BLOG — Aug 12, 2025
Critical Minerals at a Crossroads: 5 Urgent Insights You Can’t Afford to Miss
By Alice Yu
“What happens when your entire production line halts because of a missing mineral?”
This isn’t a hypothetical—it’s a growing reality for supply chain leaders navigating the volatile landscape of critical minerals. From electric vehicles to defense systems, the global economy hinges on a handful of minerals increasingly caught in the crossfire of geopolitics, tariffs, and resource nationalism.
In the recent webinar, “Critical Minerals at a Crossroads: Navigating Regulatory and Financial Challenges for Supply Chain Diversification”, experts from S&P Global unpacked the regulatory shifts, trade dynamics, and investment challenges reshaping the future of critical minerals. If you’re in global marketing, procurement, or strategic planning, this is a must-watch.
👉 Watch the full webinar replay or book a demo to explore how our solutions can help you navigate these complexities.
1. Tariffs Are Reshaping the Economics of Mineral Sourcing
The U.S. government’s use of Section 232 tariffs—originally focused on steel and aluminum—is now expanding to include critical minerals, with recent investigations focusing on copper and other essential materials. These tariffs are designed to bolster domestic production but come with trade-offs.
“Critical minerals may not be the largest product targeted by 232s, but they are essential. A missing mineral can shut down an entire supply chain.” — Eric Oak
The August 1 tariff revisions and ongoing trade negotiations cover three-quarters of U.S. imports, signaling a seismic shift in how supply chains will be structured going forward.
2. China’s Export Controls Are Strategic—and Disruptive
China has weaponized its dominance in critical minerals through export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, and seven heavy rare earth elements. These controls are not just economic—they’re geopolitical.
“China controls over 60% of global mine supply for most minerals it restricts. These are used in high-tech defense and civilian industries.” — Alice Yu
This has led to supply chain rerouting, with U.S. imports of antimony surging from countries like Thailand and Mexico, despite Chinese-origin materials still trickling in through indirect channels.
3. Domestic Production Faces Long Lead Times and Resource Constraints
While the U.S. is ramping up support for domestic mining—through policies like FAST-41 expansion, Defense Production Act funding, and offshore exploration initiatives—the reality is sobering. The U.S. has the fourth longest mine development lead time globally, averaging over 19 years from discovery to production
“Even with policy support, the U.S. starts from a weaker position. Mines known today will only be in production by 2035 or later.” — Mark Ferguson
Moreover, reserves of key minerals like nickel and cobalt are limited, making recycling and refining critical components of any onshoring strategy.
4. EV Demand Slump Threatens Battery Metals Investment
The U.S. federal budget has slashed support for EVs and battery production, ending tax credits earlier than expected. This has led to a 26% downgrade in projected EV sales by 2035, which in turn threatens demand for lithium, cobalt, and graphite
“Defense priorities are replacing energy transition goals. Without scale, EV costs rise—and metals demand falls.” — Alice Yu
Without strong demand signals, investors are hesitant, and projects are being delayed or shelved. The risk is a mismatch between policy ambition and market reality.
5. Resource Nationalism Is Reshaping Global Supply Chains
Countries rich in critical minerals are asserting control through export bans, state ownership mandates, and shipping restrictions. Examples include:
- DRC banning cobalt ore exports to promote domestic refining.
- Indonesia restricting raw nickel exports, boosting refined output.
- Chile mandating government ownership in lithium projects.
- Guinea requiring bauxite exports on national-flagged vessels.
“Countries are climbing the development ladder—moving from raw exports to refined products. Expect more to follow.” — Eric Oak
These moves complicate sourcing strategies and demand deep supply chain mapping and risk mitigation.
Watch the full webinar to dive deeper into the data and expert insights.
Conclusion: How S&P Global Market Intelligence Helps You Navigate the Crossroads
In this volatile landscape, S&P Global Market Intelligence offers a strategic edge to stay ahead with our solutions.
Whether you're a strategist, investor, or operator in the critical minerals sector, S&P Capital IQ Pro helps you make informed decisions from mine to market:
- Mining exploration and production data across global critical minerals assets.
- Understand minerals supply outlook with development timelines, project pipelines and supply estimates
- Monitor price forecasts and market fundamentals for battery metals and rare earths.
- Gain vital insights with in-depth critical minerals research and news
📅 Book a demo to see how S&P Capital IQ Pro can navigate critical mineral uncertainty with actionable intelligence.
Whether you're navigating tariffs, diversifying suppliers, or planning long-term investments, our Supply Chain Intelligence help you:
- Map your supply chain down to Tier 3 suppliers.
- Monitor geopolitical risks and export controls.
- Model tariff impacts and price premiums.
- Identify alternative sourcing options and refine investment strategies.
📅 Book a demo to see how our Supply Chain Intelligence can strengthen your supply chain resilience.
This content may be created with the assistance of an artificial intelligence (AI) tool. While the AI tool may provide suggestions and insights, the final content was composed, reviewed, edited, and approved by a human at S&P Global. As such, S&P Global claims full copyright ownership of this AI-assisted content, in accordance with applicable laws and regulations.
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