MediaTalk | Season 3 | Ep. 26 - Wimbledon: Where Tennis Tradition Meets Technology

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, the senior reporter covering the media industry with S&P Global Market Intelligence's Tech Media and Telecom news team. Welcome to Media Talk, a podcast hosted by S&P Global, where the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. Today I'm joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan Analyst, JP O'Sullivan, and Mike Johnson, JP's in London, and MJ, like me, is in New York.

We're going to volley across the pond about Wimbledon. Now, the Championships, along with March Madness, are probably my two favorite events on the sporting calendar. Going back to 2019, I was fortunate to go to the All England Club. I got to see my favorite player of all time, Roger Federer, in action. He conceded the first set but then swept the last three against South African Lloyd Harris. Mike, MJ, big tennis fan. What about Wimbledon?

Michael Johnson: Yeah. Hey Mike, thanks for having me on the podcast. Always fun talking sports. Yes, I love tennis. Obviously, the few weeks surrounding Wimbledon are just the best time of year. Hope to make it there to take in the tradition at some point in the future. We'll see.

Reynolds: JP, how about you?

JP O’Sullivan: Yeah, Wimbledon is not only a standout event on the tennis circuit but also on the broader sports calendar. So here, there's a cluster of summer events that take place either in London or across the nearby home counties that run from June through July: Royal Ascot is the first of those, Henley Regatta, Wimbledon, and then Test cricket at Lord's or The Oval. So it's a busy period, but in terms of international appeal, Wimbledon certainly leads that group of events.

Reynolds: I think there's some new things going on at the tournament this year. Linesmen, I think, are out; the electronic line calling system is in. There are 450 cameras that have been installed around the courts. Too bad for the umpires, but some are returning as match assistants, so maybe they get to watch and not have to work. Mike, your thoughts about that?

Johnson: Yeah, like you mentioned, one of the biggest announcements this year is that Wimbledon is going to replace all the line judges with the electronic line calling. It's a huge shift considering it's the first time in over 140 years that human line judges will be replaced by some sort of technology. So the system's going to be used across all courts and qualifying events, following the lead of other Grand Slam tournaments. Along with that, this year Wimbledon is introducing a range of AI-powered features across their website and their app. For instance, fans will have access to almost real-time information about the matches. There's also an upgraded tool predicting winners of each match. And then they're also introducing some sort of a match chat, which is supposed to be a conversational interface, allowing fans to explore information about the matches in real time. It incorporates AI agents and other large language models trained on Wimbledon's editorial style. So they're using traditional terms like gentlemen's and ladies' singles, which is a nice touch. Fans will be able to use the pre-written prompts to answer their questions, such as who served the most aces in the match and things like that. So it's shaping up to be a landmark year for Wimbledon, blending a little bit of innovation with a strong sense of tradition.

Reynolds: Cool. Interesting. JP, I think the linemen aside and AI making its way to everywhere around the world notwithstanding, I believe the ladies' and gentlemen's singles matches, which have started at 2:00 PM forever, are going to 4:00 PM on site. What do you make of this? Is that a bridge too far for a traditional tournament like Wimbledon?

O’Sullivan: Yeah, I think the change makes a great deal of sense. So locally and across Europe, it pushes these matches into prime time. Okay. And it also makes things a little easier for those in the US. However, 4:00 PM in some parts of Asia is midnight. So a late finish for those viewers. But it's also important to remember there is an 11:00 PM playing curfew, even with the roof closed. They're probably pushing it to the limit in terms of what they can do with the scheduling and the curfew, of course, because this event takes place in a residential area with planning constraints.

Reynolds: Interesting. Mike, are you good with this? NBC over the years and ESPN, the same breath. It's been "Breakfast at Wimbledon," billed that way a long time. Maybe now it's "Brunch at Wimbledon" for the East Coast, and instead of strawberries and cream, it's strawberries and champagne. And on the West Coast, I guess it's still "Breakfast at Wimbledon." What do you think there?

Johnson: Yeah, so like you mentioned, here on the East Coast, the final matches will start around 11:00 AM, perfect for that brunch crowd. And then the two-hour time change should usher in more West Coast viewers, providing higher ratings, especially if we get some buzzworthy men's and women's finals. With that being said, there is a small piece of me that will, you know, miss turning on the TV early in the morning with the match almost ready to begin, or in the case of my college days, the match being halfway through back in the day.

Reynolds: Okay. Okay. There you go. That's what we want to hear. All England Club generates income through various channels: media rights, ticket sales, sponsorship, concessions, and merchandise. JP, can you give us a sense of how the tournament did last year?

O’Sullivan: Yeah, so in terms of revenue, it brought in $409.7 million, of which the media distribution is the key component here. And Wimbledon seems to be happy working with long-term media partners, developing a really tight relationship. So they have revenue considerations but also editorial ones. So they take a really considered approach to media sales, working alongside IMG. And of course, the other components are hospitality and ticketing.

Reynolds: Mike, as JP just mentioned, the media revenues are the big driver in the US; that's ESPN. Give us a sense of what kind of money they're paying the All England Club for the rights. I guess it's from first ball to last, as I say.

Johnson: So for US audiences, the Wimbledon Championships rank as the second most-watched Grand Slam tournament after the US Open. And that fact is reflected in the media rights valuations. Our updated estimate for ESPN's 12-year media rights deal for Wimbledon, which started last year, exceeds $80 million annually. This compares to the US Open media deal that was recently completed, which is valued at around just north of, I think, $170 million per year. The Wimbledon agreement allowed ESPN Plus to stream every match from all 18 courts for the first time last year, alongside ABC's coverage of key matches throughout the tournament's later stages. And this partnership will continue to evolve following the launch of ESPN's new DTC offering this fall.

Reynolds: Sure. JP, what about on the UK side? This is one of those main events, so it's on the BBC, right?

O’Sullivan: Yes, it is a long-term relationship with the BBC. Wimbledon is a listed event here, so it has to be available to a majority of homes as a free-to-air transmission. And it's difficult to see that changing, given the tightness of that relationship.

Reynolds: What about Warner Bros. Discovery? It's also a big player in other nations for the tournament.

O’Sullivan: Yes, and even here in the UK, Eurosport and Warner have inherited a strong set of tennis rights as part of what was US sports legacy rights. They are very strong on athletics, winter sports, cycling, but particularly tennis rights. So here in the UK, those rights are now under the TNT Sports banner. They have a daily highlight show and will simulcast the finals, but they're very much a secondary rights holder in the UK. They have primary rights in 11 other European markets.

Reynolds: So it's an important event, clearly. My sense though, guys, is that Wimbledon, again, tradition and all the rest of that, and maybe they don't need money as much as others do, but it seems like money's being left on the table. For instance, Mike, their sponsorship roster, like the Masters, is relatively limited, right?

Johnson: Yeah. Wimbledon has always upheld a strong sense of tradition, similar to the Masters, like you were saying. The All England Club Committee prefers long-term partnerships with trusted sponsors like Rolex and Slazenger. Interestingly enough, these sponsors are not allowed to advertise directly on the grounds. Similar to the Masters tournament, most logos on the courts are black and barely visible, which helps highlight the beauty of the lush light green grass and dark green borders throughout the club. On Center Court, the logos are white, so small that they're almost unnoticeable to anyone not seated in the front row. And that's in stark contrast to the US Open, which takes a different route, seizing every opportunity basically to display its sponsors' names in bold, all around the court and even on the nets as well.

Reynolds: Sure, yep. Not to mention during the commercials, JP, if I'm not mistaken, BBC runs the tournament without ads. So if that's the case, what's on in between? Just never leave the court.

O’Sullivan: Yes, the production team must work really hard. So there's more analysis and discussion, there's highlights reels, but also there's a lot of tennis being played. So there's opportunities to surface what's going on in the outer courts. But indeed, there's no commercial airtime on BBC networks, but they do show their internal promotions.

Reynolds: Before we take a close look at this year's event, guys, let's discuss tennis in general. MJ, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Kagan Consumer Insights recently did a survey on tennis. Can you talk a little bit about what they found there? I think it did pretty well overall in terms of the world of sports.

Johnson: Yeah, so the survey was conducted in the US and then eight markets across Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. It revealed a strong interest in watching televised tennis. Leading the way was Italy, where 48% of respondents indicated they followed the sport last year. Italy and China both experienced a significant increase of over 30% in the number of households watching tennis over the past three years, which was huge. We also conducted a similar survey last year that kind of focused on age demographics. Among tennis viewers, we found that tennis viewers tend to skew toward the older generations in most markets, which makes sense. However, it wasn't all about the older crowd. Italy stood out as a notable interest among younger demographics. 24% of Italians aged between 18 and 24 indicated they watched tennis. The insights kind of paint a fascinating picture of global tennis viewership overall and the trends moving forward.

Reynolds: To that end, JP, I think Wimbledon is the most social of the four tennis Grand Slams.

O’Sullivan: Yeah, indeed. And I think this is really important because a lot of young people and non-tennis fans may see tennis in a short-form context before they'll actually see a full game live. This really is an opportunity to convert future viewers.

Reynolds: Maybe pickleball brings people a quicker game. Here in the States at least, I think people are playing that in an increased number. Maybe it all comes together. And tennis viewers over the course of the next decade or two become a little bit younger. So the tournament, I think, is about 550,000 people attended Wimbledon last year. All of the tickets for Center Court, which seats about 15,000, and Court One, which is about 12,000 to 13,000, they're all sold out. People queue up every day to try to get in there. It trails the other majors significantly. I think the Australian had 1.2 million people attend this year, the US Open in '24 was like 1.1 million, and the French, I think, has expanded and has gone up to about 850,000 for the most recent Roland Garros. But JP, they're looking to expand the grounds over there. Is something really happening?

O’Sullivan: Yeah. So to underpin this, the demand is certainly there for this to occur. But they're proposing 39 grass courts and an expansion of the grounds. But this is really a long-term project. So there's obviously concerns in terms of conservation and challenges because of the fact that it's a residential area.

Reynolds: Right? And you say the neighborhood may not want more courts, right?

O’Sullivan: Yeah, I think they have to make a compelling case that the infrastructure is there and this can work. It's clearly a long-term project, but they have pulled off successful development in the past with the challenges of the retractable roof that occurred many years ago. So there's certainly the will there to get this over the line and to expand and really to scale up.

Reynolds: Mike, All England Club CEO, Sally Bolton, in a recent interview with the Financial Times, talked about Wimbledon's present and future and how she views the competition. It's not just tennis; it's everything. And to that end, despite the long-running traditions, Wimbledon is moving into, as you mentioned earlier, with AI and other parts of the digital age as well.

Johnson: It was an interesting article with Sally Bolton. She emphasized that they kind of view competition as pretty much any form of engagement, entertainment, or content. She was talking about the reality that younger audiences are now being selective about how they choose to spend their time and who they engage with. They often don't see a clear distinction between different types of entertainment, and it's all about this attention economy that we always hear about. And Wimbledon's trying to maintain their share in it. She basically highlighted the need to understand that engaging with a younger audience requires going to them rather than waiting for them to find the All England Club. So yeah, there's still some traditional thinking in the sports world, especially with tennis, with a lot of young tennis players playing because their parents introduced them to the sport. Sure. But she noted that they want to maybe expand their audience, both in the UK and other regions, and they must meet the younger generation where they're viewing the content.

Reynolds: I think they've done well with their Roblox entry. I think Wimble World has 19 million visits. You figure most of those visitors are young folks. So we'll see. Exactly. Yep. Alright. Before we get to this year's tournament, let's look back a little bit at last year. Mike, can you talk about last year's viewership on the ESPN networks?

Johnson: Last year's viewership across ESPN networks for the tournament averaged 677,000 viewers, which was technically a slight decrease of 2% from the previous year, but an increase of 5% from 2022. The men's final featuring Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic averaged 2.2 million viewers. And while that was a significant number, it represented a 30-plus percent drop from 2023's epic five-set match, right? Yep. Between the two players. I guess it is important to note too that the men's semi-finals averaged just under 1 million viewers, which was a big 10% increase from 2023. And it was the highest viewership of the semi-finals since, I think it was 2019.

Reynolds: Okay. I think Carlos won the first two sets, like 6-2, 6-2, before the third set went to a tiebreak. So it wasn't the most compelling match. And as you mentioned, compared to the five-setter in '23, it definitely didn't measure up that way.

Johnson: Exactly. Yeah. And then, on a brighter note, the women's final last year averaged 1.4 million viewers. I think it was between Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur. Yep. And it represented an increase of almost 10% from 2023. A lot of eyes were on that women's final.

Reynolds: Cool. JP, what are the audiences like for Wimbledon in the UK?

O’Sullivan: Yeah, local audiences are always strong, but local talent will really captivate the nation. So last year, the men's final had a peak of just over 11 million. But if we go back to Andy Murray's success back in 2013, that peaked at 17.3 million.

Reynolds: Okay, yeah. So you can see the importance of a local player to really accelerate the viewership.

Reynolds: To that end, and now we're finally going to get to the '25 tournament. JP, so I guess I just saw the WTA rankings came out. Mr. Draper is now fourth in the world. Does he have a real chance? Again, Andy won in '13 and '16, so it's not a long drought compared to what happened with Fred Perry going back to 1936. But Draper, does he have a shot here?

O’Sullivan: Yeah, I think so. But I think overall, it's very difficult to look beyond Carlos Alcaraz certainly in the men's this year. I wonder whether you have an opinion on that?

Reynolds: Yeah, he's looking for three in a row now. I know he's ranked second behind Sinner, but he's got to be the favorite coming into the tournament here. On the ladies' side, JP, does Emma or Katie Boulter, do they really have a chance? Virginia Wade lifted the trophy back in 1977, so it's been a long time since a woman from the UK has won the tournament.

O’Sullivan: Yes. Yeah. I think the ladies this year, I'd probably go with Aryna Sabalenka. I think just the determination and the big serve will definitely be focused this year.

Reynolds: Okay, Mike, I know when Coco won the French Open this year, she beat Sabalenka. The audience when she won the '23 US Open was significant. How do you handicap Coco going into the '25 Wimbledon tournament?

Johnson: Yeah. She's certainly a strong contender to take home the title. Her recent victory at the French Open snapped a decade-long drought for American women at Roland Garros, and she defeated world number one Sabalenka. So she's on a hot streak here. And yeah, I think she's definitely a strong contender, and she will bring a lot of eyes to Wimbledon.

Reynolds: The draw doesn't come out until the 27th, so we don't know how the players are all going to match up, but I'm going to take a shot here and say that Mr. Djokovic is going to win his eighth Wimbledon title, tying my Roger Federer at the top spot with eight titles, although that's still one behind Martina Navratilova's nine. That would give Novak a nice round 25 career Grand Slams, and I don't know that anyone else is getting to that level ever. But I'm thinking that Elena, who surrendered the final six points in the third set tiebreak against Lina at the recent Berlin Open, regains her 2022 championship form and raises the Venus Rosewater Dish as the ladies' champion. So that's what I think. MJ, what do you think?

Johnson: Yeah, so I'm going to go with Coco to win on the women's side, which would be a massive storyline. And then I'm going to go with Alcaraz on the men's side to continue his Wimbledon dominance for his third title in a row.

Reynolds: JP, the hometown guy. What do you think?

O’Sullivan: Yeah, I think I'm going to go with Alcaraz for the men's and Sabalenka for the women's, but I'm also looking forward to seeing Fonseca as well. That would be my player to watch.

Reynolds: That takes us to the end of this episode of “MediaTalk.” I wanted to thank MJ and JP for talking tennis in general and Wimbledon in particular. Thanks very much for joining us, guys.

O’Sullivan: Thanks, Mike. Thank you.

Reynolds: I'm Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. Enjoy watching Wimbledon, and we'll catch up on the next episode of “MediaTalk”