MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 15 - Swing States, Broadcast Buys to Drive Record Political Ad Spending in 2026

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media, and telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global Market Intelligence, wherein the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. Today, we're going to talk about what many consider to be America's favorite sport: politics. 2026 is an even year — the midterm election cycle. Republicans control both congressional chambers. In the Senate, it's 53 for the Republicans and 47 for the Democrats, a total that includes two independents that side with the Dems. In the House, it's 218 to 213 for the GOP, with four vacant seats owing to resignations or death. I think there are 36 gubernatorial races up for bid this time. And all told, it means there should be a major rise in political ad spending in the months ahead. To help us make sense of this, “MediaTalk” is lucky to be joined by a pair of returning guests. Steve Passwaiter is a veteran political analyst and currently the president of Silver Oak Political, a Washington, D.C., political advisory firm that assists organizations interested in introducing services or improving their position in the political ad sector. Steve previously served as VP of growth and strategy and senior advisor to CMAG at both Vivvix and Kantar Media, where he successfully nurtured bipartisan relationships across the political aisle. Welcome, Steve.

Steve Passwaiter: Thanks, Mike. Good to be here.

Reynolds: Peter Leitzinger is a research analyst with Kagan. He keeps tabs on a lot of things in the broadcast realm, including political advertising. He's been with us before and talked about category ad spending throughout the 2024 presidential election cycle. Peter, thanks for joining us again.

Peter Leitzinger: Thanks for having me.

Reynolds: Alright, guys, let's get started here. In 2026, it would seem that the US is a country divided. There are those who favor President Trump; others don't necessarily share that view. Grocery and gas prices are higher, the latter tied in part to our still unresolved conflict in Iran. Steve, how do you view this midterm cycle?

Passwaiter: It's going to be another nail-biter right down to the end, Mike. I don't see any way around that. The country, as you alluded to moments ago, is very closely divided, and it is in that division that we see this increased, almost frenetic activity happening with political advertising.

Reynolds: Peter, your thoughts on where we stand?

Leitzinger: Yeah, I think that the climate is about as hot as it gets right now, with issues such as immigration rights, economic uncertainty, inflation, and mixed opinions on the conflict in Iran. And those topics are blanketing the national and local news, and that makes control of Congress and our leaders — even at the local level — so important going into the election year.

Reynolds: Alright. Before we take a look at some of the key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races, let's talk fundraising. This is largely the province of digital media. Steve, has a lot of money been raised?

Passwaiter: There has been, there is, and there will be a lot of money raised there. There has been some chatter about donor fatigue, but that's mostly at the lower end. And there are so many ways for people to participate in the electoral money game, both in the light and in the dark. Most notably. But I think when you look at it, Mike, if we're going to hit the numbers that are being projected, it means for both '25 and '26, there's going to be somewhere between $18 billion and maybe $20 billion raised.

Reynolds: Really? Wow. Okay. Okay.

Passwaiter: Yeah. There's an old formula that says about 55 cents to 60 cents of every dollar raised goes into some form of advertising. And if you look at the projections that are out there today and take it over ‘25 and ‘26, that's the kind of money we're looking at flowing into the political game.

Leitzinger: That's a lot of money. I agree. We're seeing records in fundraising each and every year in this non-presidential election. I expect the same.

Reynolds: Alright. Linear, particularly local broadcast TV stations, have been the medium of choice for politicians and campaigns for decades. Peter, what are you and Kagan projecting for political ad revenues this time around for this sector?

Leitzinger: For 2026, we're predicting a little over $4 billion in political for local TV. That's an increase of about 15% from the election year of 2022. We predict it to become over 16% of the total broadcast revenue for this year. So each of those numbers is a record for a non-presidential election year.

Reynolds: Steve, what about Silver Oak? You feel the same way?

Passwaiter: I do. I think the $4 billion number is solid, and that's consistent with what I've seen projected across the spectrum for this year. And I think the big change here, Mike, is that that's a big number, but it is now a plurality, not a majority, of political ad spending.

Reynolds: CTV — connected TV. That's been a factor, Steve, for at least two, maybe three political cycles, and more to come there.

Passwaiter: Most certainly. This is the new prom queen here in Washington, D.C. political circles. Connected television has grown, and it is growing at a pretty enormous pace, but people shouldn't believe that all of the money that is going into connected television is coming out of linear TV budgets. Certainly there is some impact there, but maybe not as much as people think there is.

Reynolds: Okay, Peter, connected TV is growing, as Steve alluded to, with cord cutting and the shrinking pay TV universe. Connected provides incremental reach among other things, right?

Leitzinger: Yeah, definitely. With political going in the way of CTV, yeah, it's definitely one of the largest areas of growth in terms of political advertising with the subscriber shifts and because of the advanced targeting that CTV provides as well. But Steve's right — broadcasters have digital assets of their own; they're definitely going to benefit in that regard as well.

Reynolds: Alright. On the surface, guys, control of the House and Senate appears up for grabs. As is the case every even year, all 435 House seats are contested. Sounds like a massive number, but any sense, Steve, for how many seats are really in contention this time around? And whatever the number is, is that atypical or typical for where we usually stand every other year?

Passwaiter: No, I think the number that we're seeing this time around is pretty consistent with where it has been. By the time you throw in all the leanings and the likes and things, there are probably somewhere between 50 and 60 seats that you would deem to be competitive. True toss-up seats are a relatively small fraction of that. There really aren't that many of them anymore. And the current shift in redistricting that has become a rather unwelcome fad around the country is also maybe contributing to the fact that there really aren't that many seats that are competitive anymore.

Reynolds: Peter, is Kagan handicapping the House the same way or similarly?

Leitzinger: Yeah, we look at the toss-up states, and we have about 16. The Democrats need just three extra seats to secure the majority. Some of those competitive races that we see are taking place in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, California, and Arizona, just to name a few.

Reynolds: Okay. Alright. And again, as we get closer and things happen, I would assume that dollars from the parties themselves will go where they see the chances of the greatest, or they need a little boost, right?

Passwaiter: Most assuredly. Peter's number is about where all of the other prognosticators are. If you look at Inside Elections or you look at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and the guy that I think knows the House better than nearly anybody else — Dave Wasserman at the Cook Political Report — they're all in that same general range. And there's a couple of seats that I think are interesting, where you've got ex-military members of Congress that are retiring in two of the swing-iest of the swing seats. One is the second district of Maine, which has been represented by Jared Golden, who's a former Marine. That's a district that has voted for President Trump three times. Then you've got Don Bacon, who represents Nebraska's second district. Both of these districts, by the way, have their own electoral votes because of the way Maine and Nebraska —

Reynolds: Right?

Passwaiter:  — do things. Bacon is now retiring, and he is a former Air Force general in a district that voted for Biden and Kamala Harris. He's a Republican. It's interesting that all the prognosticators are looking at Nebraska Two as a Democratic pickup, and they're looking at Maine Two as a Republican pickup. We'll have to see if that comes true or not.

Reynolds: Alright. Okay. A lot of places to keep our eyes on. Peter, let's shift over to the Senate. What's your sense there as to what's going to go on? And again, 35 up for grabs, but how many are really up for grabs?

Leitzinger: Yeah, we're seeing maybe a little bit fewer than years past, with four seats out of the 35 that are up for reelection considered toss-ups. But that just places even more importance on the consolidation of advertising on those four races, which we have marked as Maine, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina. Both Georgia and Michigan also have competitive governor races, so in those states we see just a ton of spending.

Reynolds: Yeah. Steve, you were talking before — there's going to be an incredible amount of spending, and particularly in three states in your view.

Passwaiter: North Carolina is always a barn burner when it comes to spend. And with that being an open seat and North Carolina having a little bit more of a purple hue to it, and given the number of markets in that state, it's, I think, in my opinion, easily a half-billion-dollar race by the time it's over. Okay. I think you could say the same thing about Georgia, and given the primary situation in Texas between Cornyn and Paxton, you could probably see that one crawl over that threshold too. And even Maine — I remember 2020 very well when Susan Collins was running for reelection the last time, and in 2020 there was over $150 million spent in the state of Maine. It would've been just cheaper to give everybody a check for a thousand bucks and call it a day.

Reynolds: Okay. Maybe some of Maine's residents would've preferred that.

Passwaiter: Yeah, they probably would've.

Reynolds: Peter, how about the gubernatorial houses? I think 36 of the 50 are in contention.

Leitzinger: Yeah, that's right. There are 19 states where the incumbent governor is running for reelection, 15 states where the governor is term-limited, and two where the governor is eligible for reelection but has opted to retire instead. We have open seats in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and we think they're going to draw ad dollars to TV and CTV in those states. In Wisconsin, Governor Tim Walz announced he's not seeking reelection. The primary there isn't until August, and I expect a heavy dose of political advertising in that state as well.

Reynolds: But Peter, you live out in California. It seems incredibly busy in the number of candidates.

Leitzinger: Yeah, the California race is certainly a hotspot. We've seen Tom Steyer, who's a billionaire, starting his candidacy really early and heavy with his advertising. He spent, through the end of February, $66.7 million on his campaign already, so outspending almost all the other candidates combined. And as of March, we've got still 10 candidates with no front runners. So the ad spending here is going to be hard and heavy, especially since California commands such a high premium for their CPMs. And that should just elevate the political totals here in California.

Reynolds: Steve, I take it you share similar views about activity in the Golden State and some of the other proceedings, but are there a couple of other races that you're keeping your eyes on?

Passwaiter: California's certainly got a lot more interesting over the last 24 hours with Swalwell's departure from the race.

Reynolds: Okay.

Passwaiter: And potentially his expulsion from Congress too. And I think the big question for California is, where does Swalwell's support go? Does it go to Steyer? Are people tired of seeing Tom Steyer on their TV every 30 seconds? Maybe they are. Because he spent, according to the latest numbers from AdImpact, over a hundred million bucks. Also, I think the Georgia governor's race has an interesting angle to it, given that Brian Kemp is stepping out and is term-limited. That one, in addition to that Senate race, means that it's just not going to be safe to step inside the borders of Georgia and turn on any video screen. It's going to be a — get ready for it. I think the crush is coming for those who live in the Peach State. And also, I agree with the Michigan angle, with Gretchen Whitmer stepping away, and given how close Michigan has become in the last several years — look at the presidential races, look at how narrowly Alyssa Slotkin won that Senate race a couple of years ago. Michigan is always a fascinating take, and these races that get won don't get won by a whole lot. So I would also expect Michigan's governor's race is going to get a lot of attention in addition to that Senate race. And there are a couple of House seats in Michigan that are always leaning into that swing angle.

Reynolds: Alright. Alright, guys, as we get toward the end here, I wanted to finish up with a look at the broadcast station groups. Peter, which of the big players are best positioned for this election cycle?

Leitzinger: Yeah, so when we look at the number of full-power, big four TV stations that are owned by TV station groups, Sinclair Broadcast Group has the most in those toss-up states with 26, and both Nexstar and Gray Media are really close behind with 23. However, we know that the merger with Nexstar and TEGNA would change all that, given that it goes through.

Reynolds: I gotcha. Steve, what about the owned and operated stations from the major networks — with Paramount Skydance, with CBS, NBCU and NBC, and Fox? How do they — I would assume as they focus more and more attention, both nationally and locally, they're expecting big returns as well from the ad front.

Passwaiter: They certainly are, and you can't forget that most of these — the O&O groups and particularly the network O&Os — do also have a CTV angle to all of them. And they will be aggressively selling that the same way that the traditional cable folks do much the same. Ampersand has a very robust CTV component to what they sell in addition to the linear piece. And these network groups all have that same ability to do that as well.

Reynolds: Alright, Peter, you alluded to this a moment ago. The Nexstar/TEGNA, a $6.2 billion merger, was announced last August. On March 19th, it got approved by the FCC and the DOJ. The same day, DirecTV and, I think, attorney generals from eight states all filed antitrust suits. A federal judge out in California has twice, including last Friday, I guess, issued a temporary restraining order, going against this, maybe holding it up. Your sense, sir, if TEGNA and Nexstar get together, they're at the top of the class, right?

Leitzinger: Yeah. I think that it will go through. I don't know if DirecTV will be able to show that there's anything malicious going on with this merger. We've seen plenty of mergers in broadcast over the last few years, and in terms of political — in 2024, the two companies combined made close to $1 billion in political advertising. So that's close to about 25% of the total allocated to broadcast. The combined company's influence would be just enormous.

Reynolds: Steve, you think it's going to go through? And again, that just sounds like they'll be the belle of the ball when it comes to getting those political dollars.

Passwaiter: If memory serves me correctly — and the older I get, sometimes it doesn't — I seem to recall that TEGNA's biggest market is Atlanta, is it not? And last time I checked, I think there's going to be a lot of stuff going on in the Atlanta market this year. There may be a lot of flights from DFW to Atlanta in the next few months, 'cause you know that it's kinda wahoo. Here we go.

Reynolds: Alright. Very good. That concludes this episode of “MediaTalk." I want to thank Steve Passwaiter, president of Silver Oak, for joining us today. Steve is also going to be on an ad panel during the Kagan Telecom Summit in New York on June 9th. Steve, we appreciate you being here.

Passwaiter: Thanks for giving everybody ample warning, Mike. I appreciate it.

Reynolds: Alright, and you can check out Peter's latest story on the political ad realm on our Cap IQ Pro site. Peter, we appreciate you being here today.

Leitzinger: Thank you so much.

Reynolds: This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. We'll catch up on the next episode of “MediaTalk.” Bye, everybody.