongside US President Donald Trump’s public comments and military postures, demonstrate the Trump administration’s commitment to US security preeminence within the Western Hemisphere, and that increases political and security risks of some foreign key actors.  

Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio are seeking to work with the Venezuelan administration — now led by Delcy Rodríguez — toward changes in oil and foreign policy. They have ruled out an immediate political transition for Venezuela.

If the US perceives that Venezuela is unwilling to comply with these requests, renewed US military action in Venezuela is highly likely. Even if Rodríguez opts to work fully with the US, the risk of fractures within the Venezuelan military, senior leadership and paramilitary structures will remain high.   

Increased US regional influence may prompt some Latin American governments to reassess their reliance on mainland China in strategic sectors, but broader economic engagement is likely to persist, particularly in the Southern Cone, where dependence on Chinese investment and trade is likely to continue in the two- to three-year outlook.  

Colombia and Brazil, both of which share their borders with Venezuela, are unlikely to change US-related policy preferences toward concluding tariff-reducing trade negotiations and security cooperation. These two countries are increasing military deployments in border areas with Venezuela, on account of potential spillovers and containment of a refuge surge, but direct involvement in Venezuela is unlikely.   

President Trump’s comments, support for protesters, growing public support for exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi inside Iran, and the government’s extensive use of lethal protest suppression tactics are likely to encourage continued or repeated nationwide protests seeking a change in the political system over the next 12 months.  

Although President Trump has renewed calls for US acquisition of Greenland and the US said it is considering military options, the US would likely prioritize negotiations with Denmark and Greenland. US preference for negotiation stems from anticipated adverse reactions by NATO allies and the potential breakup of NATO.