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Summary
Agenda:
- Situation update: What “de facto closure” means operationally (risk, safety, contracting).
- Traffic & flow disruption: AIS transit collapse; Gulf crude loadings/export impact and what is still moving.
- Tanker freight shock: dirty and clean route impacts; war-risk, repositioning and the “two-phase” rate response.
- Re-routing & supply chain adaptations: Red Sea & other alternatives, diversion economics.
- Tanker company implications: Earnings sensitivity, chartering strategy, safety/insurance stance, and cashflow upside/downside.
Key talking points / latest data we will cover in the webinar:
- Near-halt in Hormuz transits: Ship traffic collapsed, with Gulf crude exports/loadings down sharply.
- Oil Price volatility and Middle East dislocation.
- Freight rates: initial spike, then volatile normalization as ships reposition. Route shock examples.
- Operational constraint is safety/risk, not insurance availability. (NorthStandard noted cover is available, but owners are not required to undertake voyages deemed factually unsafe under war clauses.)
- US/Venezuela/Brazil/Guyana/WAF supporting ton-miles, and confirmed they are keeping vessels outside Hormuz while monitoring security/underwriter guidance.
Speakers
S&P Global Energy
Mark F. Esposito
Senior Principal Research Analyst, Commodities at Sea
Mr. Esposito spent six years in New York City brokering crude and refined products futures and options on behalf of global oil companies and international financial institutions prior to joining IHS Markit. Currently his focus is leveraging his experience in the financial markets to provide thorough analysis of liquid bulk commodity markets including crude, diesel, fuel oil, gasoline, jet fuel, LPG, and naphtha. Trade flow intelligence, freight markets, and underlying physical trading contribute to a complete assessment. The focus of research lies within fundamentals to develop supply and demand balance models, while delivering concise insight of the refining industry, maritime trade routes, and geopolitical affairs. He holds a B.S. from James Madison University.
S&P Global Energy
Fotios Katsoulas
Lead Analyst, Tanker Shipping and Alternative Fuels
Fotios focuses on the seaborne trade of crude oil and its impacts on the shipping cycles and investors' decisions, drawing from his experience in commercial shipping sectors such as crude oil and oil product tankers, LNG and LPG carriers, MODU and OSV. Previously, he gained experience in using the latest technology to provide better insights more quickly and more frequently to the shipping industry and to associated finance and insurance providers. As head of research for Affinity Shipping LLP and as shipping analyst for Maritime Strategies International Ltd., he managed big shipping data, developed shipping cycle econometric models, and assisted with advisory projects and valuations for major international shipping banks and financial providers. Fotios regularly attends international shipping industry conferences and has professional experience in operational research and corporate presentations.
He holds a Master of Science in shipping, trade and finance from Cass Business School, City University London, United Kingdom.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Emily O'Flaherty
Senior Director, Product Management
Emily O’Flaherty is a Senior Director in the product management team within S&P Global Market Intelligence focused on our industry-specific data & analytical solutions. Emily’s team provides clients with deep insights into the energy, banking, insurance, real estate, technology, and media & telecom sectors available via Capital IQ Pro and various delivery channels.
Questions?
Please contact us if you need more information or have trouble accessing the webinar.