S&P Global Market Intelligence report forecasts favorable trade policy environment for 2026

Analysis comes as new research estimates tariff cost impact to be $907 billion

NEW YORK (November 5, 2025) – S&P Global Market Intelligence has released a comprehensive report on Supply Chain, titled 2026 Big Picture: Supply Chain Outlook, which finds that the trade policy environment in 2026 is expected to become more favorable for global supply chains, despite persistent US tariff uncertainties.

Supply chain challenges have impacted corporate profits, with an estimated $907 billion in profits removed from analyst forecasts since early 2025 due to tariffs, cost inflation and other challenges. While consensus revenue estimates have risen by $600 billion, earnings expectations have dropped by $300 billion, reflecting increased operational costs which are squeezing margins despite revenue growth.

Negative sentiment among companies deepened during 2025 second-quarter earnings calls, although mentions of tariffs declined, indicating a perception of tariffs as a “new normal.” Approaching the end of 2025, corporations are now adopting a more tactical approach to decision-making due to tariff-related policy uncertainties, leading to a pause in strategic investments.

“Juggling the complexities of tariffs, evolving trade agreements, and shifting market dynamics requires a proactive approach, and making strategic investments in supply chains is crucial for resilience and sustainable growth,” said Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Looking ahead to 2026, we envisage that lightweight trade deals offering tariff concessions, in exchange for purchase and investment commitments, will help mitigate uncertainties, with comprehensive agreements across Europe, Asia and Latin America fostering new opportunities.”

Key findings include:

• 2026 is expected to be crucial for trade deal implementation, with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement providing planning certainty for manufacturers, while the EU aims to establish new trade agreements with Indonesia, Mercosur nations and India, potentially boosting international trade growth to an average of 2.6% annually over the next five years.
• As companies adapt to tariffs and trade policy uncertainties, there will be a renewed focus on long-term supply chain investments, with North America becoming less integrated into global supply networks while Asia sees tighter integration.
• The reliance on low-cost labor for manufacturing is decreasing as labor costs rise in various sectors, prompting global manufacturers to invest in mechanization and workforce upskilling, with projected global spending on manufacturing equipment reaching $10.2 trillion between 2025 and 2035.
• The US data center sector is facing tariff challenges that increase costs, while capital expenditure by the six largest US hyperscalers is projected to rise significantly by 63.2% year-over-year in 2025, nearing $400 billion. Potential tariff exemptions may arise from ongoing reviews in the electronics sector, benefiting companies investing in the US.

To request a copy of the 2026 Big Picture: Supply Chain Outlook, or to access the full suite of 2026 Big Picture reports, please contact press.mi@spglobal.com or visit here.  

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