Webinar Recap: Tariffs on Trade - How it’s impacting economies and sectors

Overview: On October 2, 2025, S&P Global Market Intelligence hosted a webinar featuring Louis Kujis, Chris Rogers, Michelle Cheong and Shruthi Nagarajan, discussing the effects of tariffs amidst policy fluctuations such as U.S. Section 232/301 and APEC talks. The session highlighted challenges for credit risk managers, including fluctuating demand, pricing pressures, and potential supply chain disruptions.

Key Insights:

• Demand and Export Volatility: Sectors in China and broader Asia face margin compression due to overcapacity and limited supply elasticity.
• Export Trends: A decline in exports as domestic demand varies by country, with reshoring and automation investments anticipated to rise in 2026.
• Supply Chain Risks: Concentration risks in U.S./China trade corridors and potential disruptions remain significant.
• Inflationary Effects: Tariff impacts on prices may manifest over the next year, with uneven pass-through across sectors.
• Financing Conditions: Weaker confidence and costlier lending conditions impact refinancing windows and spreads.

Strategic Approach: Utilizing generative AI, S&P Global developed a framework to refine information searches, applying interconnected risk transmissions from S&P Global Ratings. This aids in understanding geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.

Generative AI Applications:

• CreditCompanionTM and ChatIQ: These tools help summarize research and aggregate insights from company transcripts, identifying industry-level developments and potential spillovers.
• Industry Risk Scores: Applied to narrow focus on high-risk industries for closer monitoring, particularly in volatile environments.

Ongoing Surveillance: The Supply Chain Console supports real-time monitoring, offering updates on trade negotiations and potential disruptions, including cybersecurity risks.

Conclusion: AI, combined with rich data and research, enhances macro risk surveillance. Despite its potential, generative AI is underutilized in macro applications. A structured approach, leveraging multi-disciplinary expertise, curated content, and strategic prompt design, is essential for maximizing AI's value in macroeconomic analysis.

For further details, refer to the Global Credit Conditions Q4 Webinar Presentation available on RatingsDirect® on Capital IQ Pro.

Webinar replay

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Credit Companion™(Beta)

Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS)