BNP Paribas leads European banks in share price upside

BNP Paribas SA exhibits the highest potential share price improvement among top European banks, according to an analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

As of Oct. 1, the French bank's closing price was 17.3% below the analyst consensus price target, compared with a median of 1.3% for the 20 largest European banks by market capitalization in the sample.

French bank stocks experienced a sell-off during the quarter amid political volatility and the resignation of Prime Minister François Bayrou. The shares of French banks declined further on Oct. 6 after Sébastien Lecornu, Bayrou's successor, resigned less than one month into his appointment.

In this analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence examined European bank stocks trading in relation to analysts' consensus price targets as of Oct. 1, 2025. Only stocks covered by at least three analysts were included.

BNP Paribas and its domestic peer Crédit Agricole SA were the two cheapest banks in the sample, with price-to-next-12-month earnings per share ratios at 7.3x for BNP Paribas and 7.6x for Crédit Agricole. Analysts estimate BNP Paribas will report the highest EPS among the analyzed banks in 2025, with projected growth of about 11% in both 2026 and 2027.

France's Société Générale SA demonstrated the third-highest implied share price upside. It also has the second-highest buy strength of 77.8%, surpassed only by Italian lender Intesa Sanpaolo SpA. Buy strength is the ratio of "buy" and "overweight" analyst recommendations to total recommendations.

Société Générale recorded the highest total return over the last 12 months at 163.3%, surpassing Banco Santander SA, Commerzbank AG and Deutsche Bank AG, which reported annual returns exceeding 100%. The French lender posted the biggest annual market cap gain in the third quarter, rising 148.6%, a recent Market Intelligence analysis showed.

NatWest Group PLC ranked second in implied share price upside among the analyzed banks at 13.4%, and boasted one of the highest buy strengths, at 75%. NatWest and Barclays PLC were also among the most affordably priced banks in the sample, with price-to-next-12-month EPS ratios of 8.1x.

Barclays, NatWest and Lloyds Banking Group PLC posted some of the strongest year-over-year revenue growth among large European banks in the second quarter, Market Intelligence data showed. Growth was driven by higher net interest income at all three banks, despite the Bank of England's five interest rate cuts over the past year.

S&P Global Ratings raised its ratings on NatWest and Lloyds, citing improved capital positions, as well as strategic and earnings strength. The rating agency also said potential tax changes would be manageable for banks operating in the country.

However, shares in UK banks have been hit in recent months on calls for the government to impose a windfall tax on the sector.

As of Oct. 3, NatWest shares traded at 548 pence, remaining below target over the past 12 months. Shares in BNP Paribas, the lender with the highest upside, closed Oct. 3 at €78 and fell more than 3% on Oct. 6 amid political uncertainty.

HSBC Holdings PLC demonstrated an implied downside of 7% as of Oct. 1, the most significant among the analyzed banks.

Seven other banks in the sample, including Germany's Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, also had implied downsides to analyst consensus price targets as of Oct. 1.

Commerzbank had the weakest buy strength at 15.4%, significantly below the sample median of 57.5%. It was also among the most expensively priced banks, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11.7x. Its total return exceeded 104% in the last 12 months, placing the lender among the top three in the sample as of Oct. 1.

While Commerzbank's strong performance has fueled share price growth in recent months, the rally may have run its course, according to some analysts.

Commerzbank's EPS is projected at €2.55 in 2025, growing 17.3% year over year in 2026 and 19.2% 2027, among the highest increases in the sample, Market Intelligence data showed.

Norway-based DNB Bank ASA, Crédit Agricole and Swiss lender UBS Group AG recorded the lowest total returns in the sample. UBS was also the most expensive bank in the sample, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7x, compared to the group median of 9.7x.

– Access estimate data for BNP Paribas and NatWest on S&P Capital IQ Pro. – View aggregate financial highlights for French, UK and German banks on S&P Capital IQ Pro.