Listen: MediaTalk | Season 2 | Ep. 31 - What a Summer of Sequels Says About 2024's Box Office Outlook

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Mike Reynolds: Hi, I'm Mike Reynolds, a senior reporter covering the media industry with the S&P Global Market Intelligence tech, media and telecom news team. Welcome to "MediaTalk," a podcast hosted by S&P Global wherein the news and research staff explore issues in the ever-evolving media landscape. We're running a sequel of sorts. Today, I'm joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan Senior Research Analyst Wade Holden, who specializes in the box office and the movie business, and Mac Mathews, an associate director of editorial, design and publishing and a film aficionado. Last time, Wade and Mac gave us their thoughts on the summer box office prospects. Now, we're going to assess what happened in Hollywood and beyond this summer and get a sense of what the fall may bring. How are you doing, Wade? Are you ready?

Wade Holden: I'm doing well. Ready to go.

Reynolds: Mac, how goes it at the movies for you?

Mac Mathews: Goes great. A rollercoaster of a summer. Can't wait to talk about it.

Reynolds: All right. Let's get to it. Wade, when we spoke in the spring, you forecasted that summer 2024 wouldn't measure up to the $4 billion generated in summer 2023. You were right. It was a very streaky summer week to week. Where did things wind up mapping out overall?

Holden: Overall, it was down to $3.65 billion versus the $4.08 billion in 2023. It was streaky. I mean, it was a rough start; the first seven weeks of the summer season had declines ranging from 13% to 53.2%. And it wasn't until weeks 24 through 27 that we actually saw a growth streak that was prompted by the great performances from "Inside Out 2" and "Despicable Me 4." And then, after those four weeks, it was another five weeks of declines and then just one more week of growth in week 33, which was a minor 0.6%.

Reynolds: Mac, there was no cultural zeitgeist like with "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" in 2023, which made for a tough act to follow, but there were more releases in summer 2024 than in the prior year. In your view, what were some reasons that things didn't measure up?

Mathews: Yeah, there were 249 films released in theaters during the summer of 2024, which is up from 209 films released in 2023, making it the largest number of summer releases since Kagan began tracking weekly box office in 1997. But I would say that this year didn't have maybe as many large studio tentpole films, as the summer season was still dealing with the aftermath of last year's strikes. And some of the films that were supposed to be the big summer tentpoles didn't hit. A lot of things did connect, though, and even though we didn't have quite the hype of a "Barbenheimer" event, we did have some really big movies in "Inside Out 2" and "Deadpool & Wolverine." Those two combined for way more than "Barbenheimer" in terms of total gross.

Reynolds: Okay. Let's look at some of the individual theatricals. Mac, last time you and I argued about the virtues of the Ryans: Gosling versus Reynolds. You went Gosling; I went for the home name advantage. Your thoughts on Gosling's "The Fall Guy"? You liked the movie. It started off the summer, but it maybe didn't resonate in a really big way like some of the other movies that have transformed from TV into the theater.

Mathews: Yeah, "The Fall Guy" played out a lot like an adventure rom-com movie. It landed similarly to "The Lost City," which starred Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum. And that one made about $190 million worldwide, and this one made about $180 million. So I think that "The Fall Guy" would be seen as a success if it were budgeted more like "The Lost City," which was done at about half the price. And I think Ryan Gosling, the movie-going market doesn't really see him as a big tentpole action-adventure guy. They see him as a leading man in a great romantic comedy that'll have great holds week after week at the theater if the movie is good, but it's maybe not going to break out with a huge opening weekend like you might expect from a summer tentpole.

Reynolds: Gotcha. Wade, why don't you talk about Ryan Reynolds? He was central to the summer's second- and ninth-biggest box office draws.

Holden: I think people like his persona, his public personality that he puts out there. He's cultivated a positive fan base online with the jokes he cracks about his wife and with Hugh Jackman and things like that. I think "Deadpool" is certainly the film that rocketed him to superstardom. And he seems to pick his theatrically released projects in a smart way. When you look at films like "Free Guy" and "Pokémon Detective Pikachu," which aren't "Deadpool," it seems like the risks he takes really come from the direct-to-streaming films that he's done in recent years.

Reynolds: Overall, this was a summer of sequels, prequels — franchise extensions, if you will. Mac, let's talk about the summer's third-best box office performer, "Despicable Me 4," and another, the fourth installment of "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" with Martin Lawrence and Will Smith, which came in fifth. If you can talk about those two.

Mathews: Yeah, I caught both of those in the theater. They both did really well based on expectations. "Despicable Me 4" played out like a "Despicable Me" movie. There's still life left in that franchise. It made just under a billion worldwide, getting about almost $360 million or so domestic. And then "Bad Boys: Ride or Die," it made over $400 million worldwide, getting close to $200 million domestic. I think that's a solid performance. It maybe came in a little lower than the third installment, but that one had a 20-year gap.

Reynolds: Right?

Mathews: Yeah. To have this one kind of be on the same playing field after a much shorter gap shows that these movies work. It's not just a nostalgia-driven phenomenon. And "Despicable Me," when it's got "minions" in the title, does tend to do a little better than just when it's a "Despicable Me" movie, and that's held true again this round.

Reynolds: Do you think there's a fifth "Bad Boys" down the line?

Mathews: I have no clue. I think Will Smith has proven to be a box office draw despite what happened with the Chris Rock thing. So, I don’t see him slowing down necessarily, and I would expect there to be another one down the line unless he just gets involved in too many other franchises.

Reynolds: Wade, how about "Kingdom," the latest incarnation in the "Planet of the Apes" franchise, and "Twisters," which returned to the screen in a new form compared with the original's debut, which was almost 30 years ago in 1996?

Holden: I feel like the modern "Planet of the Apes" franchise has just been quietly doing very well since it was rebooted. The four films now have grossed nearly $2.07 billion worldwide, with each film averaging $517.1 million per film on a worldwide basis. It's doing well. There's clearly a huge appetite for those films on a global basis. And I think when it comes to "Twisters," it just felt like a good old-fashioned summer popcorn flick with a lot of action and a good emotional core that resonated with audiences.

Reynolds: Wade, "Inside Out 2" was the No. 1 draw at the movies this summer, making $650 million domestically. On the other side, the fifth installment of the "Mad Max" franchise, "Furiosa," wasn't the charm as a Memorial Day tentpole. Can you talk about those two?

Holden: Yeah. When it comes to film studios, I think Pixar has a near-perfect record when it comes to their films. If you exclude "Luca," "Soul," and "Turning Red," which all got direct streaming releases during the pandemic, the only Pixar film that has grossed less than $100 million domestically is "Onward," and that made $60.4 million in the first two weeks of March 2020 before the theaters shut down. So, there's a strong possibility that it would have been a $100 million domestic film too.

Reynolds: So it was not the right timing then, that's for sure.

Holden: And I don't think the success of "Inside Out 2" is a massive surprise when you consider that "Incredibles 2" grossed $608.6 million in 2018, which was 14 years after the release of the first film. So, there's a lot of goodwill among audiences for the films that Pixar puts out. As for "Furiosa," I didn't watch it, but I can speculate that maybe audiences are not very interested in a film in the "Mad Max" universe that doesn't star Mad Max.

Reynolds: There you go. Mac, what did you think? Did you see "Furiosa" and "Inside Out 2"?

Mathews: I did. "Inside Out 2," who doesn't want to know how their brain works? That's just a bulletproof idea. And I'm not too surprised that it took off the way it did, and I expect them to keep going back to that well because we all want to know what's going on up there. And, "Furiosa," I caught that one at the theater. I enjoyed it. It's not even that it's not just a "Mad Max" film. There's a different actor playing Furiosa — you have Anya Taylor-Joy instead of Charlize Theron. So that's another complication.

And then add to the fact that the story is long. It's told in chapters, like an old epic. You don't see that kind of film out too often nowadays; maybe "Horizon" would be the most comparable one recently. But with that kind of storytelling, a lot of people are more comfortable with that on TV. And when they go out to the theater and fork out that kind of dough, they may want to get wrapped up in a story that's gonna be like, all about that big, exciting moment of a story and not seeing things play out over such a long stretch of time.

Reynolds: Interesting. That makes sense. You want to get hit as opposed to getting into the stories gently or subtly or long-windedly, perhaps.

Anyway, how about originals, new kinds of concepts this year? Wade, anything that worked for you?

Holden: Yeah, I really enjoyed "Horizon." I'm a sucker for Westerns. I grew up watching them with my dad, but I do understand some of the criticisms about the disjointed plotline. I was willing to give Kevin Costner a little grace, knowing that it's part one of a planned four-part film epic. So, I got it, and I really still enjoyed it, and I was eager, very eager to see the second installment in August. So, I was disappointed when it didn't connect with audiences and Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. pulled the second film from the calendar.

Reynolds: Wow.

Holden: Yeah. And I also liked "The Bike Riders." I'm a Jodie Comer fan, so it's fun to see her do a different accent. She's really great at those. And the way the film was made, to me, it gave me some "Goodfellas" vibes with the narration and how it was vignettes in time over a period of years. I enjoyed the film; I thought it was very good.

Reynolds: Mac, how about you? Something that caught your eye and your wallet this summer on the original front?

Mathews: Originals? I’m looking at what I saw, and it was just sequel after sequel. I did go out and see "Trap." It did keep me entertained, but it didn't totally work for me.

Reynolds: Okay.

Reynolds: Summer studio scorecard? Wade.

Holden: Yes. Disney's three summer releases grossed $1.25 billion domestically. And then, when you add in the $272.8 million from 20th Century Studios' three films, it was a very good summer for the Walt Disney Co.

Reynolds: I gotcha. Mac, NBCUniversal Media LLC's Universal Pictures plays second.

Mathews: So, Universal really knocked it out of the park with "Despicable Me." And "Twisters": It did really well domestically; it didn't really catch on overseas, but I think they have to be pretty happy with how it did here in the US.

Reynolds: All right, let's turn to the fall. Thirty-six years after the original, Warner Bros. and Michael Keaton have another hit with "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice."

Mac, what are your thoughts about that one?

Mathews: It just had its second weekend right now, and it's doing great. I think that if it had the $50 million weekend it just had as its opening weekend, people would still be thinking that this is a franchise that people want to see. And I think that they put together quite a compelling package, having a lot of the original cast return and then throwing Jenna Ortega into the mix, coming off of her hit show "Wednesday" on Netflix and having this have that same kind of kooky goth feel to it, it just seemed like at that point they were really cooking and putting together something that was going to generate some hype.

Reynolds: All right, we're going to go to a special guest, "Media Talk" editor and my boss, Sarah James, saw "Beetlejuice" as part of her birthday week and enjoyed it. Sarah, the floor is yours.

Sarah Barry James: Yeah. Thanks, Mike. I really enjoyed it. I'm a big fan of the original, and I generally enjoy campy horror comedies overall. I like scary movies with a lot of practical effects, and so "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" really falls right into that wheelhouse. And, I agree with Mac; I think that the on-screen talent with Jenna Ortega, Winona Ryder, Catherine O'Hara and Michael Keaton — you just really can't lose with that grouping. But then also the off-screen talent with Tim Burton and then Danny Elfman on the music. Even just the opening credit scene with that sort of reprisal of the "Beetlejuice" theme brought me right back to the '80s, or maybe I guess early '90s, when I was a kid watching it on VHS. It felt like it was a gift made for fans of the original.

But I also think "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" is a strange case study because there was a moment where it appeared that the movie, as it was originally budgeted at over $147 million, I think, was going to go straight to streaming. And a decision had to be made where if they could cut about $50 million out of the budget, then they could get a theatrical release. And Tim Burton and the actors and actresses in the film all agreed to pay cuts, and so they were able to make the movie for about $99 million and they were able to get that theatrical release. And so, I think that's an interesting moment in the movie industry where the creatives behind the film decided that the theatrical release, seeing it on the big screen, was important enough that they were willing to take a pay cut on the front end just to make sure that audiences could see the movie the way they thought it should be filmed.

Reynolds: All right, so Wade, I'm assuming that the prospective big hit is "Last Dance" for "Venom." What's your sensibility for how that's going to do?

Holden: I think it'll do well. The first two films were virtually identical with their $300-plus million domestic grosses. And both of them also did very well internationally, I think, but the first did better than the second. But I think the expectation is that this will turn out to be another big film for Sony.

Reynolds: I don't know what the plot line is; many rock bands have been professing their last tours for a decade. This one says last, but could there be a fourth one here?

Holden: Ah, I don't think so. I think, by all accounts, Tom Hardy's done with the character and pleased with the trilogy of films. I think it would take a lot to entice him to come back for a fourth film if Sony wants to do that.

Reynolds: Okay. All right. "Gladiators 2" is coming out before Thanksgiving. When I'm flipping the cable channels on my large and very expensive Fios video package, and "Gladiators" and Russell Crowe, who won the Best Actor for his turn as Maximus, appears, it's like "The Godfather." I have to stop and at least check it out for 10 minutes before I change the channel again. Ridley Scott, who directed the originals, is back. Denzel Washington, Pedro Pascal, Paul Mescal, and yes, Connie Nielsen are in the mix. How's this going to perform? A thumbs up or down for this visit to the Coliseum? Mac, you first.

Mathews: I have no clue, and I'm not going to throw a prediction out there for this one because we've seen time and time again this summer that these old properties will find a new audience and find new life. But this one is something where you don't have Russell Crowe; you don't have Joaquin Phoenix back. You've got to see how Paul Mescal can do in terms of carrying this thing along, and I'm just not sure how it'll do.

Reynolds: Wade, do you have a different view? Do you think many are going to be entertained by "Gladiators 2"?

Holden: Ridley Scott and Denzel? That's got me hooked right away. I'm for sure intrigued by the film, and I hope that it's going to be able to capture the magic of the first. I think Mac's right — there's a bit of a question mark when you don't have Russell Crowe, who's the star and really made that film. As Mac said, too, we've already seen the trend this year: people are willing to fill the theaters for sequels to films that were released a decade or more ago. So, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for it to be a huge hit.

Reynolds: All right. How about "Wicked"? So, Broadway sensation. Mac, does it translate from the Great White Way to Hollywood in a big way? It's the first of two parts.

Mathews: I have some excitement around this one. I think when the first trailer came out, it looked like maybe it still needed some more time in the oven in terms of how the CGI looked. But then, as more trailers have come out, when I'm at the theater seeing something else and a "Wicked" trailer comes on, I always get wrapped up in it, and I think that's going to be nice this fall.

Reynolds: All right.

Wade, what do we think about another animated "Moana"?

Holden: Oh, yeah. I believe "Moana 2" is going to do quite well, and it's going to really help keep Disney firmly cemented at the top of the box office market share chart. I think it's going to be the big Thanksgiving hit.

Reynolds: Right. Wade, any sleepers? Anything coming up in the fall that you’d like to take a look at?

Holden: I'm going to come off like a broken record here. I really want to see "Horizon: Chapter Two." I really hope it comes out in theaters before the end of the year. That's what I want to see.

Reynolds: All right. Mac, anything from your end?

Mathews: What do we have coming up? I'd like to see "Venom"; I think those movies are fun. As I mentioned, I'm looking forward to "Wicked." There are family films that I'll probably bring the kids out to see. "The Wild Robot" is based off of a story that they really like, and they're fans of "Moana." We'll probably end up at the new "Transformers," so we'll have a busy fall.

Reynolds: There you have it. This concludes this episode of "MediaTalk." I just wanted to thank Wade and Mac for spending a lot of time sharing their views on summer 2024's performance and giving us a sense, along with Sarah, of what's going on this fall. This is Mike Reynolds. Thanks to all of you for listening. See you at the movies, and we'll definitely catch up soon on the next edition of "MediaTalk."