ISO New England power prices defy widespread YOY decline in November

Wholesale power prices in most competitive US markets fell in November compared with year-ago levels, driven by lower natural gas prices and tepid electricity demand.

On-peak spot power prices in the Lower 48 shed 13.36% month over month and 20.11% year over year to average $33.30/MWh in November, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

ISO New England saw an average on-peak spot power price of $44.46/MWh in November, the highest among all US markets. ISO New England recorded increases of 9.80% month over month and 1.94% year over year.

Prices in the South market averaged $27.40/MWh in November, the lowest among all US markets, as the region saw a monthly decrease of 10.29% and a yearly drop of 14.62%.

Among the covered US markets, the Southwest Power Pool saw the largest monthly decrease at 33.09% to $30.77/MWh, while the West recorded the largest year-over-year drop in prices at 50.36% to $35.19/MWh.

Spot natural gas prices in organized US markets in the Lower 48 averaged $1.968/MMBtu in November, down 3.77% month over month and 30.48% year over year.

All power regions saw double-digit percent declines year over year, led by California ISO with a 42.33% decrease.

Gas-fired implied heat rates — the rate at which the market cost of power equals the cost of burning natural gas to generate electricity — averaged 16,918 Btu/kWh overall in November, up 14.92% from a year ago and down 9.96% from October.

In ISO New England, heat rates surged 58.65% year over year to 20,787 Btu/kWh, followed by Southwest Power Pool with a 48.30% increase to 19,375 Btu/kWh.

In November, coal-fired implied heat rates declined year over year and month over month for Central Appalachian and Powder River Basin coal.

For most organized North American markets, year-over-year changes in peak demand in November ranged from an 11% decrease in PJM Interconnection LLC to a 7.9% increase in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas Inc.

– Access more details on power index prices and power forwards & futures. – Access more details on natural gas index prices and natural gas forwards & futures.