MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 20 - Gen Z and Nostalgia: New Power Players to Lift 2026 Summer Box Office Past $4B

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media, and telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global, where the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. Today, I'm joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan senior research analyst Wade Holden. Wade specializes in the box office and all things movies. Wade, how are we doing today?

Wade Holden: I'm doing great, thank you.

Reynolds: Alright. As has been the case the last few times we've talked about the movies, Wade and I are lucky to be joined by Mac Mathews. Mac is associate director of editorial design and publishing at S&P, and a real movie buff. Mac, are you and the family planning to see a lot of movies this summer?

Mac Mathews: Yeah, I mean, they've got some that are aimed right at us— a new Toy Story, a new Minions. Yeah, so sign us up.

Reynolds: Before we get to summer, let's talk about the spring. It's been a pretty strong period. Wade, there are some new films, a holdover with the latest Avatar. Things are good this spring, right?

Holden: Yeah, spring was really great. Up over 14% to 2.67 billion. One of the better springs since the pandemic. Yeah, big hits with Mario Galaxy, Project Hail Mary, Hoppers, and Avatar. Like you said, it brought in 187.4 million in 2026. So yeah, it was a strong spring with a lot of successful films.

Reynolds: All right. Mac, we knew that the second Mario film was going to do well. Yet, and maybe I'm wrong about this, in some circles it's maybe being viewed as a bit of a disappointment. It hasn't measured up to the first go-round at the box office.

Mathews: Yeah, it's interesting the way sequels go these days. You see a few different patterns. Sometimes, Inside Out to Inside Out 2, you get this big jump. But sometimes it's about the timing, and sometimes it's about the quality. And then, who knows what else goes into it. But I wouldn't say that Mario Galaxy is doing too badly, though. It's still around a billion, and—

Reynolds: What’s $1 billion among friends, right?

Mathews: Yeah. And so it's just maybe behaving more like a Jurassic World sequel, where it drops a little from the last one, but it's still good money, and you're going to want to keep making them as long as it stays around that level. They made it for $150 million or so. That's still a great profit margin. You can do several more sequels. I did hear that it wasn't as strong as the first one, though. Word of mouth just wasn't quite there to push it to be the bigger movie of the two.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. Let's talk a little about music. The last few years, we've had Taylor Swift—the concert film did really well. We had a Bruce biopic, maybe not so good. A Dylan biopic, pretty good. And now we've got Michael. Mac, when we spoke last, you had mentioned this.

Again, the name Michael just got out there. There was no need for anything else. People have gravitated toward the man who was the King of Pop.

Mathews: Yeah, it's done really well. It's really found an audience, and it's beating Bohemian Rhapsody or catching up to it. It hasn't even been released in Japan yet, where I believe Michael Jackson has a lot of listeners. So it's just doing really well.

Reynolds: Okay. And Wade, as Mac just said, it's catching up to Bohemian Rhapsody. Now, granted, in the sense that the more recent films feature performers who are still with us—in the case of Michael and Freddie, no longer. But that's impressive that Michael may catch up to Bohemian Rhapsody. I think it's over $900 million globally.

Holden: Yeah, it's around $880 million, $900 million, something like that. We've seen it time and again: musical biopics can draw a good audience. Even the Bob Marley pic not too long ago, Bob Marley: One Love, did well—not $900 million, but still, worldwide, it made about $177 million in 2024. In 2022, we had the Elvis biopic, which made $288 million worldwide. Yeah, there's an appetite for musical biopics out there. People show up and spend their money.

Reynolds: Speaking of Elvis, there was a new Elvis concert film from one of the residencies back in Vegas. Did you see it? Did you wear a cape when you checked it out?

Holden: I did not see it. I'm very curious to see it. I'm sure I'll get it on home video—whether digitally or a 4K release. I want to see it. It should sit well on my shelf next to my Elvis '68 Comeback Special DVD box sets.

Reynolds: Okay.

Holden: But I'm looking forward to it.

Reynolds: All right. Very good. Now, onto summer. Let's agree that, for the purposes of this discussion, summer starts May 1st this year with the Devil Wears Prada sequel, 20 years after the original.

Streep, Hathaway, Blunt, Tucci—they're all back. What do we think, Mac? It's been doing pretty well, right?

Mathews: Yeah, it's doing great. Usually, summer kicks off with a Marvel movie, and this is outperforming Thunderbolts, which started last summer. So it's beating Marvel, and it's amazing to see a movie more geared toward women audiences performing that way— reshaping ideas about what can be successful at the box office and what audiences you need to engage.

There's also been a lot of focus lately on how driven the box office has been by young moviegoers. Gen Z likes to go to the movies. They're kind of taking up the mantle. And that even applies to Michael, which we were just talking about. I think the majority of people going to see Michael are under 34.

These are many who were very young or not born yet when Michael was at his peak, and yet they’re still driving traffic to this movie. We're looking at an evolving landscape where different types of movies fill different slots. We're a little less reliant on superheroes, but other genres are capturing people's attention. It’s a lot of movies based on books and video games — still known properties.

Right now, there's a movie called The Sheep Detectives, an Amazon release not based on existing IP, which is getting great reviews and doing well. It started at about $14 million and has been holding steady, possibly for a while longer. That’s an important part of the conversation—seeing new properties that resonate with audiences.

And from what I hear, The Sheep Detectives is a must-see in theaters. I’ve heard there are three cry parts— who doesn’t want to skip some therapy sessions and just go to the theater and let it out with strangers? There you go.

Holden: On what Mac was saying about younger moviegoers showing up for these films — I wonder if part of it is that a generation has discovered these movies like Freaky Friday and The Devil Wears Prada through streaming, gotten some cultural buzz, and now there's talk of sequels.

Freaky Friday came out last summer and did about $153 million worldwide on a budget of around $42 million. Not bad. So maybe that’s part of what we’re seeing— older properties getting sequels after a decade or more.

Reynolds: All right. What else has come out so far? Now that we're in May, Wade, what else has been released or is about to come out?

Holden: Just this past weekend, there was a new horror film, Obsession, which has garnered some good buzz. It had a decent opening of $17.2 million. It’s not as high as Michael or The Devil Wears Prada 2, but still a solid showing.

Mathews: Obsession was made for under a million, around a million dollars. Making $17 million proves how profitable low-budget horror can be. It’s driven by young moviegoers, and it’s directed by a 26-year-old who started on YouTube— another trend. YouTubers are getting the chance to make movies for low budgets and making bank with young audiences. That’s definitely worth highlighting.

Holden: Perfect. Yeah, I hadn’t dug as deep into it as you, but that’s great. And I was just going to say, this was a rather quiet weekend. Mortal Kombat 2 was supposed to come out, but it was pushed back— probably to take advantage of a couple of weekends with IMAX screens before The Mandalorian and Grogu hit theaters for Memorial Day.

And speaking of family films, there’s The Breadwinner, a Nate Bargatze family comedy. The trailer gave me some Mr. Mom vibes. Also, there’s a horror film called Backrooms, about an endless labyrinth of rooms discovered in an abandoned furniture store— pretty weird. That could be another low-budget horror hit this summer.

Reynolds: Mac, what’s your take on the summer so far?

Sarah James: Ooh, okay. There are a lot of big tentpoles coming, so I think something’s bound to pop. There’s the new Christopher Nolan, Steven Spielberg— I’d love to see those two battle it out. Plus, family films like Minions and Toy Story, superhero movies like Supergirl and a new Spider-Man, and Star Wars kicking things off in just a few days.

I expect all of them to open well, but the quality of the movies will determine which ones really go big or even to the moon. Audience reception and reviews are more influential than ever. It’s no longer just about giving audiences what they’ll accept; they’re savvy and know if something’s hype or not. They’re online, they see the reels, hear from friends right after the theater. That really impacts box office.

I plan to see what works for people and try to be part of the zeitgeist myself.

Reynolds: Wade, does online buzz and word of mouth influence your coverage and your thinking about what to see?

Holden: Absolutely. Online buzz is crucial. It has to cut through the noise of all the available content— TV, streaming, TikTok, YouTube. A strong conversation around a film helps boost opening weekend and sustain momentum, aiming for a solid 12-15 weeks in theaters before it’s replaced.

Reynolds: So, Wade, what’s your outlook for the summer?

Holden: I’m optimistic. The lineup has potential sleepers— films that could go 50/50. For example, Masters of the Universe. Not sure how many He-Man fans are out there now, but some early screenings and social media posts suggest it’s a fun, self-aware time. It’s giving Guardians of the Galaxy vibes— in on the joke, not taking itself too seriously.

And we’re about to see the new Scary Movie franchise— Scary Movie 6, I believe. As opposed to Toy Story 5. It’s funny they named it Scary Movie again, just like the original, and it’s probably emulating the Scream franchise, which called its sixth film Scream again.

I think it’s going to be a good summer. Supergirl looks great— James Gunn knows how to make a superhero film. And I’m excited for the next Spider-Man with Tom Holland, even if it probably won’t reach the heights of No Way Home with Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield.

Later in August, we’ve got Super Troopers 3— a comedy fans are looking forward to.

Reynolds: Absolutely. And what about The Odyssey? I’m rooting for it. Matt Damon as Odysseus, Anne Hathaway as Penelope— star power and a big director. Do you think it’ll work?

Holden: I hope so. The online discourse around casting is intense, but it’s also happened before. Sometimes it hurts a film, sometimes it doesn’t. It’s an all-star cast, and Nolan makes great movies. It’s hard to bet against it. Hopefully, it can rise above the online chatter.

Mathews: I’m not making predictions, but Nolan’s films are celebrated. It might not hit the same stratosphere as some of his biggest hits, but with the Barbenheimer phenomenon— I wonder if Oppenheimer would have done as well without it. It’s a big moment, and it’ll influence how people spend their entertainment dollars.

Holden: The Odyssey is squeezed into a packed July schedule— Minions and Monsters for the Fourth of July, Moana live-action a week before, then The Odyssey on the 17th, with two weeks before Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Competition will be stiff.

Reynolds: Got it. Let’s take a quick break. Anything else you want to mention that we haven’t covered?

Mathews: A quick note— more about the fall. Greta Gerwig’s Narnia movie, made for Netflix, will now get a wide theatrical release. It was scheduled for streaming this fall but has been bumped to early next year. That reflects the industry’s current momentum— studios wanting their movies in theaters, perhaps as a way to boost their cultural relevance and box office impact. It’s about making a splash and creating memorable experiences on the big screen.

Reynolds: Wade, does that shared theater experience— the water cooler talk— help overall box office? Last summer, the industry hit just under $4 billion. Do you think this summer will surpass that?

Holden: I believe so. Preliminary numbers show about a 14.8% increase in weekly box office, with around $606 million in just the first three weeks. That’s up nearly 30% from last year’s start, which was weaker. With Toy Story 5, Minions, Moana, two superhero movies, a Nolan film— I think $4 billion is very achievable this summer. It’s much needed, and it’s exciting to see the industry rebound and share these experiences.

Reynolds: Mac, are you confident we’ll hit $4 billion?

Mathews: With all these big movies, I think $4 billion is reasonable. Many could make close to a billion each if they perform well. Even if some fall short, they’ll still bring in hundreds of millions. The sheer number of potential hits makes $4 billion very possible.

Holden: I predict that my wife and I’s tickets for Mutiny on August 21st will be the ones to push us over $4 billion this summer.

Reynolds: A little specific, Wade— thank you. We’ll end on that note. Thanks to both of you for joining us. It’s always fun to talk Hollywood on MediaTalk. Wade, Mac, I appreciate it very much.

Holden: My pleasure. Always fun.

Mathews: Thanks for having me.

Reynolds: This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks for listening. We’ll check back in September to see how things played out. In the meantime, get your popcorn ready and enjoy a flick or three. Maybe we’ll see you in theaters, and we’ll catch up on the next episode of MediaTalk.