MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 30 - What the 2026 FIFA World Cup Taught Global Media Giants Vying for 2030

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Mike Reynolds: I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence Tech, Media and Telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence, where the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-changing media landscape. Today, "MediaTalk" is recapping the 2026 World Cup. After kicking off on June 11th in Mexico City, Spain wound up dethroning the defending champion, Argentina, one-nothing on July 19th in East Rutherford, NJ, capping the 104 matches that played out in 16 stadiums across the US, Mexico, and Canada. To dig into the soccer action, we've assembled a team of Kagan analysts from different parts of the globe. Mike Johnson, MJ, is in Upstate New York, JP O'Sullivan is in London, and Victor Heng is in Singapore. So before we get to the business of the tournament, I wanted to ask a few questions and get your personal takeaways. How much did you watch? Mike, I know when we did the "MediaTalk" preview about the World Cup, you described yourself as a casual fan of international soccer, but you upped your viewership game for the World Cup. Was that the case?

Michael Johnson: Yeah, yeah, that's definitely still true. I'm just usually catching international highlights, big stories, things like that. But this World Cup had me tuning in a lot more, even some group stage matches without the big names, things like that. And the mid-afternoon Eastern US time slot definitely made it really easy for me to watch with my schedule. So yeah, I was tuning in a lot.

Mike Reynolds: All right. JP, how about you? Are you a big fan of the Premier League? Do you follow the English national team, the Three Lions, closely? How about the World Cup?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah. It was a really enjoyable tournament, and obviously, a World Cup is always a major cultural moment in the European markets. Looking at the domestic audiences, they were big. They were well ahead of Qatar, particularly in France, England, and Spain, all of which were semifinalists.

Mike Reynolds: I got you. Victor, how about you? If I'm not mistaken, Singapore is 12 hours ahead of the East Coast here in the States. Were you up at all hours of the night watching some of the matches?

Victor Heng: Yes, you're right. Singapore is 12 hours ahead of the US East Coast. This time around, the kickoff times really started from 12:00 midnight onwards to 3:00 AM, 5:00 AM. These are some of the common kickoff times. But this is just Singapore. If you're talking about Australia, which is not too bad for them, then this could be like 3:00 AM, 5:00 AM, 7:00 AM. But even then, there are people who are watching. I didn't watch, but every night before my son sleeps, he's in elementary school, he will say, "Come Daddy, come, let's check out the statistics." Then we will just check the scores and then we just talk about the teams. I think to him, he just wants to join the fun and be able to go to school and talk to his friends about it. I think he just wants to join the fun. Yeah.

Mike Reynolds: I got you. And I think you told me that there were a lot of watch parties, including overnight, and again, for the kids involved as well.

Victor Heng: Yes. Yes, there are a lot of watch parties, and just think about the hours I just said, it's amazing across the region. I was just checking through for this podcast. It's like, you even see that in Indonesia, lots of watching parties in different parts of the area. In Singapore, the early round matches were mostly behind a paywall. So right from the start, you got viewing parties in community sports centers, pubs, and even McDonald's. McDonald's has always been the one that people go to over the years to watch the World Cup for free. And also an air-conditioned environment.

Mike Reynolds: And McDonald's is a sponsor, so that makes sense, for sure.

Victor Heng: Oh, that's true. That makes sense. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Correct. What was interesting was the final, where a few of the junior high schools had organized watching parties for the students. See, over here it's not school holidays; it's not a summer holiday. It's a normal school term. So some of them, they stay overnight on Sunday, they wake up at 3:00 AM to watch, and then rest and start school later. And some of the schools actually started later on Monday. And for some of the districts, the members of parliament or city mayors actually joined in their district for the final, where you see loads of people there at 1:00 AM watching until 6:00 AM. You can say partying all the way. It was a very big party.

Mike Reynolds: Okay. How about the VAR? A lot of goals were eliminated, or so it seemed, from the use of this technology. JP, your thoughts on that?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah, sure. The technology itself performed well. And also cricket fans, they'll be familiar with Snicko, the sound wave simulator that detects a ball contact. That was usefully deployed. But I think interpretation is where the controversy occurred. Human decisions based on data. But the game in general, it seems to be moving towards absolute accuracy. Now, historically, refereeing was more of an art form. Some were lenient, would let the game flow. Others were a little bit more strict. The tech is certainly here to stay, but the speed of decision-making using the AI techniques that are now available will certainly improve that.

Mike Reynolds: Okay. All right. Mike, any VAR commentary?

Michael Johnson: Yeah, it was definitely a pretty big talking point throughout the World Cup. It felt like every other match had a pretty big goal that was called back after review. And I get why the tech is there to get the call right, but sometimes it does slow down the game and kind of takes away from those somewhat spontaneous moments of excitement throughout the match. I think it was Egypt-Argentina I was watching, and Egypt had a beautiful breakaway goal, and—

Mike Reynolds: Oh, man, length-of-the-pitch run, right? It was crazy.

Michael Johnson: Yeah, yeah. And it was called back, like, it felt like five minutes later. But, you know, I guess these types of reviews are just part of the modern game now. And this technology is just a part of every sport as well.

Mike Reynolds: All right, just one more here, fellas. Mike, again, the final. Spain dominant. Only one-nothing. A dud, a classic? Maybe not the best farewell, a sad farewell for Messi?

Michael Johnson: Yeah. It definitely felt like Spain's coronation rather than a nail-biter. They were just so dominant, especially with how lopsided the shots in the game were. But even then, it was only 1-0. I still kept waiting for Argentina to sneak in a goal out of nowhere and get a little Messi magic. But Spain allowing only one goal all tournament was pretty incredible, and seeing Messi bow out was bittersweet. But his overall tournament was still special to watch.

Mike Reynolds: I got you. And JP, your thoughts on the final?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah. Looking at the tournament overall, Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Modrić, four generational players have now played, I would assume, their last World Cup. And we might have to wait a long time until someone builds up that kind of level of mythos, particularly Messi or Ronaldo. But plenty of interesting players are coming through.

Mike Reynolds: Okay. This World Cup is in the rearview mirror a little bit. Long way to 2030. JP, you think that, again, FIFA has some things it can capitalize on to keep the momentum and grow the sport further?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah, I think the FIFA youth tournaments are probably under-promoted. The Under-20 World Cup in 2025 was won by Morocco, and that's a nation that has really come of age in footballing terms. So the Under-17s event starts in November this year, and then the Under-20s World Cup returns in 2027. So both of these are great opportunities to see players that could emerge at World Cup 2030. But in revenue terms, it's the Women's World Cup next year, and that'll be bigger and better than ever before. And it'll be fascinating to see what Netflix does with the rights in the US and in Canada.

Mike Reynolds: Correct. Yep. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see who they hire to help them do the telecast, or the streaming, I should say. Let's get to the tournament itself, the commercial side. I think FIFA, quote-unquote, nonprofit organization, $11 billion I think was the initial projection. Maybe it was 13. Did it wind up at 15 billion? Mike, any thoughts on how much money this tournament generated?

Michael Johnson: Yeah. Revenue projections were huge from the start. Like you mentioned, they were aiming, I think it was $11 billion, $11 to $13 billion for the 2023–'26 cycle. But now it looks like the total is closer to a record $15 billion, per reports. A big chunk of that came from ticketing and hospitality. I think stadium occupancy throughout the tournament was pretty close to 100%. I think it was 99.7% with just under 7 million total fans and an average of over 65,000 per match, which is wild. Ticket prices were sky-high. Median ticket prices, I think, were above $900, and VIP packages were a lot more than that, obviously. And FIFA, they take, I think it's 15% from both the buyer and the seller on the secondary market too, which really padded the numbers. So it's pretty wild. It just shows how massive and commercial the World Cup has become.

Mike Reynolds: JP, going into the tournament, as Mike has just described, the high ticket prices, the resellers market, all of those good things, I think there was a narrative that suggested maybe there were going to be some empty seats, but clearly that was not the case. Any sense you have for European visitors going over to watch the matches?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah, the demand was very impressive. I think it was 6.7 million attendees in total. One of the reflections on the tournament: the dynamic ticket pricing frustrations are clearly understandable because this is an emotive transaction, but booking a plane ticket or a hotel room, which uses similar mechanisms, is more of a measured and practical decision. So a few considerations: maybe greater ticket access for residents close to the stadium could be a future consideration. In addition to that, 8% of tickets go to each team. Maybe that allocation gets re-examined in the future, but the objectives for the tournament were clearly commercial.

Mike Reynolds: All right. Tickets aside, let's get to the viewing side. Mike, well beyond every possible expectation here in the US?

Michael Johnson: Yeah. It was just a massive event. I'm always a little skeptical of the huge global viewership numbers. I think six billion has been thrown out there, and that kind of just sounds like everyone on Earth is tuned in all at once watching the World Cup. But the scale was incredible. In the US, the final, Spain-Argentina, averaged over, I think, 66 million viewers has been reported. Over 42 million on FOX and just under 24 million on Telemundo. The highest ever for a soccer match here in the US. FOX's biggest non-NFL broadcast for the last 10 years, I think since the 2016 World Series. So it's just a massive event. The expanded 48-team tournament, over 100 matches. I think it was 104 matches. And the US hosted in ideal time zones, which drove record TV ratings and attendance.

Mike Reynolds: JP, I've read other things, and I don't know if this is true on the other side, that Premier League matches, when you go around the globe, there's just gigantic audiences. And if you could give us some flavor for that, and then obviously talk a little bit about what this World Cup drew in terms of European audiences.

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah, I'd say certainly in Europe, the World Cup and the European Championships are unique as national mass-audience events. And you can probably add parts of the Olympic Games to that. Right. Um, but free-to-air coverage is key. Whilst the Premier League, La Liga, and Bundesliga are all extremely popular, they're all on pay TV.

Mike Reynolds: Victor, any sense for what APAC viewership was? Obviously, it's a very large region, but anything that you were able to discern in terms of viewership?

Victor Heng: Yes. It's just so amazing over here. In terms of the broadcast time, it's the wee hours in the morning, and yet the viewership is just amazing. One point to highlight was that the majority of the World Cup across the region are actually behind a paywall, which means that maybe one or two of the elite matches and the last few rounds of matches are actually available for free, and most of it is actually behind a paywall. Then whereas there are four markets in this region that have actually totally free viewing to everyone, which is primarily off of free-to-air and even their own OTT platform. So we're talking about China, Australia, Indonesia, and I think it was Vietnam. Yeah. So Australia is an interesting one where this is a country that has its own sports interests. We talk about Aussie rules football and cricket. So soccer is not at the same priority as those. However, their total TV reach, according to a report, is 18 million, or about 64% of the population, actually watched the whole thing, throughout that whole tournament. And this also beat some of the AFL numbers. In terms of the final, 5.3 million watched. I think this should be around 5:00 AM over there. And China, which is very interesting, they quoted a number: 70 billion views across all platforms. This is, China is owned by the government public broadcaster. So they put out across a few of their media networks and their own platform. In total, they quoted this number, 70 billion. Wow. Which is impressive. And Indonesia is another one that quoted 159 million viewers tuning in on TV and OTT. But this is not the full matches. It's probably halfway through or three-quarters of the way through. They haven't released the numbers yet. Yeah. Another one that I got is Japan. This one is interesting and also similar to Australia. Okay, one thing to keep in mind for Australia is that Australia had a team this time 'round.

Mike Reynolds: Right.

Victor Heng: But it's basically for four matches. I think that makes a lot of difference in the viewing or support from the country. So Japan, the numbers they released so far is that about 68.49 million watched all four of the Japan team's matches, which were in the earlier rounds. I think that's quite impressive. I think all these matches were shown free-to-air, so they got to watch it. Yeah.

Mike Reynolds: I got you. Victor, we talked about China. They were one of the nations that signed a last-minute deal with FIFA. Can you talk about, you wrote an extensive article about some of the latecomers to the 2026 tournament?

Victor Heng: Yeah, sure. China is one of the last few, third to last one, I would say. FIFA actually flew into China to close the deal, and it was with the China Media Group, which is the one that owns CCTV. And theirs was an interesting deal in that they'd gotten both the 2026 and 2030 Men's World Cup editions, plus the women's, also two editions. And one thing about this China was that at least it's the same partner all these years. So it's not a new partner. India is an interesting one, where India was the second to last one. This one was just signed on June 1st or close to June 1st, where the previous partner's bid wasn't successful. So you can see what the price that was asked out there was. So Zee is a commercial broadcaster. They were interested because it was in line with their plans to get back to sports broadcasting. So their contract is the only one that was announced with 39 FIFA events included. So we talk about Men's and Women's World Cup, plus the...

Mike Reynolds: Right.

Victor Heng: Under-20, Under-17. So I think this one is an interesting one where FIFA managed to get in everything, and it'd be interesting to see how it's grown in this long-term contract. Yeah. The other one that was really last minute, this is in Thailand. This was just signed hours before the first kickoff because it was like...

Mike Reynolds: Okay.

Victor Heng: ...a lot of talks, and this one, FIFA didn't even fly down. Or it wasn't reported that they were there. So the partner is known as Jasmine International. So they also clinched a similar deal where they got two rounds of the Men's World Cup, and I think it also includes the Women's World Cup.

Mike Reynolds: You can check out Victor's story on the APAC rights and the rest of Kagan and TMT's coverage of the 2026 World Cup on S&P Global's CapIQ Pro website. Let's go to streaming. JP, is that a big factor in Europe when it comes to the World Cup?

JP O'Sullivan: Yes, it is, but there's still a latency issue, especially if you live in an urban area. So a loud cheer going up from those watching on a broadcast feed is going to impact the enjoyment of a viewer on streaming 30 seconds behind or more...

Mike Reynolds: Really? Wow.

JP O'Sullivan: ...depending on the service. Yeah, so we looked at the numbers in Spain for the final, well over a million via the public broadcaster's streaming service, but the volume is still very much on linear.

Mike Reynolds: I got you. I got you. Mike, how about here in the States? Fox talked some big numbers, and Telemundo seemingly did really well.

Michael Johnson: Yeah, Fox had a monster tournament. Their TV ratings were off the charts. I think they averaged 7.7 million viewers per match, which is a huge increase compared to 2022. I think it was up over 115%. The FOX One streaming service added, I think, an estimated 2.8 million new subscribers throughout the entire event, according to reports. The biggest-ever month for signups, obviously. On social, Fox's content topped over 24 billion views. Digital engagement kind of doubled compared to 2022 as well. And then you also saw their success bleed into other sports, too. They had the MLB All-Star Game; I think it was their largest audience since 2018. But huge numbers all the way around for Fox. Similar for Telemundo as well, they absolutely crushed it. Their Spanish-language coverage set records at every stage. I think streaming accounted for 48% of Telemundo's total World Cup audience compared to 30% in 2022, so a big increase there as well.

Mike Reynolds: I got you. All right. Victor, we've talked about streaming now just in the sense of dedicated services. But there are a couple of big global deals that involved major players as well?

Victor Heng: Yes. FIFA signed these YouTube and TikTok global partnerships right at the start of this year. And I think these two are very interesting ones, as in it covers the whole spectrum of the social media demographic in terms of sports. Yeah. You've got YouTube for, you could say, the older folks, and you've got TikTok for the young, and this is also primarily on mobile. So it's covered. And I think FIFA helps their media partners in terms of this aspect, because in today's era, you cannot forgo social media, and highlights are important. And the only way to put out highlights is like you still have to use YouTube or TikTok or even Facebook or other platforms, depending on where you are. So this one is like, it gives them the permission to cut highlights and put out content by the content creators. FIFA just kind of officially stamped it for them. And the media partners could use the advertising tools on these two platforms to further monetize this FIFA contract. I was just looking at a Singapore site. The local broadcaster, Mediacorp, they were able to churn out thousands of clips for this whole FIFA across goals, highlights, commentary. It's just so amazing. And I think one thing good about this is that it will just extend the whole engagement for a long time.

Mike Reynolds: I got you. Let's talk commercials, fellas. JP, the World Cup, how did it map out in Europe in terms of commercial integration?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah, we're waiting on the Q2 results for the commercial groups in Europe. But interestingly, the latter-stage games fell into early Q3, so it's a wait for the official numbers, but the ratings, they speak for themselves. So we can comfortably predict gains on Qatar or even Euro '24 for a summer comparison.

Mike Reynolds: Mike, in terms of this, this was a Madison Avenue winner for Fox and Telemundo Deportes.

Michael Johnson: Yeah, exactly. We've run through all the viewership numbers already, but I think it's already been reported as far as estimates go that Fox's ad sales, driven by those in-game hydration breaks, are estimated at over $830 million, with the combined total ad sales for Fox and Telemundo close to $1.2 billion, so...

Mike Reynolds: Right.

Michael Johnson: ...a huge increase from 2022 in Qatar. I think it's estimated at a 170% increase. Yeah, most of the commercial upside was already banked in the early rounds, so it was mission accomplished for both networks.

Mike Reynolds: And then as JP alluded to, the business end of the tournament comes in the third quarter, so we'll be finding out more about that as well. You mentioned hydration breaks. Victor, your thoughts as a fan? Did this rock your world? I don't know if the carriers over there ran ads in the hydration breaks, which took place, I guess in general terms, in the 22nd and 67th minutes, essentially, in some people's view, making the match a four-quarter game.

Victor Heng: Yeah. I did ask around. The response wasn't that favorable. So I heard from this fan who watches soccer regularly, he felt that there were like three halftimes, and it was like a break from the viewership, the whole experience. But also, at the same time, keep in mind that in some countries, there is a regulation on the maximum commercial minutes you can have per hour, so some broadcasters can't even use it. The one I saw in Australia, they just put a McDonald's logo over a banner, and people were drinking water in the background.

Mike Reynolds: Right. JP, European reaction that way, and again, as a soccer fan, is this not the way to go?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah, very few went to commercials in Europe. Typically, it was used to promote future fixtures. Some broadcasters promoted their own competitions with entry via a QR code, so a less intrusive commercial tactic. But yeah, as Victor mentioned, advertising restrictions are tighter in Europe, nine minutes per clock hour, lower in some cases. Therefore, why take the editorial risk when you have a pre-kickoff break, another at halftime...

Mike Reynolds: Yeah.

JP O'Sullivan: ...and then a further one ahead of the second-half whistle, and all of those will fall within that first match hour?

Mike Reynolds: We don't abide by advertising regulations so much in the States. Telemundo didn't run any, but Fox ran a lot, right?

Michael Johnson: Yeah, definitely. Fox, they especially capitalized on these breaks. Like we mentioned, it sounds like these breaks alone brought in hundreds of millions in ad revenue. Audience drop-off during these breaks was pretty minimal as well on Fox. Just, I think it was reported, 2 to 3% only. Just for comparison's sake, halftime loses 14% of the audience. So it definitely felt like the American way, turning halves into quarters and monetizing every minute of the game.

Mike Reynolds: I got you. All right, getting to the end here, guys. First World Cup final to go Super Bowl, had halftime entertainment: Madonna, Shakira, Justin Bieber. Did we like this in APAC, Victor?

Victor Heng: Definitely the Justin Bieber and the BTS. They got the right ones. And the K-pop.

Mike Reynolds: Yep, exactly. JP?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah, I think it comes with the territory. It's there to extend reach, and it brings in new, less engaged viewers. But yeah, for, I think for the traditionalist, halftime is still a moment to rest the eyes and put the kettle on.

Mike Reynolds: All right. Mike, and did we like this better than Bad Bunny?

Michael Johnson: Yeah, I think so. Some of the purists didn't really find it too great. It was very long. It was like 27 minutes, which compared to the 15-minute halftime felt a little long. It was a big spectacle, and it fit the American hosting kind of vibe.

Mike Reynolds: All right. This tournament, 104 matches. There are already discussions about the next one in 2030 going up to 128 matches and 64 teams. JP, is that doable? Is that what you think's going to happen?

JP O'Sullivan: 56 teams might be more plausible.

Mike Reynolds: Okay.

JP O'Sullivan: So that's two more groups, which gives room for a small number of third-place teams to advance. But I think the key thing is this does need to be sorted fairly soon because planning is already underway for the qualification formats from the regional federations.

Mike Reynolds: All right. Makes sense. Mike. It would seem the reports suggest 2030 and 2034 will be bundled together. You just wrote an article about handicapping who might be interested here in the US for those rights.

Michael Johnson: Yeah. It's going to be a real battle for the next US rights. You have Fox and Telemundo; they definitely want to keep them. Now you've got ESPN saying they want to enter the mix. NBC and especially Netflix are in the mix as well. Netflix, like we've mentioned, has the Women's World Cup rights and is now eyeing the men's tournament as well. And then you've got some dark horses too, with deep pockets, such as Amazon and YouTube. YouTube set all kinds of records throughout this tournament. They might want to make a bigger splash for the next couple of tournaments. There are also rumors FIFA could package the English and Spanish rights together, with some estimates as high as $4 billion for a bundled deal. So whoever wins, it'll be a massive deal.

Mike Reynolds: Yeah. And TelevisaUnivision, which used to have the World Cup rights in the US before Telemundo had them. Yeah, they're going to make a bid too. So we'll see how this all goes. Anyway, that concludes this episode of "MediaTalk." Just wanted to thank our virtual international guests, JP and Victor, for joining Mike and me back in New York and in talking about the action and the business aspects of the 2026 World Cup. Thanks to all three of you guys.

Michael Johnson: Thank you, Mike.

Mike Reynolds: All right.

Michael Johnson: Thank you.

Mike Reynolds: All right. And this is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. We'll catch up soon in the next installment of "MediaTalk."