MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 35 - How the NFL is Redefining Sports Media Economics & Team Valuations

View Full Transcript

Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media and telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence, wherein the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-changing media landscape. Today, I'm joined by a trio of S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan analysts: Head of Research Justin Nielsen, who specializes in broadcast, among many other things; Principal Analyst Scott Robson, who tracks US TV networks and sports; and Research Analyst Michael Johnson, who is on the US Sports Watch. We're going to talk about the '26-'27 NFL season from streaming, linear, and overall viewership perspectives, new Nielsen methodology that could augment the audience further, ESPN's first-ever Super Bowl telecast, and the rise of international NFL football.

We're also going to talk about NFL team valuations, as we're going to be joined by my TMT colleague, Iuri Struta. Guys, we've traded loyalty since last season — let's kick things off with a quick assessment of our favorite teams. Scott, second season for Aaron Glenn heading the Jets. Geno Smith is the QB to start. Seems to be some promise around Clemson QB Cade Klubnik. Improvement? Same old Jets? Does Glenn make it to a third season?

Scott Robson: I'd love to be optimistic going into the season about the Jets' chances here, but they are currently ranked 27th in the power rankings and— Okay —have less than a 1% chance to win the Super Bowl... so things aren't looking great. The QB position is an issue. I think Glenn is a good head coach and can coach the team a few more seasons before being on the chopping block. Overall, though, I think it—it's going to be a success if the Jets just get seven wins.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. Sticking in the New York metro area, I'm a Giants guy. Former Ravens coach John Harbaugh is now at the helm. The Giants last year lost a lot of close games leading in the fourth quarter. That's also been a thing for Harbaugh and the Ravens over recent years. Let's see if that can be corrected, and if Jaxson Dart can remain upright and keep his head out of the medical tent.

Justin, Arizona Cardinals — new look, new QB?

Justin Nielson: Yeah, so they've drafted a quarterback in Carson Beck. They've got two journeymen, Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew. We'll see who comes out at QB one. I think it will be a rotating locker room in terms of QBs. They're still trying to figure out what the team is. I think they're still a few years away. I actually probably will be watching more Giants games because of Skattebo. I want to see him get the rushing title this year.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. Mike, your Vikings had Sam Darnold, who went on to Seattle and led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl win over the Patriots. Now you have Justin's old QB from the Cardinals in Kyler Murray. What's going to happen for the Vikes?

Michael Johnson: Yeah. Hey, Mike. Yeah, it was kind of tough to see Darnold have all that success last year with the talented team around him. Part of me expected it, though, being a Vikes fan seeing him leave and win a Super Bowl elsewhere immediately. But we'll see on Kyler. He's very talented. Love the contract with Arizona, paying most of it this year. Okay... and hopefully he doesn't have to play superhero at QB for the Vikings to win, but I'm always skeptical, and I think we're in big trouble if he goes down with an injury like last year or something like that.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. Iuri, you're based in London. The NFL has held many games there over the years. They've got three this year on three consecutive weeks. Indianapolis Colts, Washington Commanders on October 4th; the Philadelphia Eagles against the Jacksonville Jaguars on October 11th. Those two games are at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. On October 18th, it's the Jaguars against the Houston Texans from Wembley. Iuri, do you follow the NFL? Do you have a favorite team?

Iuri Struta: Yeah, I do follow the NFL — thanks, Mike. And obviously not as much as I'd like to, because it's not easy with the time difference. I'd say my favorite team is probably the Kansas City Chiefs. I can't say I'm a diehard fan, but I do love the NFL game overall and the experience of an NFL game, especially the Super Bowl.

Reynolds: Let's say international — nine games are on tap this season. League owners have voted to expand to 10 next year. The season opener moves to Wednesday night, with the Super Bowl rematch between the Pats and the Seahawks on September 9th on NBC and Peacock. Then, going international, game two: the Rams — many Super Bowls' favorite — versus the rival 49ers on Thursday, September 10th. That game is the league's first from Australia. It's going to be on Netflix, which has five contests this year. Excitement in your house for this one, Scott? Is this going to deliver a big streaming audience, or would it be better off remaining as part of Fox's NFC package?

Robson: Yes. So the NFL is really playing around with the schedule with the opening-night game on Wednesday. I'll be watching that. As for the Netflix game from Australia on Thursday night, I think it will deliver a solid audience. I guess that means the game is going to start around 11:00 a.m. in Melbourne, which should make for some early tailgating down under. Yeah, I don't think we're at the point yet where streaming audiences will be larger than broadcast, but I think we are going to see that gap shrink this year. I do think that Netflix has a larger viewership than Peacock and other streamers had in prior years, so this should be a good game to gauge whether or not streaming audiences are really coming after broadcast.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. Most of the international games are on NFL Network. In addition, in London affairs, there's Pittsburgh and New Orleans in Week 7 from Paris; Cincy, Atlanta Week 9 from Madrid — and all those games are on NFL Network. Week 3 there's a game on CBS — the Ravens and the Cowboys from Rio de Janeiro; the Patriots, Lions Week 10 from Munich on Fox; and the Vikings, 49ers Week 11 from Mexico City on NBC. These games are 9:30 a.m. kickoffs, least-viewed games of the year. Justin, you live in California — are you waking up at 6:30 Pacific Time to watch Sunday international games?

Nielson: No, probably not. I'll... although I've gotten up for some of the F1 and EPL games. Okay. But no, probably not — not unless I'm really interested in those teams.

Reynolds: Okay. All right, Mike, despite having one international game apiece in terms of Fox, CBS, and NBC, I can't imagine Fox and CBS are happy. The guys who really like football are watching the live games as opposed to their pre-game shows. Do you agree?

Johnson: Yeah, it's a fascinating time with the NFL's international push right now, and while Fox and CBS can't be too thrilled about losing some Sunday-morning eyeballs to games overseas, the league's bigger picture is all about maximizing reach and revenue — things like that. And the NFL is strategically spreading these tentpole moments — some on broadcast, some on streaming, some on NFL Network — to keep every partner engaged in this fragmented media landscape. So with the league's leverage here, it's tough for the networks to be too upset, and they just have to probably roll with it a bit. For CBS, they're coming off a record-setting year, but they're heading into this year without some key matchups like they've had in the past without Chiefs-Bills and the Thanksgiving late window. But they're still counting on some big games like Packers-Vikings, Cowboys-Rams, like you mentioned, and a Cowboys international game to drive viewership. So yeah, both CBS and Fox... They've made rumors about holding off on renegotiating NFL rights until closer to the 2029 opt-out. They're confident in their strong partnerships with the league. As the NFL pushes for more international games in the future, networks know that keeping the NFL happy is crucial for these future rights on the horizon here.

Reynolds: Yeah, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has talked about hosting the Super Bowl abroad. Real quick — is this a good idea, Iuri? Would you like to see that happen?

Struta: I think that's a very good idea, and it would be great for the NFL to make more inroads globally into different markets like the UK market. I understand in the German market the NFL has some popularity, and it can educate an international audience about the game — and you never know, maybe it gets a wider and wider appeal. But this is definitely long-term. If you do that, it has to be a long-term commitment, because in certain cases you need a generation or two to pass before they start liking the game, and maybe start playing the game.

Reynolds: Scott, is that a good idea?

Robson: I'm going to go ahead and say yes, as I think it will create a ton of free advertising for the league. You know— if Goodell makes this happen, there'll surely be an avalanche of whiny articles published, which is just free advertising. So, yes.

Reynolds: How about you, Justin?

Nielson: I'm not a big proponent of it going international, but I would almost like to see something more along the lines of the World Baseball Classic, where you've got teams that are good in Europe and Asia coming together for an international championship.

Reynolds: Oh, that would be interesting. Yeah. All right, Mike, how about you? You want to watch a Super Bowl game that's not in the US?

Johnson: It's definitely a bold idea. The league's recent Super Bowl picks — like Nashville and Vegas — show they're still focused, within the next five to 10 years, on US cities that can deliver that massive event feel and handle the unpredictable weather, things like that. Not ruling anything out in the future — international appeal is definitely growing across all the major leagues, but I think for the short term, the appeal of the American TV audience probably keeps it stateside.

Reynolds: All right. Hey, Goodell, speaking to some German media, again talked about — yes, we're going to, at some point (God knows when), have an NFL team in Europe. Maybe — got to think it's London or Munich or Berlin. Iuri, if there were a team in London or a team in Munich, would that work?

Struta: Yeah, I think it could work, because you're probably going to find a certain number of people who will watch the game, and they could even be fans and so on — you always find people that love this game. I've looked at the games that you mentioned at the Hotspur stadiums and I think there is one at Wembley. Yeah, the tickets are pretty expensive, and I've looked at buying some tickets, and there isn't a big number of tickets available — this speaks to the fact that people buy tickets and go to watch it, and it's probably going to be a big success.

Reynolds: Scott, does it make more sense if the league is going to expand internationally to stay in North America — Toronto or Mexico City?

Robson: Yes, I think time zones are huge here, and ease of travel as well. Toronto has proven to be a great sports city and would be a great start for international expansion. Mexico City would also be a good city to ease into making the league a little bit more global. So yes, I would be an advocate of them starting in North America with the expansion.

Reynolds: Yeah, me too. Justin, if they were to go to London — and that's got to be the front-runner if they're going to go to Europe — would players want to go there? Separated by thousands of miles from their families, from their alma maters — at the same time, if you got some injuries, you're probably going to have to look at folks who are in the States to fill your roster. So does that make any sense?

Nielson: It makes business sense for sure, tapping into that market. But from a player's perspective, there's only so many slots for NFL teams, so I think they're going to go where the money is, right?

Reynolds: Okay. All right. Let's go to this year's Super Bowl — number 61 at SoFi Stadium in LA, ESPN's first ever. ABC will simulcast its first Super Bowl since 2006. Justin, how big of a deal is this for the worldwide leader in sports?

Nielson: Oh, it's a huge deal. We had talked with Adam Monaco at the Kagan Summit back in June, and he said it is one of their tentpole events for the year. Being on Valentine's Day creates a little bit of a challenge, and we'll get into that. But the simulcast with ESPN and ABC — you're going to reach the widest audience possible. Will it hit records? I think it will.

Reynolds: All right. And Mike, again, they're sub-licensing the game to Televisa, Univision's broadcast station. The game's also going to be on ESPN Deportes. ESPN mega-casts all its big games — I would assume they're going to do the same for the Super Bowl. Any insights as to what we might see that way?

Johnson: Yeah, definitely. ESPN's definitely going all out for its Super Bowl this year. Like you just mentioned, the game will air on ESPN, but also ABC with its simulcast. You'll also be able to catch it in Spanish on both ESPN Deportes and Univision, like you said. And yeah, ESPN plans to bring its mega-cast approach from the CFP to the Super Bowl. So you're not just getting the traditional Buck and Aikman broadcast booth — there's going to be a ton of alternative feeds and experiences. You could probably expect the Manningcast with Peyton and Eli. There's talk of a Pat McAfee "Field Pass" alt-cast as well. Disney's kinda teased a possible animated kids' cast with Disney characters. And then they're just going to have a huge onsite presence as well at the Santa Monica Pier for Super Bowl week. So they're basically turning the week into a media blitz throughout the entire week — all their studio shows broadcasting from LA and a huge push to make this the most-watched Super Bowl ever.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. Let's go advertising. Game sold out in August — earliest ever. Justin, you mentioned we had Adam Monaco, the EVP of Sales at Disney Advertising, as a guest at the Kagan Summit. At that point, they were still talking about maybe getting some $10 million per 30-second spot. Not sure how much of that occurred, but again, most of the reports today talk about $8 million to $9 million. Scott, what does this say about the strength of the Super Bowl?

Robson: It just really highlights how it's an event that's unlike any other on television in terms of just drawing a massive audience. They're able to raise the price of these ads every year without fail. I think that as the Nielsen numbers grow with the addition of Panel Plus big data we're going to see it turn into an even better deal for advertisers, as it will show even more beneficial CPMs. And it's no surprise that they're already selling — and looking to sell — at a higher value.

Reynolds: All right. Justin, you mentioned the game is on Valentine's Day. Guys, have you formulated your game plan to account for romance amid the gridiron's biggest moment? Justin, you brought it up.

Nielson: Yeah, I did bring it up, and being in a household with all women and girls, it is going to be difficult. It really depends on who the halftime show is. So, if we get a Bad Bunny or maybe a Sabrina Carpenter, we'll see. So yeah.

Reynolds: All right, Scott, how about you? What's your— Yeah — navigation plan?

Robson: Yeah, I haven't even really thought about it yet, but I don't think there's going to be a lot of pushback about treating Saturday the 13th like Valentine's Day this year. Okay. So I'll go with that.

Reynolds: Mike, do you think that's the case — that Valentine's Day is switching to a day ahead?

Johnson: Yeah, that sounds great to me. I'll be honest, I'm not even sure how the game will be on Valentine's Day — it seems like I try to balance romance with football every single weekend in the fall and winter anyways — so I don't think it'll be anything new for me personally.

Reynolds: All right, all right — I'm the moderator here, so I'm taking the fifth until we get much closer to kickoff. Anyway, last year's NFL title game was not much of a contest — Seattle overwhelmed the Patriots. Still, the game tallied just under 125 million across NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, and other outlets. That's down about 2% from the year before, when the Eagles on Fox dethroned the Chiefs' bid for a three-peat. Again, as we mentioned, mega-cast, lots of outlets — despite the Valentine's Day situation, is this going to become the most-watched NFL game ever? Scott, how about you — what do you think?

Robson: It really depends on the matchup, but I think that the Valentine's Day timing could actually take a hit out of the audience, albeit a minor one. The Super Bowl is at a peak in terms of viewership, in my opinion. Nielsen can change its methodology to account for people watching from TVs inside a Best Buy or whatever, but I think the reality of the situation is that it's the most-watched broadcast every year by a large margin, and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. So we're really just adjusting the margins here. As Justin mentioned, the halftime show could boost the numbers a bit if they get a large-performing artist, but I think we're going to see the audience hovering around 120 million.

Reynolds: Okay. Mike, how about you?

Johnson: Yeah, it's a great question. There's definitely a lot to consider with this Super Bowl. On paper, it has all the ingredients to break the viewership record — a fresh network in the rotation, a Spanish-language telecast on both Univision and ESPN Deportes, a mega-cast lineup like we've mentioned before, kids' cast, a year-long Disney promotional blitz. Plus, you've got the Valentine's Day effect — this could go either way, in my opinion, like Scott mentioned. The game falls on the Sunday right before Presidents' Day as well, so people have that Monday off.

Reynolds: You got the next day off, right?

Johnson: Yep. So it's basically a three-day holiday for football. So I'll say yes — it'll be the most-watched ever, and potentially reach almost 130 million.

Reynolds: Justin, thumbs up or thumbs down to Mike's prediction?

Nielson: I think thumbs up as well. It really depends on what the matchup is going to be and the halftime show. But, hey, if the Cowboys make it to the Super Bowl for some reason, it could shatter records.

Reynolds: Yeah. Okay, let's talk a little bit about Kagan research, getting into the valuation game for team sports. Iuri, you guys are going to be publishing the valuations shortly. Dallas is on top, right?

Struta: Yes, Dallas is on top — not a big surprise. Valuation of $15.4 billion estimated. Okay. This is followed by — you're probably going to like this — New York Giants with $12.3 billion. Okay. And the Los Angeles Rams with $11.5 billion. Okay. And Seattle is worth what it was sold for in our model, at $9.6 billion. And the way the model works, we do have a lot of data inputs from Kagan — around 12. Okay. So we use these data inputs for each team — 12 inputs per team — to create a sort of quality index for each team based on, it could be, the quality of their stadium, how developed the metropolitan area is, how rich the metropolitan area is, what the available disposable income is, how popular the team is, what the average attendance at home games is, as well as, a little bit less but still, performance on the pitch. So, you know, if you are performing better, then you're probably getting a sort of leg up. And we do a ranking of all these scores, and then assign a valuation to each team based on the latest transactions that happened. And we're looking mostly at full takeover transactions rather than acquisitions of minority stakes. Yeah. Because full transactions are the most indicative of where valuation stands, and pretty much everyone knows — basically, the Seattle Seahawks transaction is a key indicator now of where NFL teams are valued. And if we're having another deal in a few months — a full takeover, for example, or a majority stake acquisition — then we'll see if the market has moved up or down, and then we'll update our model accordingly. And we can also say that our work on transactions is showing that valuations in the NFL have expanded a lot over the past ten years. And revenues have grown strongly — this is one factor, due to growing TV and media rights, you know this better. But at the same time, revenue multiples have expanded. So, even five or seven years ago, teams were valued at about mid- to high-single digits, depending on which team, what its ranking is in terms of quality of stadium, as I mentioned before. Now they are valued from low to mid double digits. So you will never buy an NFL team now and pay single-digit multiples to revenue — you need to start from double digits, from even twelve to fifteen, even to sixteen.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. I mentioned the Nielsen big data and panel methodology — there's the panel, there's data from set-top boxes and other devices, so that certainly helped matters. Scott, if we can just quickly review — let's go to NBC Sports. Sunday Night Football is the top linear show on TV for the 15th or 16th year?

Robson: Yes. Yeah, so Sunday Night Football has been the most-watched show in primetime for 15 consecutive years, and I don't think that's coming to a close anytime soon. It's a very valuable property for NBC, and it fits into the network's Sunday-night sports strategy, which has live action from the NFL, NBA, and MLB basically year-round. Yep. Yeah, the price of a 30-second ad on Sunday Night Football is over a million dollars, which is the highest of any primetime show — so, very lucrative property for NBC. Last year, the series averaged 23.5 million viewers, which was up 9% from 2024. But again, the new Nielsen methodology could be responsible for some of that lift.

Reynolds: I gotcha. Justin, how about CBS? Good year for them as well.

Nielson: It was. CBS, in its last season, was its best ever with the NFL, with an average audience of about 21 million for all its games — 11% up from the previous season. The highlight being the Thanksgiving Day matchup between Kansas City and Dallas, which had an average audience of 57.2 million and still stands as the most-watched regular-season game in NFL history. Any game with the Cowboys and the Chiefs is probably going to hit records, right?

Reynolds: No doubt. All right, Mike, how about on the Fox front?

Johnson: Yeah, Fox had a strong year, honestly — one of their best in a decade, numbers-wise. They averaged, I think it was 19.6 million viewers per NFL game, which was up 6% from the previous season and their highest mark since 2015. It's just a huge number, and Fox's America's Game of the Week in that 4:25 Eastern window continues to be a ratings monster. Last season, I think they averaged just under 24 million viewers, also posting its best numbers since 2015 as well. And then you look at the Thanksgiving Packers-Lions matchup at 1:00 Eastern — it was Fox's top game this season and also the second most-watched regular-season game across the league, pulling in almost 48 million viewers on average. The combination of the new ratings methodology and the NFL's dominance in the broadcasting landscape really gave it a boost last season.

Reynolds: All right, Mike, I'm going to stick with you — Monday Night Football, how did we do last year?

Johnson: ESPN/ABC had their second-best season ever across the 21 games. Monday Night Football, they averaged close to 16 million viewers, which was up 9% over 2024, and when you factor in the Saturday doubleheader that they had in Week 18, that average jumps to 16.5 million viewers per game — a 10% jump from the previous year. And individual game-wise, there were some monster audiences as well. ESPN had five games that topped 20 million viewers, and that season finale, when Seattle beat San Francisco to clinch the NFC's top seed, pulled in over 27 million in primetime. So that was the biggest audience for a regular-season game in the final week ever. So yeah, Monday Night Football is as relevant and as powerful as ever, and with the simulcast on ABC, it's reaching even more fans across the board.

Reynolds: Yep, absolutely. Scott, we'll go to the streaming side with Amazon's Thursday Night Football on Prime Video.

Robson: Yes. Yeah, so Amazon took over as the primary rights holder for Thursday Night Football in 2022, so this will be the fifth season under that deal. Viewership was up 16% last year to an average of 15.3 million. This is also up 60% from 2022, when the games averaged 9.5 million viewers. Now, I think some of this has to do with the growth of streaming, but it also has to do with stronger matchups on Thursday night — games can be flexed now in order for that slot to provide more relevant matchups. Amazon also does some interesting things with its coverage by providing alternative broadcasts with advanced analytics that make the games interesting for super-fans and stat enthusiasts. In July, it was announced that NBC would no longer provide production resources for Thursday Night Football, so Amazon is going to be fully in control of that for the first time this season.

Reynolds: Okay. Guys, we're getting to the end here — time for our fearless Super Bowl predictions. Last year, our picks were for the birds — I went Eagles over the Bills, the three of you went Ravens. Nevermore. So who's playing and winning Super Bowl LXI, ESPN's first-ever NFL championship telecast? It's on Valentine's Day. Iuri, you're a rookie here — you first.

Struta: So, I think the Kansas City Chiefs will return to the top this year after a few rough years for them. I think this is the year they come back.

Reynolds: Mike, what do you think about who's going to be playing on Valentine's Day?

Johnson: Yeah, I'm going to go with the blockbuster — I'm going to go Rams and Bills. Okay — the Rams are definitely loaded. On the other side, you have the Bills hungry to win a championship, with Josh Allen in his prime. But I'll say the Bills pull it off, finally.

Reynolds: Okay. All right, Scott, your third-down call here.

Robson: Yeah, so I think the Rams at home is a really hard thing to bet against, but I'm going to hit you guys with an interesting stat — out of the 60 Super Bowls, only six pre-season favorites have gone on to win. And the Rams are now pre-season favorites, so take that with what you will. I'm going to go with the Ravens again.

Reynolds: Okay. All right, I didn't know it was only six out of 60, so maybe I will be wrong here — make it six out of 61, 'cause I'm going Rams. A lot of firepower, as you mentioned, home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium. I say they beat the Broncos — Sean Payton experiencing another painful loss to the Rams, like he did with the Saints at the NFC Championship game back in 2019. Last word to you, Justin — who's playing in the game?

Nielson: I think I'm going to go with the Rams as well, although I would really like to see — we've seen the Subway Series, I'd love to see the Freeway Series with the Chargers and the Rams in the Super Bowl.

Reynolds: That would be interesting — they would love that out there. Anyway, that concludes this episode of MediaTalk. I wanted to let you know that Mike has published an extensive NFL preview on our CapIQ Pro platform. It touches on a number of these subjects and has a lot more facts and figures. This is Mike Reynolds — thanks to all of you for listening. Enjoy the NFL's opening weekend. We'll catch up soon on the next episode of MediaTalk.