MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 5 - Will Super Bowl 60 Set New Viewership Records or Fall Short?

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, the senior reporter covering the media industry for S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media and telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global. Our news and research staff explore issues in the ever‑evolving media landscape. Today "MediaTalk" is talking football in general and Super Bowl 60 in particular. I'm joined by trio of S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan analysts: Justin Nielson, head of Kagan research, who covers many things, notably broadcast. Justin, how you doing?  

Justin Nielson: Doing well. Thanks for having me back, Mike.  

Reynolds: Alright, we've got principal analyst Scott Robson, who tracks developments with major US programs and cable networks, as well as sports. He's in our virtual locker room from Austin, Texas. Scott, psyched for this game? 

Scott Robson: Yes. Thanks for having me, Mike. I think now that we've thawed out a little bit here, it's time for the Super Bowl.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Alright. Mike/MJ, he writes about US sports market and it's increasing transition to streaming is also with us. Mike, there's a lot of snow upstate New York. 

Mike Johnson: Hey Mike. Thanks for having me. Yeah we're buried in snow up here in western New York. It's classic winter weather. I think we had negative 10-degree wind chills this morning. I'm looking forward to spring for sure.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Sunday, Feb. 8, we have the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots live from Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, California. NBC Sports has the coverage, meaning NBC, Telemundo and aggregate streamer Peacock. It's actually a rematch of Super Bowl 49 back in 2014, a game that lives on famously or infamously, depending on where you sit, because Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson did not ignore his coach, Pete Powell's directive. And instead of handing the ball to Beast Mode, Marshawn Lynch at the 1-yard line, instead he threw a slam pattern that was intercepted by Malcolm Butler in the end zone and the Patriots secured victory. Sorry to have to recap that. 

Anyway. Before we get to the Super Bowl, let's talk about the College Football Playoff. Nobody had Indiana. Losing this program in College Football history, turnaround under Coach Curt Cignetti in '24/'25, made the CFP and then capped this season with the first football championship in unbeaten fashion. What did you guys make of the Hoosiers and quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who's the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NFL draft going to the Vegas Raiders? Mike, what do you think?  

Mike Johnson: Yeah. What a story, right? Like the Hoosiers kind of rewrote the college football script a bit here this last year going undefeated, like you mentioned, getting their first national championship… That's definitely legendary stuff. Mendoza, like you mentioned the No. 1 pick, Heisman winner. He's got those interviews that gets the fans and teammates fired up. It's just crazy to think about how far they've come and I wouldn't be surprised to see other college programs follow their blueprint a bit as far as roster construction in this new era. 

Mike Reynolds: Justin, were you saying Hoo-Hoo-Hoo that night?  

Justin Nielson: No, not really. But it was interesting in terms of the two quarterbacks with Mendoza and Carson Beck. Carson Beck said after the game. It was like, "When was the last time you actually attended class?" It was two years ago. But it is interesting. 

And there is definitely things at play in the Super Bowl with the Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak being courted by the Raiders. We'll see what happens in the game.  

Mike Reynolds: Scott, were you in the Hoosier mania class?  

Scott Robson: Not exactly, I can respect their amazing run. I think Mendoza is a great player with a real promising future. Just hopefully he doesn't take too much of a beating in his first few years in the NFL. Looks like he'll be stepping into a pretty challenging situation if he goes to Vegas.  

Mike Reynolds: I gotcha. Alright. We'll stick with the CFP for a little bit. It's sticking with 12 teams for next year instead of 14, 16, or 24 someday down the road, like Big 10 wants in 2029. Justin, your take on this?  

Justin Nielson: Yeah, I definitely feel like we're at a point now where we've got all of the top teams represented in each one of the conferences. I'm not really for expansion to be honest.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Scott, how about you? I.  

Scott Robson: Yes. I think 16 could be a good number. Clearly the media companies want more of these playoff games that draw large audiences. I think they need to tighten up the schedule a bit. There was a 10-day gap between the semi-final and the championship game this year. And yeah, I think that kind of zaps the momentum. I'd like to see the schedule tightened up a little bit.  

Mike Reynolds: Mike, where do you fall in on this?  

Mike Johnson: Yeah, I think the 12-team playoff, it's been an upgrade from the old system in my opinion. The Big Ten, SEC had those big, wild ideas for expansion. Honestly, I like that they're taking their time a bit to figure this out and get it right. Like Scott mentioned, the schedule needs to be adjusted, in my opinion. Especially if expansion takes place. It felt like the CFP was dragging out a little bit and kind of got buried by those high profile NFL playoff games. 

Mike Reynolds: Sure. Absolutely. And next year it's going to be on January 25th, so it's getting real late on this football calendar. Anyway, let's go back to the pros. Very strong year of viewership for the NFL averaged 18.7 million viewers per game. That's up 10% from last season, and that's the best mark since 1989. 

A lot of tight games. But Scott, can you talk about Nielsen made a change in its methodology that probably helped the viewership along the way.  

Scott Robson: Yeah. The NFL put some pressure on Nielsen to capture a more complete audience picture. Nielsen's answer was the big data plus panel approach which seems to have worked well for the NFL, showing an uptick in viewership this season. 

So Nielsen's approach they combine set top box data, smart TV device data with their traditional panel data. So they're tracking around 45 million households, 75 million devices. And then they're marrying that with their panel of around, I think 42,000 households.  

Yeah. Yeah. So the rise in viewership it's hard to pin down as there isn't a clear apples to apples comparison to last season as the methodology has changed, but it looks like viewership was still up around 4% or so. 

If you try and make that comparison.  

Mike Reynolds: Alright Mike, there's also a better out-of-home viewing as well measurement for Nielsen.  

Mike Johnson: Yeah. The numbers this season have just been wild. Almost 19 million viewers per game is just really huge. And you're right, the out-of-home viewing is definitely playing a big role. 

Especially with Nielsen, they're a hundred percent out-of-home coverage now. With the Super Bowl this Sunday folks are going to be tuning in from all kinds of different spots, not just at home. So those viewership stats will definitely get a huge boost, I think, from everyone gathering at different places to watch the big game. 

Mike Reynolds: Yeah, makes totally makes sense. Especially for Super Bowl Sunday. Alright. Big year for streaming. Mike prime video really kicked it up this season.  

Mike Johnson: Yeah, for sure. It's been a massive year for streaming in the NFL, especially for Prime. If you look at the numbers Prime's Thursday night. 

Football averaged, I think just over 15 million viewers across its 15 game Slate this season which includes the local over the air broadcast, and that's a 16% jump year over year. And it's actually the best showing since Thursday night football moves to streaming. Christmas night was obviously huge, the Broncos chiefs game. 

Pulled in over 21 million viewers, setting [00:07:00] a new, prime record and smashing their previous high from earlier in the season. Since Prime became, the exclusive home for Thursday night football in 2022 the audience has grown by 60%, which has been massive. Now we're seeing, eight games this season, right? That had at least 15 million viewers. People have really adjusted to the streaming over to Prime Video.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. But linear, Justin still the place to be.  

Justin Nielson: It really is, and especially on NBC with their Sunday night football matchups, which have been really good this year. 

And with the new NBA rights deal Sunday night basketball is coming and then baseball. And then baseball. So I, they're very sports heavy in terms of the Sunday night programming. And then you look at the divisional and championship games, they did very well across both NBC Telemundo and Peacock. 

Mike Reynolds: I gotcha. I gotcha. And I guess, CBS said it had its best year ever. And I think the idea, and maybe it got to, all the a FC quarterbacks, whether their name Lamar Jackson, mm-hmm. patrick Mahomes Josh Allen, or [00:08:00] Mr. Burrow it seems that they seem to have surpassed Fox in that late Sunday afternoon window. Those 4 25 starts, I think it's like the third year in a row. CBS has won that matchup, and I think that's the top franchise in all of TV these days.  

Justin Nielson: It really is, and NFL and CBS has really performed very well, especially in the matchups that they've received and just the star quality. 

You look at the average audience for the A FC championship game average, about 48.6 million viewers on CBS. That, was about 10% higher than the previous year on Fox. Yes, they've done very well.  

Mike Reynolds: Scott, what about ESPN and Monday Night Football? 

And they've got a lead in of sorts for its first ever Super Bowl next season.  

Scott Robson: Yes. ESPN they had their second best season for Monday night football. The 2023 season was actually slightly higher rated. I think this was an interesting season for the NFL with key injuries happening and some of the. 

Matchups that look to be high profile in the beginning of the season. When those [00:09:00] games came around, they didn't really mean as much. But yeah, so ESPN is gearing up for the Super Bowl next year. A BC hasn't had the game since 2006. And so they'll be starting the hype train there. 

On Super Bowl Sunday this year with an event called The Handoff. So they're going to have shows broadcast from the site of Super Bowl in 2027, which is SoFi Stadium in Southern California.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay.  

Scott Robson: So really, going all in on that.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. One bit of a complication though, fellas is the Super Bowl date next year. 

It's something called February 14th Justin is that going to prove meddlesome to navigate at your home?  

Justin Nielson: Oh, absolutely. With wife and two daughters for sure. That, that is very unfortunate being on Valentine's Day with the Super Bowl with my daughters couldn't, not caring less about, about the football game, maybe the halftime show, but may, maybe they should go all Barbie, Harry Miller and just meld them together. 

Yeah.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Mike, how about you? Are you going to have to vote honey? I have to watch a Super Bowl for work.  

Mike Johnson: Yeah. Yeah, it [00:10:00] looks like we'll be having to, celebrate with a nicer dinner on the 13th next year. I feel bad this year. It's on a Saturday. We'll be spending the day at an all day youth basketball tournament that I'm helping coach, and then next year with the Super Bowl. 

Okay. I'm just hoping there's a good halftime show like Justin mentioned.  

Mike Reynolds: Alright. Scott, what do you think about February 14th in the Super Bowl? And I guess in a another thing, we're going to maybe have some changes with contracts next year with the league.  

Scott Robson: Yeah, so the Super Bowl falling on Valentine's Day, I think it's definitely going to test the game's appeal potentially dampen viewership. 

But in terms of the current NFL media rights deal that runs through 2033 it's up for renegotiation. I think given the rising value of live sports rights it's inevitable that this is going to get renegotiated. I think the NFL is looking at. Some recent deals that have been forged, especially, the NBA deal, which tipped off this year. 

And they're going to use those to justify getting more money from the media companies. I think the NFL has some strong [00:11:00] negotiating leverage here because of the popularity, the rising ratings that we just described. And I think it really bolsters their case.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Alright. Justin, , there's been talk about 18 games for a long time from Commissioner Goodell Robert Craft, I guess maybe going to the Hall of Fame in the next week or so. 

He heads a TV committee. He's really pushing for 18 games. Slate. I'm assuming this is going to happen Justin, but soon or a few years down the road.  

Justin Nielson: Yeah they're going to have to get some concessions from the N-F-L-P-A either shorten the preseason games or mandatory training sessions. However, there was a pushback from 16 to 17 games that expanded back in 2021, so I mean it, and now it's normal, regular season 17 games. 

So I, I think you pace out the bye weeks and everything and it definitely makes sense.  

Mike Reynolds: Sure. Mike, there's lots of talk about, the 18th game may become an international kind of schedule. Craft is pushing for something where every team would play a game away. But I think we had seven or eight games this year. 

Is that bridge too [00:12:00] far at this juncture?  

Mike Johnson: Yeah, so I think this year there were seven international games. That's up from five the season prior. So the league is definitely ramping things up as far as the international games go. I think for next year they've already announced that there's going to be eight international games spread across, five cities and four different countries so far. 

I think they announced Munich Melbourne. Rio de Janero and London of course. And like you mentioned before, Robert Kraft recently made news about the league. Potentially replacing one preseason game with a regular season one which could mean, eventually down the line that every team will play at least one international game each year. 

Yeah, we can expect the international slate to only get bigger going forward, I  

Mike Reynolds: think. Alright guys, let's get back to the business of Super Bowl 60. Mike, you have a Super Bowl preview up on Cap IQ Pro. Mike, take us through the game and Madison Avenue, if you will.  

Mike Johnson: Thanks Mike. Super Bowl 60, it's shaping up to be a massive event. , You got the Seahawks trying to grab their second [00:13:00] Lombardi trophy, and then the Patriots, looking to add to their legendary legacy a bit. 

It's airing nationally on NBC like we've been discussing. It's part of their legendary February run. And it's pretty much guaranteed to be the most watched TV event of the year. Ad prices are through the roof. I believe one 30-second spot went for, I think it was 10 million according to reports, with the average shaping up around 8 million this year. 

Which is almost double what it costs when these two teams last met in 2015. So yeah, you can watch the game in Spanish on Telemundo Universo streaming in 4K on Peacock. Back to the ad costs, they've jumped more than 45% in the last five years, which has been huge. But you're still seeing these brands still see the Super Bowl as a must for prestige awareness. 

Especially since live sports are king for advertisers you're seeing ticket prices, it's in that 6,000 to $8,000 range, I think close to what it was last year. And then there's also reports that betting [00:14:00] records are going to be set to with just less than 2 billion expected to be wagered, legally this year across the country. 

Mike Reynolds: I gotcha. Scott, Mike just talked about the rise in Super Bowl prices over the last few years, the audience is 120, 125 million. Is there a way that, I guess prices go down. CPN prices go down, is a Super Bowl add up a bargain?  

Scott Robson: Yes and no. I would say in terms of just a straight CPM calculation some of these spots are going for around $60 CPM which is slightly higher than the primetime brought. 

Cast network CPMs of around 45 to $50. But I think the Super Bowl ads are a bargain since people actually pay attention. Ratings aside, I think people are tuning out ads to a great degree these days and are distracted by their phones. But on Super Bowl Sunday, I think attention to ads is at a premium, which isn't really quantifiable, but I think it makes the spots more valuable. 

I  

Mike Reynolds: gotcha. Justin. They also the word legendary has come up at least [00:15:00] in 30 Rock and other NBCU outlets. Mm-hmm. And occasionally here. So NBC sports not only has Super Bowl 60, it has the Olympics and it has the NBA Allstar game from the Intuit dome the following weekend. All of that together made ad sales better. 

Justin Nielson: Yes, absolutely. And they're going to have the share of eyeballs throughout the month of February. In addition, they've got some new NBC shows in the primetime hours after the Winter Olympics, closing ceremonies on Sunday, February 22nd, the fall and rise of Reggie Dinkins stirring Tracy Morgan. 

He's returned to NBC from 30 Rock and the Voice Battle of Champions. So they're going to have a. Very good slate of content throughout the month of February when the big push with sports and entertainment programming.  

Mike Reynolds: Scott, you mentioned it before many people do like to check out the ads on the Super Bowl Sunday and beyond. Anything that you've read about, anything you may have already seen that has caught your eye in that sense.  

Scott Robson: Yeah. So in terms of some high profile ads that we should expect for this Super Bowl, I know my daughter [00:16:00] will be excited about Sabrina Carpenter's Pringles ad. 

I think a lot of people were turned off by Uber Eats commercials with Matthew McConaughey yelling food at Bradley Cooper. Eric gets having the playoff game so hopefully they edit that approach a little bit.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Okay. Fair enough. Mike, how about you? Something that you're looking forward to seeing or you've already seen. 

Mike Johnson: Yeah. Yeah. So I'm sure we're going to see a ton of Olympics content with various athletes. And we've already seen a few teasers that I'm going to be looking out for, like with bud Light with Post Malone and Shane Gillis. And I think Peyton Manning's going to be involved in that too. You have also State Farms halfway their insurance with Danny McBride and Key and Michael Key. 

And then Instacart's gaining a lot of buzz too with their ad it's going to have Ben Stiller and Benson Boone in it, where, I think Stiller tries to back flip and it just goes crazy. Those are just a few that I'll be looking out for, but, tuning in and out like Scott mentioned. 

Mike Reynolds: Okay, Justin. I don't think we've mentioned AI yet today, which is an upset in and of itself, but, there's going to be, there's going to be some [00:17:00] ai ads as well, right?  

Justin Nielson: Yeah, a absolutely there. There'll be AI and ads and hopefully not too much AI because it is still to the point now where you can see where AI is being integrated in certain a advertisements. 

But I'm more worried about the robots taking over, I guess you would say. Okay. But no, in, in terms of an ad category, you definitely will have AI at the forefront with Google Oakley Meta, Salesforce as Mike had mentioned, Instacart, Uber Eats open, AI already confirmed as advertisers. 

So there will be a lot of push around ai.  

Mike Reynolds: I gotcha. Alright. Postseason has been mostly strong viewership. I hate to say that we're all such snobs, that 48 million for the Denver Patriots game and Seattle, and the Rams getting 46 million, eh, could have been stronger. 

Some people are suggesting that maybe the matchup of the Pats and the rematch against Seattle maybe not the best. Justin, you think it's a good game?  

Justin Nielson: Yeah, I think it'll be a good game. I think the rematch aspect of it is interesting. The political [00:18:00] story around the Bad Bunny halftime show will also be interesting in terms of the casual fan the redemption story of Sam Donald in Seattle. 

Sorry, Mike, you moving from Minnesota and newcomer Drake May in, in New England. There. They're attractive quarterbacks, let's put it that way. Let's hope it's a close game and not a blow up by halftime yeah.  

Mike Reynolds: Let's look guys at last year, 127.7 million viewers. 

Record, super Bowl audience Fox, Deportes, as well as Telemundo. Tubi was in the mix. Other NFL and. Fox Digital assets this year, as we talked about, it's NBC, it's peacock, it's Telemundo it's NFL and NBC digital assets. Are we getting there? Are we getting to 127 0.7 million against Scott. 

What's the audience going to look like?  

Scott Robson: I think this one will actually dip compared to last year, but not by much given the big data plus panel bump. Okay. The storylines just aren't as interesting as they have been in the past. I think there's a lot of casual viewers that don't [00:19:00] know who Sam Darn or Drake may really are, and I think that's going to drag on viewership a little bit. 

Mike Reynolds: Mike, what do you think?  

Mike Johnson: Yeah, I think I'm going to go with the, over on this one, over 127 million. Okay. I just think with the, the Olympics wrapped around this whole event too it'll attract additional eyeballs. Yeah. I'm going to go with the over. Okay.  

Mike Reynolds: Alright, we're getting to the end here guys. 

The best part of our Super Bowl podcast. If you were a Nielsen household, where would they count you as watching NBC Peacock or in an out-of-home venue? Scott, last year, I think you watched the game at your brother's place. Is that the same game plan?  

Scott Robson: Yeah, same game plan. He likes to cook a nice spread. 

Yeah, we'll be tuning in and likely on NBC.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Justin, I think last year you got your daughters to watch because Taylor Swift was around. Watching the Chiefs play, are they going to be watching the game with you this time?  

Justin Nielson: Not the game, but probably interested in the Bad Bunny halftime show. 

They are fans, so yeah.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Okay. And Mike, how about you? You got a young family they like football, you're watching at your house larger [00:20:00] family or outta friends.  

Mike Johnson: Yeah. Yeah. We'll be hunkering down at home with these frigid temperatures and, school early the next morning. I'm sure the kids will be teasing to stay up a little late, but I don't know. 

We might have some family over too. Last minute.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Okay. Alright. Justin, you mentioned Bad Bunny a couple of times, green Day it's an opening act. You guys watching this, there's been a lot of controversy. Turning Point USA may or may not be doing something, justin. Good thoughts here?  

Justin Nielson: Yeah. 

We're either watching the halftime show or the Puppy Bowl. Let's  

Mike Reynolds: put it that  

Justin Nielson: way. Okay. 

Mike Reynolds: How about you, Mike?  

Mike Johnson: Yeah, we'll be tuning into the Bad Bunny show. My wife's a big fan. I'm sure we'll be dancing around with the kids, stuff like that.  

Mike Reynolds: And Scott,  

Scott Robson: yeah, I'll probably have the bad bunny show on, but hopefully we'll be talking all about the first half action on how great it was. 

Mike Reynolds:  Me, I'm probably going Bad Bunny. Best ever halftime show was the "In Living Color" thing back in 92. That was tremendous. Two years later, Fox had the NFL, so they couldn't do that anymore. And In living color drew like 29 million people, and I guess it got the NFL to get its act together. 

In 1993, the halftime performer was a gentleman known as Michael Jackson. Anyway. Let's get to this here. All of you guys picked the Ravens to win. I picked the Eagles. We didn't do so well, but. "MediaTalk," it's onward and upward. Scott, who's going to win the game and why? 

Scott Robson: Yeah. So I think that there's some special mojo going on in Boston. There has been for a decade or so with, wins across many of their professional franchises. So I don't think you can bet against the Patriots here in the Super Bowl.  

Mike Reynolds: Okay. You guys all know I'm a giant fan, so I can't go there. 

In fact, if there's 30 teams in the NFL Patriots are number 30 and Seahawks are number 26. Not exactly compelling matchup, but I'm going, I've watched every game and going to watch this one. Hopeful that Seattle wins and covers the four and a half point spreads and at least stalls the reemergence of new Patriots Dynasty for at least one more season. 

Justin, what do you think?  

Justin Nielson: Yeah, I'm going NFC West with Seattle. I think they just have a better defense and offense. So overall I'm going with them.  

Mike Reynolds: And Mike, last word to you.  

Mike Johnson: Yeah, mostly I'm hoping a lot of my prop bets hit. And I guess I'll be rooting for the Seahawks, hopefully, we get a crazy ending like the Malcolm Butler play. 

Hey, yeah, previous matchup, but hopefully this time in Seattle's favor. We'll see.  

Mike Reynolds: That concludes this episode of "MediaTalk." I just want to thank our Kagan analyst, Mike Scott and Justin for sharing their thoughts on the CFP, the NFL playoffs and Super Bowl 60. We appreciate it guys. 

Justin Nielson: Thank you, Mike. Thanks, Mike.  

Mike Reynolds: This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. Enjoy the Super Bowl wherever you're going to watch. Go Seahawks. We'll catch up soon on the next episode of "MediaTalk."