MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 34 - Kickoff Time: What This Season's College Football Shakeups Mean for Media, Money

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence Tech, Media and Telecom News team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global, where the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-changing media landscape. Today I'm joined by a trio of S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan analysts: Justin Nielson is head of Kagan Research, and he specializes in broadcast, among other things; principal analyst Scott Robson, who tracks U.S. TV networks and sports; and research analyst Michael Johnson, MJ, who is now in his third year on the U.S. sports beat.

Today we're going to talk about the 2026-'27 college football season, notably conference realignment, which seems to occur every year; network affiliations; the CFP playoffs, regular season and attendant viewership; and a number of legal and business matters. And to top it all, we'll offer our expert championship projections.

This year we're recording a few days ahead of the so-called Week Zero contest, so we'll kick things off there. The slate starts with North Carolina — in its second season with Bill Belichick at the helm — against TCU at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. The game's on ESPN. Last year, the Horned Frogs drubbed the Tar Heels, I think it was 48-14. Not a good start for the former New England Patriots head coach. Better year ahead for Belichick?

Michael Johnson: Yeah, hey, Mike. Honestly, it's hard to imagine things going much worse than last year for North Carolina. There's definitely room for improvement. I think they missed a bowl game for the first time since 2018, got blown out in a bunch of games, and had a lot of off-field drama.

I think this year the expectations are pretty modest — I think they're picked to finish toward the bottom of the ACC. If they can just hold their own and be somewhat competitive, I think it'll be a step forward.

Reynolds: Okay, all right. Scott, there are a lot of networks in play during Week Zero. NBC has San Jose State against No. 14 USC. There's NC State against UVA on ESPN. Fox has Memphis-UNLV. The CW has New Mexico State against Florida State. ACC Network has Hawaii and Stanford. There are other games as well. Do any of these intrigue you, Scott, or will you wait until Week One to get your college football fill?

Scott Robson: Yeah, hi, Mike. Thanks for having me. I'm still a bit of a casual college football fan, so I usually just stick to watching marquee matchups. But in this first week that football's back, I'll probably check out the USC game, given that USC is ranked.

Reynolds: Okay, all right. Justin, what do you think of UNC and TCU? And you have your eyes on another international collegiate affair a few weeks down the road, right?

Justin Nielson: I do. I'm actually making the trip to London in Week Three to see my Sun Devils play the Jayhawks at Wembley for the Union Jack Classic — it'll be the first international game for my alma mater.

As for UNC and TCU, there's been a lot of talk about whether Belichick can turn things around after year one. TCU is coming in with a new quarterback, since their previous one moved on to Indianapolis. So we'll see — that could be a pretty good game. It could be a bellwether for the ACC-Big 12 matchup. Who knows?

Reynolds: Yeah, it's the first one of the year, so I'll be checking out a bit of it anyway. Let's move on to what now seems like a perennial topic in college sports: realignment. Last year the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 all added squads. Justin, let's stay with you on the Pac-12. It used to be the home of your Arizona State Sun Devils — they're now in the Big 12. What does the revamped Pac-12 look like?

Nielson: It's interesting — I'm old enough to remember when Arizona State and Arizona were in the WAC, the Western Athletic Conference. So it's kind of a back-to-the-future situation, with the Pac-12 bringing together some of these old Mountain West and WAC teams.

There should be a lot of parity, with some of the original members like Oregon State and Washington State in the mix. I think it'll be interesting. I also thought it was interesting that Washington State plays in Week One — that's weird — but we'll see how the rivalry game turns out, because Washington has a pretty good squad this year.

Reynolds: Okay. Scott, there are also changes afoot with the Mountain West, and they've got some really interesting media wrinkles.

Robson: Yes. The Mountain West is an interesting conference in that it was the first to launch a dedicated cable network, back in 2006, I believe. The network closed down in 2012, but it really paved the way for channels like the Big Ten Network and the SEC Network. Anyway, the Mountain West was very active during the offseason, signing what they're calling the broadest media distribution plan in the conference's 27-year history.

The new deal has games spread across CBS, Fox, The CW and the Kiswe streaming platform. Aside from the media rights deal, the conference underwent a shakeup, with five schools leaving for the Pac-12, as Justin just mentioned, and two new full-time member schools — Hawaii and UTEP — joining the conference, along with two football-only schools, North Dakota State and Northern Illinois.

So it'll be interesting to see how those teams face off against each other this season.

Reynolds: Yeah, there are a lot of moving parts there. And maybe we're getting slightly ahead of ourselves here, Mike, but the Mid-American Conference will have some changes for next season.

Johnson: Yeah, so the MAC is heading into the last year of its media deal with ESPN, which has given us those famous midweek MACtion games and put the conference in the national spotlight. But along with the exposure, it's also made it tough for fans who attend the games midweek to stay engaged, especially as more matchups have moved to ESPN's streaming platform and to CBS Sports Network through a sub-licensing deal. With the contract set to expire after this upcoming season, they face some big decisions — sticking with ESPN or CBS, or potentially looking for new partners, maybe even streaming services. They're also adding Sacramento State for football, which boosts the league to 13 teams, setting up the conference for new media rights negotiations.

Reynolds: Right. In an idiosyncratic way, I like this conference because of the names — Akron Zips, Central Michigan Chippewas, Kent State Golden Flashes. Anyway, Mike, let's stay with you and talk about the Big Ten. They've won the last three CFP championships, and if you look at the preseason polls, Ohio State and Oregon are ranked one and two.

Johnson: Yeah, obviously the Big Ten is on top of the college football world right now — three straight CFP championships, like you mentioned — and they're entering year four of the massive seven-year media rights deal with Fox, CBS and NBC. The agreement is worth over $8 billion, which is by far the biggest in college sports.

Looking back at last season, Big Ten games averaged nearly three million viewers. Ohio State led that charge, with their wins over Michigan and Texas — I think those were the most-watched games of the year, pulling in over 18 million and 16 million viewers, respectively. Off the field, though, Fox just bought back the rights to this year's Big Ten championship game from NBC — a deal valued at over $50 million. So Fox will air five of the seven title games under the current deal. Big Ten media power and on-field dominance are both at an all-time high, making them the conference to beat in every sense.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Scott, you're an Austin, Texas, resident now, and the University of Texas is in the SEC given the realignment. Give us the update on this year's Southeastern Conference.

Robson: Yeah, I know you guys can't see me right now, but I'm putting up the horns. The SEC was the dominant conference in college football for much of the past two decades, thanks to Alabama, LSU and Georgia all winning multiple titles. But as Michael mentioned, the Big Ten has been on a hot streak lately, capturing the last three championships. So I think it's going to be a crucial year for the SEC to stop that streak from getting out of hand, and I think the first big test will be on September 12th, when the University of Texas plays Ohio State.

The SEC is in the third year of its 10-year deal with ESPN. The conference is getting around $710 million annually through its media rights deal, and for good reason — it's the most-watched conference, with games averaging nearly five million viewers last season.

This year there's more conference action, with a nine-game conference schedule. That should make for better competition, with teams like Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Tennessee all facing off more frequently.

Reynolds: Yeah, no doubt. And to both of your points about Ohio State and Texas — Ohio State-Michigan is always the most-watched college football regular-season game of the year, and last year the opener between Texas and Ohio State was second. Anyway, Justin, tell us what's going on with the Big 12.

Nielson: Yeah, the Big 12 is entering its second year of its six-year, $2.3 billion rights deal with Fox and ESPN. The average payout is about $380 million — a huge increase, and one of the reasons a bunch of these teams switched from the old Pac-12 to the Big 12. There are also sub-licensing agreements with TNT, CBS and NBC.

For the Big 12, they want to break into that top three or top four among conferences, especially when it comes to the championship at the end of the season. They've always felt like kind of the stepchild to the Big Ten and the SEC in terms of getting those slots. So they want to make a big splash at the top of the conference, which includes teams like Texas Tech, BYU and Utah.

Reynolds: All right, appreciate that, Justin. And if you don't mind, what about the ACC this year?

Nielson: Yeah, the ACC is in the middle of its landmark 20-year, $4.8 billion media rights agreement with ESPN. It's interesting in the sense that, with D2C and other unlimited options, the ACC will have games available across several platforms for some of their premier events, but as you mentioned, some of the other games will be on The CW and CW Sports. So it'll be interesting to see their exposure across some of the major media markets, as well as with their fan base.

There are a few teams in there, like Clemson, that haven't really been what Clemson was a few years ago, but there's a big premier game with LSU that could change that — if Clemson is able to pull off an upset. And then there's also Miami — kind of a return to power as the behemoth of the ACC — and Florida State, who may make a rebound. We'll see.

Reynolds: Sure. All right, Mike — speaking of the ACC, Notre Dame is a member in other sports but not football. And forgive me if I've gotten this wrong, but Notre Dame is ranked either third or fourth in the preseason polls. Most of its games air on NBC and Peacock. They could have a really strong year.

Johnson: Yeah, Notre Dame football is always a bit of an oddball — I mention them in the ACC conversation since they're a member, like you said, in pretty much every other sport except football. That independence is something they protect pretty hard. They're No. 3 in the AP preseason poll.

Most of their games are on NBC, thanks to their extended partnership from late 2023 that runs through 2029. They also have one home game per year streaming exclusively on Peacock. But yeah, they're absolutely loaded this year — veteran talent led by quarterback CJ Carr, plus some superstar recruits. Miami comes to South Bend in November, so that's shaping up to be a game-of-the-year candidate.

Reynolds: That's the game, I think, right?

Johnson: Yep, yep. So honestly, I think it's College Football Playoff or bust for Notre Dame this year.

Reynolds: All right. Overall, Scott, we've mentioned some of the viewing numbers along the way. It was a really good year for college football overall last year — a lot of interest in the game, and a bit of a benefit from the new Nielsen methodology, which incorporated its traditional panels with some big-data elements. 2025 was a very good year for college football audiences.

Robson: Yes, 2025 was a great year for college football viewership. Aside from the NFL and big events like the World Cup and the Olympics, it captures one of the largest audiences on television. In 2025, viewing time for college football was up 10%. ESPN had its best season since 2011. ABC averaged nearly seven million viewers per game. Fox's audience was up 12% year-over-year. ACC games on ESPN were up 70% — so, very strong results. I think the expanded playoff format has also been great for viewership.

Reynolds: All right, I was going to get to that and the CFP. There was no shortage of debate during the offseason — we're currently in the 12-team playoff format, and there's talk of 14, 16, 24, 28 teams — but none of that has materialized yet. Mike, there are some changes afoot this year with the CFP.

Johnson: Yeah, the CFP is entering a pretty exciting new chapter this year. No expansion, but beyond all the talk about that, the CFP is actually rolling out a refreshed brand identity this offseason. Fans will notice new logos for some of the games — the quarterfinal and semifinal bowl games, like the Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl and so on — so visually, it's a bit of a facelift for the CFP. That coincides with the start of ESPN's six-year, $7.8 billion media rights extension — a deal that more than doubled the annual value of the previous agreement. It secures ESPN's exclusive control of the CFP through the 2031-32 season, and for up to 14 teams if expansion occurs.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Justin, with 12 teams, there's always a Team 13 or 15, or the odd team out. There's always going to be complaints about this, no matter what the format, right?

Nielson: No, absolutely. Look at the basketball tournament — they've expanded it a few different times, and there are still teams complaining about not getting into the field. From that perspective, I think if expansion does happen, it will probably occur at the home stadiums of whoever's favored. That seems to be the direction things are heading — you'd have the quarterfinals, semifinals and finals among the big bowl events, and then home-and-home series for some of the wild-card or lower-seeded teams. There are so many permutations of how that could occur, but I feel like that's probably the direction — some kind of wild-card format, or additional teams added to the mix.

Reynolds: Yeah, makes sense. Scott, you mentioned the CFP drives good audiences as well. If there were expansion, there might be more games on weeknights or going up against the NFL. That's been a bit of a bugaboo the first couple of years.

Robson: Yes, we're going to see a bit of a crowded December with the amount of meaningful football on TV. The NFL is the big brother here and will usually attract a larger audience when going up against a college game, and I think those in charge of scheduling are aware of that. So we're going to see College Football Playoff games spread across multiple days, including weeknights, to minimize conflict with the NFL. The national championship game is being moved to late January, so it's outside the NFL playoff window, which I guess is good for fans. But there's also going to be nearly two weeks of downtime between the semifinal and the final game, which could dim momentum a bit. That said, college football is filled with rabid fan bases, so the extended break will probably just give diehards more time to argue with each other. And last year's championship between Indiana and Miami averaged over 30 million viewers, which was the most since 2015 — so it's going to be hard to top.

Reynolds: That's right. Yeah, I think the championship game this year is January 25th, so it is a couple of weeks after the other games, but again, I know a lot of us will be watching. All right, Mike — back to the upcoming season — TNT has an expanded playoff presence this year?

Johnson: Yeah, TNT has a bigger piece of the CFP this year — two first-round games, two quarterfinal games and even a semifinal game. That's a big jump from just sub-licensing a couple of early-round matchups before. So if the CFP does expand beyond 12 teams, you can probably bet there'll be even more interest from networks like TNT to pick up more games. It could really open the door for others, like Fox, which used to have a stake in the playoffs, to try to get back in. And with the way things are going, don't be surprised if streaming giants like Amazon or Netflix throw their hats in the ring, too.

Reynolds: Gotcha. All right, Justin — you mentioned basketball, and the March Madness tournaments for both the men and women have expanded a couple of times and could again this year. Your thoughts — should the CFP have more teams?

Nielson: I think so, but it further diminishes the other bowl series, and there will be teams that pull out of some of those bowls because of what's happening in the free-agent market — I guess you'd call it — for college football. A lot of those players will be looking to get bigger and bigger NIL deals elsewhere, so it's become kind of a transfer-portal season in between those bowl games. But yeah, if they're going to expand it, they'll have to get those bowl partners to buy in and potentially move those sponsorships to the new games.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Scott, what do you think?

Robson: Yeah, I like seeing brackets that are equal and symmetrical, so I like 64-, 32- or 16-team playoffs for that reason. I'm all for the College Football Playoff moving from 12 to 16 teams, but beyond that, it seems like it could be an issue. I think the bigger issue is that they need to work out the seeding a bit. There's no getting around first-round blowouts — that's just going to happen when there are four or five teams on a much higher level than the rest of the field. But I think the committee can do a better job with seeding.

Reynolds: Mike, last word to you here.

Johnson: Yeah, I'm right there with Scott. I think 16 teams feels like a good balance for expansion. Like we discussed, one of the trickiest aspects of this is scheduling. If the playoff keeps growing, fitting all those games into the calendar without stepping on the NFL's toes or diluting the regular season is going to be a big challenge. Yeah, I'd go with 16 teams.

Reynolds: All right, guys, we're getting to the end here. Let's talk about some legal and fiscal issues — player eligibility. Some players have been on the college field for five, six, and in one or two cases, maybe even seven seasons. I think a lot of that had to do with COVID. But now there's a group of players who've been granted a restraining order related to entering the transfer portal — they're looking to give college players a fifth year of eligibility. Sixteen college players were among the more than 30 plaintiffs who secured this temporary restraining order in Louisiana. There's a case scheduled for August 31st. Anybody want to weigh in on this real quick?

Nielson: Mike, I'll weigh in just briefly. We talked about the NIL money, and some of the largest teams getting $40 million-plus in NIL spending. That's increased two-, three-, fourfold, and there's definitely a drop-off between those top teams and the next rung. In the case of undrafted players on NFL squads coming back to college, there's precedent for that happening in basketball, right? And there's been some pushback regarding international players playing at the professional level coming back to college. So I think there definitely need to be rules in place regarding eligibility and amateurism, because you're going to see more and more of these situations where, if a player doesn't make an NFL roster, they're saying, "Well, there's still money to be made in college."

Reynolds: Yeah, those NIL coffers are definitely getting bigger — it's a way to still play and get paid, even if you're not in the pros per se. Scott, what can you tell us about the Protect College Sports Act? I guess this is supposed to countermand some of this stuff.

Robson: Yes. The Protect College Sports Act was established to ensure fair compensation for athletes. It gives athletes the right to earn NIL money without restrictions. It states that agent fees can't exceed 5%, and that students cannot be penalized for hiring an agent. The act limits athletes to one transfer without penalty, so athletes aren't playing for a new team every year, which is a concern. There are also provisions that allow for greater oversight, and the act regulates media rights and broadcasting access, and even prohibits certain conference mergers to maintain competitive balance. This was initially opposed by the Big Ten and the SEC, but they've come around and now support the act, so we'll see how that unfolds. The act has not been enacted into law as of yet — I think the next key date to watch is September 15th.

Reynolds: Okay, circle that on the calendar. All right, Mike — alternative revenue streams and sponsorships are increasingly coming into play in the college ranks.

Johnson: Yeah, exactly. These alternative revenue streams and sponsorships are really picking up steam, with traditional income sources getting squeezed by conference realignment, rising costs across the board, and legal pressures like we've been discussing. So schools and conferences are looking for creative ways to keep their programs profitable.

We're seeing everything from private-equity investments to big-time sponsorship deals, like the Big 12's roughly $20 million annual partnership with Monster Energy, which includes jersey patches, field logos and things like that. Major programs like Ohio State and Notre Dame are pulling in multimillion-dollar partnerships with brands like JPMorgan and SoFi, showing just how valuable these collaborations are becoming.

But these deals bring their own challenges — potential conflicts with existing partnerships, less transparency, and so on. Going back to the Big 12-Monster Energy deal, doctors and scientists have come out asking the Big 12 and NCAA to pause the sponsorship, citing health risks aimed at youth and similar concerns. So there are issues with these sponsorships as well. You also have schools like UNC considering new business models — completely separate entities to handle finances on their own — creating more flexibility for the programs.

Reynolds: Man, it just gets more complicated every day. All right, let's finish up — this should be a little simpler. Who's going to wear this year's CFP crown? Last year, unsurprisingly, nobody picked the football power now known as the Indiana Hoosiers — IU was a 100-1 shot to win the title. Whether they can make the CFP playoffs for a third consecutive year and go back-to-back without Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who's now the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, is one of the key storylines of the season.

Last year I went with LSU, my son's alma mater, and the Tigers were very mediocre. Lane Kiffin is now the coach, and expectations are high — I hope the Bayou Bengals have a shot at making the playoffs, but I'm going to go with Oregon to win the title this year. Justin, you went with Penn State last year — I believe they were ranked second in the 2025 preseason poll, with a lot of key returnees. It didn't turn out to be a good season for the Nittany Lions.

Nielson: No, not at all — I think I jinxed them at the beginning of the year. This time, I'm going to go with Ohio State, and it's only because my wife's family is from Columbus. I think they'll beat Texas, and I don't think they'll run the table — there's a lot of parity in the Big Ten. So maybe they lose a game, maybe not to Michigan but maybe to Indiana this year — I'm not sure. But I think they make it to the College Football Playoff and win the championship.

Reynolds: All right. Scott, do you agree, or as an Austin guy, are we back to the Longhorns again?

Robson: Yeah, I think the window's open for UT, and it's slowly closing, so they need to play with some fire this season and strike while the iron's hot. I'm going to pick them again.

Reynolds: All right, Mike — last year you pointed to the big 2025 opener between Texas and Ohio State, and you leaned the Buckeyes' way. Is Ryan Day going to get Ohio State back on top like he did in 2025, when they defeated Notre Dame?

Johnson: Yeah, I'm going to give the edge to Ohio State again, like Justin. They're coming in as pretty big favorites this year, motivated to bounce back, and they're loaded with talent, with quarterback Julian Sayin and star receiver Jeremiah Smith. So I'm going with the Buckeyes.

Reynolds: There you have it, everybody — fearless, yes; foolish, perhaps. We'll see. That concludes this episode of "MediaTalk." I wanted to let you know that Mike has published a college football preview that touches on a number of these topics and is packed with a lot more facts and figures. Mike's story is available on CapIQ Pro. Now join me in thanking our Kagan guests — Justin, Scott and Mike — for sharing their knowledge about college football and their picks. I do appreciate it, fellas.

Justin Nielson, Michael Johnson and Robson: Thank you, Mike.

Reynolds: All right, and this is Mike Reynolds. Thanks for listening today, and we'll catch up again next week on the NFL preview installment of "MediaTalk."