MediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 1 - Consolidation and Competition: 2026’s Key Shifts in Sports, Cable, and Broadcast Media

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media, and telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global, wherein the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. "MediaTalk" has been on a bit of a short hiatus, but we're hoping everybody's 2026 is off to a good start today. "MediaTalk" is going to offer a preview of some of the biggest stories that will unfold or look likely to reach some resolution in 2026, many of which had their roots in 2025.

A quartet of Kagan analysts are in the house to discuss and assess. We have Michael Johnson, who's an analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan and is on the US Sports Watch. Scott Robson, principal analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan, has long tracked US networks and sports. JP O'Sullivan covers the media and telecom sector with emphasis on company performance, M&A, and international sports rights from S&P Global's UK office. And Justin Nielson, head of Kagan Research, is going to talk broadcast TV with us today.

Hey guys, thanks for joining. Going to start with Mike/MJ. I hope it was a nice holiday for you and the family.

Michael Johnson: Hey Mike. Absolutely, great time off with the kids over the last couple of weeks. Excited to get back into the school routine. That was a long two weeks with the kids at home.

Reynolds: [Laughs] Okay, alright. A lot of big rights stories in the sports world in 2025 — an 11-year rights play with the NBA. Disney/ESPN retained the "A" package. NBC Sports is back in the NBA nationally for the first time since 2002. And Prime Video is on the court. Early takes, Mike?

Johnson: Yeah, absolutely. So 2025 was a huge year for the NBA, with games shifting to NBC/Peacock and Amazon, alongside ABC and ESPN, like you mentioned. By all accounts, broadcasts have had solid reviews with viewers so far. The league had its highest opening month in viewership in 15 years, with over, I think, 60 million people in the US having watched games across the networks and streamers during that first month. I personally have been a big fan of Ian Eagle, Stan Van Gundy on Amazon Prime right to start the year. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver seemed pleased with Amazon's coverage so far as well, with their in-depth studio chemistry contrasting with the other networks.

Everything's been going great so far, though not everything has been perfect, including fans now having to pony up $130 a month to watch all NBA games. But, you know, we all knew that going into this season.

Reynolds: Alright. Last year also brought a lot of new rights deals that we're going to start to see this year. Apple was pretty busy, right?

Johnson: Yeah, absolutely. 2025 saw big changes with new media rights deals for both Formula One and MLS on Apple TV. They ended exclusive US rights for Formula One in a $700 million deal, moving races off of cable onto the streaming platform through 2030. At the same time, the MLS reworked its deal with Apple, now ending in 2029 and making all matches part of their main Apple TV subscription starting next season. So it should be easier for fans to watch and could really boost viewership, especially with the World Cup coming to North America this summer.

Reynolds: Sure, it makes a lot of sense. And UFC fans — they're going to have to switch their viewership as well, right?

Johnson: Yeah, definitely. The media rights landed with Paramount in an exclusive seven-year deal worth $7.7 billion. It was a big shift away from the old pay-per-view model, and now all UFC events will be available to Paramount+ subscribers at no extra cost. So, it means a significant pay bump for UFC compared to its previous ESPN contract. But it's also a pretty smart move by Paramount to attract a younger, more diverse viewership and grow its streaming audience as well.

Reynolds: It's interesting —before, you had to pay for their top events. Now, this is all part and parcel. I would imagine they hope a lot of the fans are going to shift over and become Paramount+ subscribers.

The other thing, Mike, you and I were at a conference in September. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred talked about deals in place with NBC, Netflix, and ESPN, and imagine that—we were there, it actually came to pass. Could you talk about baseball's new lineup for next year?

Johnson: So, yes, some notable changes are coming to MLB's national media lineup in 2026. Like you mentioned, ESPN, NBC Sports, and Netflix are joining Fox Sports and TNT with new deals totaling around $800 million a year for the next couple of years. ESPN will now integrate MLB TV into its app, plus get in-market streaming rights for six teams: the Diamondbacks, Guardians, Padres, Rockies, Twins, and Mariners. NBC is making a comeback to baseball,

bringing, I think, 25 Sunday night games to both TV and Peacock streaming. That'll add to their strong Sunday night sports lineup throughout the year. Netflix is getting into the mix too—they're picking up the season opener, the Field of Dreams Game, and also the Home Run Derby. So these deals really expand the reach, making games more accessible, and this is all part of setting the stage for even bigger negotiations down the line in 2028.

Reynolds: Yep, that's right. That's the idea. They'll have everything in place. We'll keep our eye on that in the next few years as well. In the meantime, the US's biggest sports property, the NFL, may or may not be revisiting rights deals this year. Mike, what do you think?

Johnson: Yeah, there's a lot of buzz surrounding the NFL possibly revisiting these media rights deals soon, even though the current contracts don't expire until the end of this decade. They might be looking to renegotiate early to keep up with this growing, robust market. Commissioner Goodell, I think, has hinted that both the league and its partners are open to new deals, especially as streaming platforms get into the mix, with Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube becoming bigger players. International expansion is also a huge focus, with games already scheduled in Munich, London, Melbourne, and Rio de Janeiro in 2026. So, a potentially lucrative package solely dedicated to the international games could be a big focus in these upcoming deals. While most NFL games will stay on broadcast TV, we'll probably see these streaming platforms play an even bigger role moving forward in these potential renegotiations.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Alright, winding down here with you, Mike. WNBA—collective bargaining agreement's been pushed around a little bit. Latest supposed to expire on January 9th. Are they going to get a deal done? The Women's Basketball League...

Johnson: Yeah, we'll see. They're at a real crossroads right now in negotiations between the league and the Players Association. There's been some major disagreements over revenue sharing and salary cap figures. I believe players reportedly want a bigger cut; the league says that could lead to bigger losses. So, we'll see what comes of that. On top of all these negotiations, you have new leagues like Unrivaled, which debuted its second season on January 5th, putting a bit of pressure on the WNBA by offering more opportunities with their fast-growing networks. If the league and the players can't reach a deal soon, there's talk of a strike. With the league's popularity rising and more fans tuning in in recent years, getting this new deal done is crucial for keeping that momentum going in the future.

Reynolds: Alright, I'm switching over to you, Scott. Scott, how are we doing? How were the holidays in Texas this year?

Scott Robson: Hey, I'm doing well, Mike. Thanks for having me.

Reynolds: Alright, let's go to the regional sports network business, Scott. Main Street Sports, a successor company to Diamond, which came out of a 21-month bankruptcy proceeding, seems to be in financial trouble again and could dissolve. DAZN may be a white knight of sorts. There's a lot of back and forth about missed rights fee payments, and maybe more on the way for the NBA clubs. Your thoughts about this, and again, is the RSN business about to go away?

Robson: Yeah, that's the $6 billion question. The RSN industry is certainly past its heyday, having been declining since about 2019. But I think there are some forces at play that can serve as a catalyst for more substantial change to the industry in 2026 and beyond. First, let's talk about the troubles at Main Street Sports. I think that's going to dictate how the industry operates in the near term. Obviously, these misrights payments aren't a good sign. The NBA is focused on launching a national streaming RSN that would aggregate local rights, potentially slated for the 2027-28 season. That has big implications there. MLB has been taking on rights and launching team-specific channels, so we could see more of that in 2026 and beyond. There are teams with lucrative RSN media rights deals that are going to try and maintain that revenue stream for as long as possible—teams like the Yankees. But I do think a major shift is on the horizon, and whatever happens here with Main Street Sports will definitely dictate how that operates in the near term.

Reynolds: Yeah, I mean, we've followed that pretty closely over the last couple of years, and more to come, it would seem, in the weeks and months ahead. So we will see. Anyway, let's go back to last August, Scott. ESPN made a bid—they're going to buy NFL Network, the linear rights to NFL RedZone and the NFL's fantasy business in exchange for 10% of Disney Sports programmer. Regulatory approvals are needed, but this is something that has been going on for years and finally happened. What do you make of it?

Robson: Yeah, so this is something that's been talked about for at least five or so years now. I think the deal could close by the start of the upcoming football season in the fall of 2026. I think it's beneficial for both parties, as the NFL programming will definitely help sweeten ESPN's streaming service. And then the league will also get some reprieve from operating NFL Media, which is an expensive endeavor, and is, as we all know, a declining asset. The NFL is the

most popular thing on TV, so ESPN is aligning itself for the long term here. I think it's a good move for them.

Reynolds: Do you think, again, if and when this goes through—and it probably will go through—does this open the door for ESPN maybe working with NBA or MLB in a similar way?

Robson: Yeah, there were talks between ESPN and the NBA and MLB in 2023 before this NFL deal was announced. Now that the NFL deal is in focus, I'm not sure ESPN is still looking to give up more equity. With MLB, ESPN's got a new multifaceted agreement set for next season, and then the NBA deal is in place. So I don't expect ESPN to make another deal like the one with the NFL anytime soon, but they still will be working, obviously, closely with those leagues.

Reynolds: Okay, alright, we're going to go back again to last August. ESPN Unlimited, the DTC service that has all their games, all their studio programming, customizable fantasy action, customizable SportsCenter. At the same time, Fox entered the aggregate streaming business for the first time with all of Fox Sports, entertainment, and news programming. You and I have talked about this in the past—a big deal, but might have been bigger had it happened a few years earlier.

Robson: Yes, I think that 10 years ago, the launch of these services would have been more significant. Both of these companies, Disney and Fox, have been very interested in keeping the traditional bundle alive. I think the launch of these two products signifies that's become less of a focus for these companies as they think about the future. The ESPN Unlimited service isn't necessarily a cord-cutter accelerant at this stage of the game because it's available to many existing paid TV subscribers. It was a major part of the carriage dispute with YouTube TV last fall, and I think it's priced at a point where consumers won't really be saving on their bills by making the switch. There are so many video options to choose from these days. Sure, cobbling together FOX One, ESPN Unlimited, and other streaming services might be a good option for some, but I think there will still be folks out there who want something more simplified and will still see traditional pay TV packages as a more appealing option.

Reynolds: I gotcha. Cable industry continues to shed subscribers, affiliate fees, and ad revenue. Overall, Scott, where does the business stand going into 2026?

Robson: The industry is in a state of decline, but it's still generating profits, and there's still around 68 million subscribers paying for these networks. So the business is still viable. There was even an uptick in paid subscribers in Q3 2025

for the first time in years, which is a positive sign for the industry. I don't believe that's a real trend reversal—Q3 tends to be strong given the timing of the start of the football seasons. But 2026 is going to be a pivotal year. I think we're entering a new era, highlighted by these spinoffs—Versant at Comcast and Warner Bros. Discovery. I think Versant has a good mix of networks: sports, news, general entertainment. These assets, though, are all declining in revenues and profits, but there are still viable businesses. So I think Versant will be able to stand on its own for a few years. It's not the most attractive company in the media space in terms of growth potential, but I think it will find its place in the ecosystem. Now, that being said, the stock is down since going live on Monday. So it's going to be a good test in determining the investment appetite for the cable network industry.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Warner Bros. Discovery, its acquisition situation notwithstanding, they plan to do a similar thing. They're going to spin off their global networks, their cable and broadcast and linear holdings — I think it's supposed to happen now in August. What do you think about this one, Scott?

Robson: Yeah, similar story here with Warner Bros. Discovery. I think the Discovery Global stock might not be very attractive to investors, but the core assets have the potential to remain profitable in the near term and allow investors to make a targeted play at the space. This could be a melting ice cube situation, though, as I don't think the linear networks are poised for a major comeback here, rather a slower decline as the industry continues its transition to streaming.

Reynolds: And it's interesting too, because in terms of Netflix, which wants to buy Warner Brothers studio business and its streaming assets—notably HBO Max—they don't want any part of the cable networks. Meanwhile, Paramount-Skydance wants the whole shebang. What would happen then if Paramount wound up with Warner Brothers cable networks? That's a gigantic asset base.

Robson: Yeah, obviously the future is still unknown here, but it looks like the Warner Bros. Discovery board prefers the Netflix bid over the Paramount-Skydance bid. So the split seems likely to happen. Either deal is going to face regulatory scrutiny, but it seems like the Netflix deal could be cleaner. I think the Paramount deal could be more beneficial for the cable network assets, though. Paramount already owns nearly 30 basic cable networks in the US, so to tie up with the 30 or so Warner Bros. Discovery US cable networks could create some significant cost synergies that would help with profit margins.

Reynolds: Scott, what else are you keeping a close eye on for 2026?

Robson: Yes, one of the things I'm focused on in 2026 is the emergence of these genre-specific packages that YouTube has announced—YouTube TV—and have already been rolled out by DirecTV and others. I think they're going to provide consumers with even more options and potentially cheaper options, which could buoy some of the subscriber declines at these cable networks. So I think that's an important thing to watch in 2026—how consumers react to these genre-specific packages and true skinny bundles as they get across the market.

Reynolds: Alright, we're moving on to JP O'Sullivan. How were the holidays in the UK, sir?

JP O'Sullivan: Yeah, very well, thank you, Mike. It's particularly cold here at the moment in the UK, but yeah, strong start to the year.

Reynolds: Okay, alright. What happens in Europe if Warner Bros. Discovery winds up with Netflix? Or conversely, if it winds up in the hands of Paramount-Skydance?

O'Sullivan: One of the strengths of the current Netflix proposition is that its pricing is straightforward for the consumer—i.e., you get all the content, even if you take the basic ad tier or you are a premium user in 4K, etc. Integrating the newly acquired content would likely push up prices, or we would see the introduction of content tiers, so possibly an extra level of complexity for European consumers. Foresight on a Paramount deal is a bit more unclear because it seeks to acquire both networks and streaming. But the key thing here is a reduction in competition—three global streaming services will become two. So whoever is successful, this could benefit local groups.

Reynolds: We don't know how that's going to unfold, at least as of this recording. Anyway, 2025, JP, was a very busy year in terms of European media consolidation. Can you give us kind of an overview of sorts?

O'Sullivan: Yeah, Europe continued to look inwards and pursue regional mergers with what were former competitors, the goal being scale, securing key programming, and really just to operate more objectively to guard against the global competition that is out there from the streamers. Regulators now seem to be more open to these types of changes. Historically, a dominant position in local TV advertising meant strong control of the overall local ad market. That's no longer the case because digital search and display is so large. Also, in the subscription business, global streamers do have the edge on some local pay TV providers.

Reynolds: Interesting. Across the pond here, we're again going through our own kind of consolidation period, as we've discussed. So we will see how things track. Again, last year there were a couple of the bigger deals. Could you discuss a couple for us, JP?

O'Sullivan: Yeah, certainly. There was a big deal in Australia with DAZN acquiring Foxtel for an enterprise value of 3.4 billion Australian dollars. Sports rights over there had been very fragmented in what was a crowded market, so consequently, DAZN and Fox teamed up. Stan Sport, owned by Nine Entertainment, took over Optus, which still leaves Nine Network owned by Paramount, Seven Network, plus ABC, the public broadcaster—all of these are participants in local sports broadcasting.

Reynolds: What about RTL and Sky Deutschland?

O'Sullivan: Yes, this merger combines free and pay TV plus streaming, so a strong unified provider for German-speaking markets. Sky Deutschland is not as strong as its UK or Italian counterparts, being the likely reason for Comcast opting to sell. Okay, again, it would seem some of the reports you guys put out—a very busy year for MFE Media for Europe, NV.

O'Sullivan: Yeah, a landmark year for them. They now have majority control of ProSieben, which is Germany's number two group, alongside the two Mediaset market leaders in Italy and Spain. They're going down the pan-regional route, but focusing on local content and crucially avoiding a direct head-to-head with the global streamers. Another deal of interest is ITV and Sky UK. This one is yet to advance further than preliminary talks, but the same rationale as RTL and Sky Deutschland transaction. However, this time it's pay TV buying a broadcaster. There'll be regulatory scrutiny, but certainly this is the major transaction to look out for in the first half of the year in Europe.

Reynolds: I'm going to finish up here with you on something that bridges the end of the first half of the year and starts the second half of the year. It's a little football tournament in June and July. It's called the FIFA Men's World Cup. It's going to be hosted in the US, Mexico, and Canada. Here in North America, tickets are really expensive, but they seem to be well sold out. Your sense, JP? What's the sensibility for the tournament in the UK and abroad?

O'Sullivan: I think the key thing is it's a much longer tournament this time—a great commercial airtime opportunity. Some groups might even try and monetize these new three-minute rehydration breaks. That's right. In some form, that would be interesting. Kickoff times have been very favorable to most of the

major nations — England in particular, several 9:00 PM starts local time. Kickoff times also look good for Germany, right? So I think it's the same sort of story every four years. European nations do travel well, despite the high ticket prices that you mentioned. You'll see these mass TV audiences for the major games, certainly at the latter stages.

Reynolds: Alright, Justin, how are you? How were things in California for the holidays and 2026?

Justin Nielson: Doing well. Thanks, Mike, for having me.

Reynolds: Justin, your thoughts on Main Street Sports and the RSN industry? Over the last few years, there's been a back-to-the-future movement of sorts with local TV stations. In a few cases, it's full season rights; mostly, it's partials. Does that continue if Main Street finds support from DAZN, or if it goes the other way—if Main Street shuts down—is there still a place for local broadcast TV stations?

Nielson: I think there is, maybe to a lesser extent than a full season as we've seen in the past with some teams like the Jazz and the Suns. But I think there's definitely broadcaster involvement in some of these local rights deals with teams. We've seen this in terms of carve-outs with 10 or 15 game packages over the year to support the streaming initiatives in the local markets. I think that continues even under a league-owned streaming package. I think there is value in that, especially in extending the brand to the local, over-the-air audience. And then, it's good with the community, right? They usually do onsite events in the local community. The local stations are always involved in terms of the local sports announcers or color commentators and the like. So I think it continues, and from the broadcaster's perspective, it's been a nice win for them to be involved in some of these distribution agreements. I think that will continue.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Advertising-wise for the broadcast industry—mixed bag the last couple of years. This year, 2026, even years, we have the Olympics and the World Cups. So that's a better situation, right?

Nielson: Yes, it's all coming together in 2026 with the FIFA World Cup, the Winter Olympics in Italy, as well as a midterm political election cycle. You definitely see some affiliates in some owned and operated station groups probably doing better this year than others, especially those NBC and Telemundo affiliates and owned and operated stations that have the Winter Olympics, and then those Fox stations that have the World Cup. You'll definitely see pockets of outperformance in certain markets and with certain

operators and owners, but on the political side, you definitely look at those swing states and others where they're going to get outsized influence in terms of political campaign money. So it's going to be lumpy, let's put it that way. But overall, tide rises all boats. We're expecting it to be an outsized midterm election year—still not beating the last presidential election cycle, but still around $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion this year, which is a lot for targeting and focusing on their local voters and constituents. Local TV has still been the lion's share of political spending.

Reynolds: Alright. The Warner Bros. situation aside, the other big pending media deal, Justin, has Nexstar looking to acquire Tegna for $6.2 billion. The offer, I think, was made back in August, and it would fortify Nexstar's position as the largest station operator. Your thoughts on this deal?

Nielson: So, $22 per share for TEGNA. Looking at it from a value proposition, we pegged the value at about 7.6 times forward cash flow. That's within what we've seen in terms of prior deals. You include the synergies and everything, that lowers it down to about 6.4 times. From a perspective of reach, you've got over 250 stations for the combined entity, roughly about 72–73% of all US TV households. That would be far over the cap in terms of the 39%, no doubt. And then also, you look at the local markets—Nexstar and Tegna, there are a lot of overlaps in terms of markets for Big Four affiliates, so that also supersedes the duopoly rules in a lot of these markets. They would have to get waivers not only for the national ownership cap but also in some of those markets for the duopoly. I still feel like there's a lot of momentum in movement and political clout to get the deal done. It's just a matter of when it will be done. They still need to make some changes in terms of the current rules. Can the FCC approve it without an act of Congress? That's still an open question. It could be 18 months out before we see this deal actually close.

Reynolds: But again, Nexstar leader Perry Sook is confident, and you seem to be as well, that it eventually will happen.

Nielson: It seems like there's a lot of momentum. And the broadcasters in the NAB have said for the last few presidential election cycles that the current broadcast ownership regulations are outdated—they're stifling competition in the marketplace. The video marketplace not only includes broadcast stations but also cable operators and streamers. So we have to look at it from the whole marketplace perspective, not the local TV station market perspective, in their view.

Reynolds: The other big deal that was announced, and I guess has been met with some resistance — Sinclair's made a play to buy EW Scripps. Scripps' board adopted a poison pill and then rejected the offer. Yet the board says it's still open for deals to enhance shareholder value. Your thoughts about this one, Justin?

Nielson: This is a different tactic by Sinclair, in terms of a hostile bid—essentially buying a stake and then having a takeover bid. I still feel like there's going to be additional consolidation in the marketplace for TV stations. Now, will Sinclair try to make another bid, or could you see another group owner potentially come in and look at a merger? You've seen other station group owners be pretty acquisitive in terms of acquisitions, like Gray TV. And actually, with the Scripps deal, they already have a pending deal with Gray on a bunch of station swaps.

Reynolds: Yeah, that's what I figured. Gray—they're a big player too, so we'll be keeping our eyes on a lot of different fronts, I would assume. Justin, anything else you're keeping a watchful eye on in 2026? Yeah, just looking at the distribution fee or retrans fee marketplace.

Nielson: We came to an inflection point in Q4 where we saw year-over-year retrans revenue drop for the publicly traded TV station group owners. It had been a consistent, strong growth driver for TV station owners. We've seen, from the perspective of distribution fees, a switch in terms of traditional versus virtual subscriber fees. And with the virtual subscriber fees, that is negotiated at the network level as opposed to the station level for traditional, which is cable, satellite, and telco video. So there has been a lot of movement and lobbying at the FCC in terms of allowing TV station owners to negotiate directly with virtual multichannel providers like YouTube TV and others. And as you probably remember, there were a lot of disputes that happened during the beginning of the NFL season and college football season with YouTube TV and some of the distributors, in terms of Disney and others. There's definitely some consumer backlash in terms of the ability to watch their games on local stations. From the station's perspective, they would just like to have a little bit more control over how their station or channels are distributed.

Reynolds: Plenty to keep an eye on this year. That concludes this episode of "MediaTalk." Just wanted to say thanks to our Kagan Fab Four for taking the time to share your thoughts about some of the key areas that will shape the media industry in 2026 and beyond. Thanks, guys. This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. We'll catch up soon on the next edition of "MediaTalk."