MediaTalk | Season 3 | Ep. 35 - Playoffs, Payouts, and Pre-Game Rivalries: The '25/'26 College Football Forecast

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with S&P Global Market Intelligence's tech, media, and telecom news team. Welcome to “MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global where the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. Today, I'm joined by a trio of S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan analysts: head analyst Justin Nielson, who specializes in broadcast among many other things; Principal Analyst Scott Robson, who tracks U.S. TV networks and sports; and Research Analyst Michael Johnson, who's now in his sophomore year here on the U.S. Sports Watch. Today, we're going to talk about the '25/'26 college football season. There are some changes, including revamping, or it will be the second season of the expanded CFP playoffs. Justin, Week Zero is behind us, and we're ready to kick things off for real. You ready?

Justin Nielson: Yes, I'm definitely ready for football, especially college. I would say there are some changes afoot in terms of what could happen in future playoff scenarios, and we'll touch on that. But yeah, excited for the season.

Mike Reynolds: Alright, Mike, I know this is probably a riff on Monday Night Football lyrics from days of yore, but are you ready for some college football?

Michael Johnson: Yeah. Hey Mike. Yeah, thanks for having me on the podcast. I'm definitely ready. The last few weeks have been fun with more college football playoff debates and preseason media days. I'm excited to get the games rolling finally.

Mike Reynolds: Alright, Scott, you live in Austin, Texas, home to the number one ranked Longhorns and Arch Manning, nephew of Peyton and Eli. They're playing defending champion Ohio State in Columbus in the Horseshoe on Fox on August 30th. Exciting way to kick off the season, right?

Scott Robson: Yeah, the season really starts off with a bang this year with a rematch of last year's semi-final. I think there's a lot of pressure on Arch Manning and the Longhorns to get back to the playoffs this year. The one seed definitely places a target on them. I'll tell you what, whoever loses that game will instantly be in a hole and has the potential to really hurt the team right off the bat. Very exciting.

Mike Reynolds: Alright, Dave Portnoy will now be part of the “Big Noon Kickoff” squad. The final game for Lee Corso is also on the agenda. I don't know, Pat McAfee or Nick Saban, are they ready to start donning the headgear mascots? Mike, your take on the battle of the pre-game shows.

Michael Johnson: Yeah, so it seems like we have a bit of a rivalry building between “College GameDay” and “Big Noon Kickoff.” Dave Portnoy, like you mentioned, is going to be joining the “Big Noon” team. It'll be interesting to get the response from his pro-Michigan takes. But yeah, last year “College GameDay” set a record. I think it was 2.2 million viewers on average. It seems like both networks are really going all out to claim that top spot among the pregame shows. Plus, we have the ACC Network getting in on the action too with their “ACC Huddle.” I think they're going to be broadcasting from the different campuses of the biggest games of the week. And then we have “SEC Nation” and “Big Ten Tailgate.” So there's going to be a lot of different options. But I'm going with Pat McAfee to rock the mascot heads. He seems a little bit better suited for the role.

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Alright. Before we dig further into the upcoming campaign, let's review last year, big conference realignment with the Big Ten and SEC and the expanded CFP. Scott, give us a sense of last year's playoff and viewership, if you will.

Scott Robson: Yeah, I think the extended playoff was well-received last year with the first-round games averaging over 10 million viewers across ESPN and TNT Sports, and then the latter rounds brought in around 20 million viewers. It's a bit of a mixed bag though, as viewership for the two semi-final games was down 17% compared to the prior year. I don't know if that speaks to the scarcity effect or just general interest in the matchups. If you look at it overall, the championship game brought in 22.1 million viewers and was the most-watched non-NFL sporting event of the year. A lot of interest there.

Mike Reynolds: Sure. Justin, your alma mater, the Arizona State Sun Devils, were in the CFP last year. They made a run. Changes are afoot with how the playoffs are going to be seeded from last season this time around.

Justin Nielson: Yes. So no automatic bids for the top four for the big four conferences this year. So it's going to be the top four decided by committee. So it would make a change this year if Arizona State potentially wins the Big 12 again, they would have to be upwards in the rankings in terms of getting a top-four spot. It is definitely something. You know that we're going to have some human element in terms of the conversation about who the top four is, and there could be two in the same conference. But you're going to get the loudest noise, I guess you would say, from the Big Ten and SEC folks.

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Some big news guys back in June, the NCAA and the house settlement. I want all three of you guys to weigh in here. Scott, can you start us off on this landmark decision?

Scott Robson: Sure. Yeah. So it was a big win for the players. In June, 2.8 billion was awarded to provide former and current D1 athletes who were restricted from NIL. Now these schools can pay athletes a share of revenues up to 20.5 million. I think it's really turning college sports into pro sports in a way. And I think these media rights deals are the driving force behind that change. I know there's some concerns that this will have a negative impact on competition, and we might see a lot more player transfers as they seek the most lucrative deals. NCAA has a commission in place to monitor payments, so hopefully, it doesn't get out of hand. I don't know if you guys saw that Notre Dame now has released different logos for different sports, but I think that move was made to increase merch revenue and we might see more of this as colleges become just increasingly revenue-focused following the settlement.

Mike Reynolds: Mike, your take on this again. That's an interesting point, Scott. So again, bigger and bigger business and perhaps more pro than ever before.

Michael Johnson: Yeah. Wow. The settlement back in June, it was a big-time game changer. Like Scott mentioned, D1 athletic departments can now pay student-athletes. With this new revenue-sharing era, it's huge. Like Scott mentioned, we're talking about 2.8 billion in damages for players who weren't allowed to collect the NIL deals before. And then the schools can also dish out up to $20.5 million to current athletes. And I think that number is going to continue to go up over the next decade. It will be interesting to see how this kind of shakes out. Especially since the football programs, I think they're expected to snag about 75% of those revenue-sharing funds. Men's and women's basketball will get a big chunk too, while other sports might not see as much. But you're seeing a lot of schools already making moves and looking into private equity investments for this shift.

Mike Reynolds: Justin, Mike talked about most of the dollars going to be funneled to football and then the basketball programs, but is it that kind of money at over $20 million? If someone wanted to take a different tack and maybe you can build a program from a very nascent stage into a major contender with some of the other college athletics.

Justin Nielson: I would think so. And especially in some of the Olympic sports, you're definitely seeing that in certain cases. With Texas Tech’s NiJaree Canady, the softball pitcher just got a $1 million NIL deal. I think there's going to be more of this, especially in swimming, gymnastics, those big Olympic sports that get a lot of viewership in the Summer and Winter Olympics. I definitely feel like there is potential for some of these schools to use that money in different ways. Especially the rise of women's sports. So you may see certain schools and different conferences really lean into that growth in popularity of women's sports.

Mike Reynolds: Yeah, it makes sense. More Livvy Dunns, perhaps. We'll see. Anyway, ESPN and Fox are the big players in college football. Mike, can you give a sense for where Paramount Skydance CBS Sports stands?

Michael Johnson: Yeah. Mike, you're spot on that ESPN and Fox Sports are the big players in college football right now. As per CBS, they've had to adjust quite a bit after losing the SEC rights, which were a huge part of their lineup. I believe the SEC's new 10-year deal with ESPN is worth around 3 billion, which was a massive change from the previous CBS contract. CBS is still making moves, especially with the Big Ten during that 3:30 p.m. Eastern window. Now in its third year, I think the Big Ten Media Rights Agreement with Fox, CBS, and NBC is valued at over 8 billion for seven years, which is the largest media rights deal in college conference history. But that's not it. CBS also secured a one-year media rights deal with the PAC 12 for this season. And it'll feature a mix of games that'll be broadcast on CBS. The CW, I think, will have the majority of those games, and then ESPN also. Yep. And then they also now have a longer-term deal as well with the PAC 12 that was recently announced. I think it runs through the 2030-2031 season, with estimates suggesting it could be between 10 million and 15 million annually. And then additionally, as well, CBS is also involved with the Mountain West, airing some of their games as part of their national package. So they're still finding ways to stay among the key players in the college football media rights game.

Mike Reynolds: Yeah, and there's a lot of games on CBS Sports Network too, so we'll see. Scott, Mike talked about the Big Ten and NBC. Can you give us a little sense of what they're up to there? And they also have Notre Dame and Peacock's in the mix too.

Scott Robson: Yeah. NBC has Big Ten primetime games throughout the regular season on Saturday nights. It works out to about 15 games per season. I think NBC just likes primetime football. They've got the NFL Sunday night game. I think this fits into their general strategy overall. Fox is the main Big Ten media rights partner, but NBC does have the Big Ten championship game in 2026. They're also eight games exclusive to Peacock. And then if you look at the Notre Dame deal, Notre Dame and NBC have a partnership that runs through 2029. NBC is paying about $50 million per year, and that's more than doubled over the previous contract. So I think the college football rights here definitely help make Peacock more appealing, which seems to be the primary focus for NBC, especially following the Versant spinoff.

Mike Reynolds: I gotcha. Justin, again, we just talked about Peacock, but the streamers, the Netflix, the Amazon Prime Video, or Apple, none of these guys as far as I know, have really entered the college football game realm. I don't know, is there any room for them? Could that happen? 'Cause I think the contracts are kinda locked up for a while.

Justin Nielson: Yeah, the contracts are locked up. And the other thing to focus in on is the regionality of some of these games. So you may see an opportunity for, like Netflix likes to do sports documentaries. You may see a focus on a specific team for college or an athlete. I just don't think they're going to get into the major college sports in terms of streaming live games.

Mike Reynolds: Yeah. That's more of a national approach, you would think, right?

Justin Nielson: Yeah.

Mike Reynolds: Okay. Other players here, TNT lost the NBA game rights after a 35-year run. It's been building up its portfolio with other sports: NASCAR, Unrivaled Women's three-on-three basketball, Roland Garros, French Open Tennis. They've got MLB and NHL. They've also bolstered their position in college football. Mike, can you get us up to speed on what TNT's up to?

Michael Johnson: Yeah, TNT, they're definitely making some interesting moves like you mentioned. They're back in college football after taking a long break with the sport. They started showing that ESPN-produced college football playoff broadcasts last year with Penn State over SMU and Texas over Clemson, I believe, in the first round. And it sounds like they're happy with how that went. They reportedly struck a deal to sublicense one more semi-final game from 2026 to 2028. And that means, TNT will now have nearly half of the CFP broadcast, including a couple of first-round games, two-quarter final games, starting this year based on how the CFP is currently structured.

Mike Reynolds: Sure. Which we'll get to that a little bit later.

Michael Johnson: Yep. Plus, they're adding some Big 12 games to the lineup too, with, I believe it's Hawaii, Arizona, on August 30th.

Mike Reynolds: Alright. The CW, 75% owned by Nexstar, Nation's largest owner of TV stations, which presumably is going to get even larger if its deal with TEGNA gets approval. Justin, can you talk a little bit about the CW? They've got a lot of other sports these days that they've come on nationally and they're in the college football and college basketball games too.

Justin Nielson: CW has definitely put an emphasis on sports rights and sports programming. So you've got the Saturday college football pre-show. They will be doing the CW Football Saturday Countdown show debuting September 30th. So it'll be produced along with the Pac 12 and ACC games on the network. And then Tom Brenham will be back for the ACC games with Will Blackman and Sideline Ns, Wes Bryant. So you're going to see a lot more sports deals, I think. Even with the tie-up with Tegna that Nexstar is going through. So I think the emphasis is definitely going to be on CW in terms of their programming gaining access to, not the primary sports rights, but the secondary or third sports rights for some of these major events.

Mike Reynolds: They've stepped it up and it works. And again, the last time I think they talked about 30 to 40% of their lineup now is sports-oriented. So again, major drift from the CW of old. Yeah. Alright, let's stay out west a little bit. Scott, Scripps Sports and Big Sky. I think they just did a renewal.

Scott Robson: So Scripps has a pretty strong regional hold in the west. They own and operate TV stations across Montana, Idaho, Colorado, etc. Scripps Sports was formed in 2022. And the deal with the Big Sky Conference was the first sports media rights deal for the company. Since then, Scripps has been purchasing media rights to the WNBA, National Women's Soccer League on the national level. And then regionally, they've struck deals with some NHL teams. The Big Sky Conference isn't really a powerhouse by any means. But I think there is some attention there around games like the Montana versus Montana State matchup. It's important to note that ESPN Plus has the digital rights for these games. So we'll see how important those pan out to be.

Mike Reynolds: Alright. The other thing here, Mike mentioned it earlier. CBS has struck a primary rights deal with the PAC 12, covering the 2026 through 2031 seasons. But as we record this podcast, reports indicate that the CW is also nearing an announcement for its own PAC 12 deal. That would also cover the five-year period from 26 to 31. Last year we talked about Venue, which is a proposed joint venture of ESPN, Fox, and Warner Brothers. Supposed to be 14 sports-oriented networks for about $43 a month. It never got off the ground. Legal challenges by FUBU TV. The parties settled. FUBU is going to become integrated into Hulu Live TV with the FUBU execs running that. As of this recording, FUBU Sports has the rights to launch a sports-specific platform, but that hasn't happened yet. But we've had ESPN DTC and Fox Sports One, both launched on August 21. Attractive products, $29.99 for ESPN, $19.99 for Fox One. They're going to bundle on October 2nd for $39.99. Justin, you're first here, what's your take on the two launches?

Justin Nielson: It's really interesting. You're definitely focusing on the sports fan, but at the same time, you have to bring out your calculator, right? And see how it compares to the pay TV package. Because in a lot of cases, if you're adding in the broadcast networks and the streamers as well, where are you at? Are you still in the $100 range in terms of paying for TV? So I'd be curious to see what the uptick is in terms of subscribers. You're definitely going to have those individuals that maybe don't have paid TV packages that look at this as an attractive product, at least seasonally. You may have additional churn because of that seasonality. I think ESPN and FOX are going to have to support that seasonality with programming throughout the off-season as well.

Mike Reynolds: Mike, to that end again, I think the idea is that these products are going to be targeted to the folks that are not in the traditional TV bundle or maybe younger guys, sports fans who have never been part of the pay TV situation. Is that where most of the action is going to occur? Or do you think maybe some guys are going to get out of the traditional bundle and buy these things instead?

Michael Johnson: Yeah. Yeah. I think this new bundle, it could definitely appeal to the folks outside of the traditional pay TV universe. It is interesting because, like we mentioned before, ESPN Fox, they're the major players in college football and, with the rise of the streaming and people looking for that simplified option. This, DTC combo kind of offers that for college football fans at least. Justin mentioned seasonally I think at $30 a month and Fox One at $20 a month isn't terrible, but when you bundle them together for 40, it makes it a lot more appealing in my opinion.

Mike Reynolds: Scott, what's your take here? Are the launches of these products an accelerant for the further erosion of linear tv?

Scott Robson: Cord cutting is over a decade old now in terms of what we've seen in pay TV subscriptions declining, and I think these services might have made a bigger splash if they launched a few years ago, but I don't think there are many pay TV subscribers that were waiting on these services to launch before cutting the cord. It seems like streaming services are going to be bundled, and we will end up with a similar video option to the big cable packages we've known in the past. But, speaking to the services' appeal outside of the bundle, early reviews mentioned a lot of clips being pushed on the services and it having a feel of almost a TikTok or YouTube shorts type environments. So I think they are really going after those viewers that are outside of the bundle currently.

Mike Reynolds: And as I think as Justin mentioned, you've gotta get out your calculator and your checkbook and see how it maybe all adds up. We'll see. Alright guys, we're getting toward the end here. We're going into the second year of the 12 team college football playoffs. There's been a lot of expansion. Talk 12 to 14, 12 to 16, and now the Big Ten is talking 24 to 28 teams. Scott, I know you weren't a fan. We've talked about this before, about expanding the 68 team March Madness field for the men and the women. I can't imagine you're up for this.

Scott Robson: College football has historically been plagued with a poor post-season schedule and format. There's always complaints. We're just in the second year of this expanded 12 team playoff, and I think it's a huge step forward. I think the 28 team playoff would diminish the value of the regular season. But I can see why Big Ten and Fox are introducing the idea because it, to them, it's just, it's more revenue.

Mike Reynolds: Sure. Mike, is 24 or 28 teams. Is that madness?

Michael Johnson: Yeah, I think it could definitely be seen as madness, especially if you think about how it could change the landscape of college football. But I think it would be exciting. You'd get those first-round upsets and things along those lines. I know the Big Ten is really pushing for this, giving a lot of automatic bids to the Big Ten and SEC, adding revenue for the schools. But if you look at last season, you have Michigan. Minnesota, I think they were eight and four overall, tied for seventh in the Big Ten. And they would likely have gotten in. And then you'd have Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, they were nine and four overall and probably would've made it. Teams that you wouldn't probably think that might not have been the most playoff-worthy. Right now there's discussions. It's about expanding to 14, 16 teams. But when you go to all the way to 24 and 28, it could dilute the quality of the playoffs. With that said, the FCS has a model similar to that. Seems to be working pretty well with the top teams getting buys and hosting games on their campuses. Then you also have to consider the impact on teams outside the Power Four conferences. And even in independent teams like Notre Dame, things like that.

Mike Reynolds: Notre Dame might make it easier if they went into the ACC, but Justin, the last word on this topic is for you. What do you think? I hate the idea.

Justin Nielson: To be honest, I think 16 maybe would work, but 28 is way too much. I still remember the old BCS and the computers and everything like that, so at least we have an actual championship. But at the same time, it really diminishes the bowl games and the tradition of the bowl games. So I would not be a proponent of this.

Mike Reynolds: Alright, last season, Justin and yours truly, I'm proud to say we correctly selected that the Ohio State was going to lift the CFP Championship trophy. Scott was in on Oregon, and the Ducks were number one for much of the season. Mike went with Georgia. What are we looking at this year, fellas? I'll start. My son went to LSU. So the other big game on opening week is the Battle of the Death Valley denizens, LSU is traveling to Clemson. They met in the 2020 championship games with the right Tigers, the ones from Baton Rouge. They prevailed. Thankfully. I say that whenever this game could win the National Championship. Scott, who are you looking for?

Scott Robson: I'm going to go with Texas. It would be very exciting, and I think that they have the best shot.

Justin Nielson: Justin, how about you? I'd love to say my Sun Devils, but I think I'm going to have to go with Penn State. I think it stays in the Big Ten.

Reynolds: And Mike, last pick for you.

Michael Johnson: Yeah. Like we mentioned at the top, I'm going to say that the winner of the Texas, Ohio State game in the opening week is going to take home the championship this year. Right now I'm leaning Ohio State with the two, probably the two best players in the country with Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs.

Mike Reynolds: There you have it. That concludes this episode of “MediaTalk.” I wanted to let you know that Mike has published a college football preview that touches on a number of these topics and has a lot more with facts and figures. Mike's story is available on Cap IQ Pro. Now, I wanted to thank our Kagan guests — Justin, Scott, and Mike — for sharing their knowledge about college footballs and their picks. Appreciate it guys.

Johnson, Robson and Nielson: Thanks, Mike.

Mike Reynolds: This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks for listening today, and we'll catch up again next week on the September 4th installment of “MediaTalk” when we'll dive into the NFL season ahead.