Firearms shelves empty despite weapon, ammunition import surge

U.S. retailers of personal weapons and ammunition may be facing a shortage of supplies after an unprecedented surge in demand, according to the National Rifle Association, which has overwhelmed record manufacturing by the ammunition makers including Winchester and Hornady Manufacturing Co. Inc. ahead of the elections. Stock levels are still low in the first week of January, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation. 

Panjiva's analysis of FBI background checks shows that requests in December 2020 reached 3.94 million, the highest level since at least 1998 and up by 34.1% year over year. For the fourth quarter of 2020, overall growth was 37.5%. Permit requests are often higher in general election years ahead of concerns about potential changes in gun controls, as flagged in Panjiva's Oct. 19, 2020, research. In 2008, for example, when President Barack Obama came to power, there was an expansion of 27.0% year over year in the fourth quarter.

Panjiva's data shows U.S. imports of handheld weapons including rifles, shotguns and revolvers, among others, climbed by 64.8% year over year in the three months to Nov. 30, 2020, setting a monthly record of $295 million in the month of November.

The EU still dominates supplies, including imports by Beretta Holding SA and UMAREX GmbH & Co. KG, with 42.1% of the total in the three months to Nov. 30. There has been a shift in supplies from other sources, however. Imports from the U.K. dipped 45.7% lower to reach just 3.8% of the total, while imports from China (including Crosman Corp.) and Turkey (Armaments Corp. of South Africa Ltd.) surged 91.5% and 245% higher, respectively.

Imports of ammunition have also expanded but are still only in line with levels seen in the mid-2010s. U.S. imports increased by 74.4% year over year in the three months to Nov. 30, 2020, led by a 179% rise in imports from Russia (including those linked to Dag Ammo and TR&Z Corp.) and a 140% rise in shipments from South Korea (including PMC Ammunition). Supplies from the EU remained the most significant part (Magtech and Fiocchi Munizioni SpA) with a more modest increase of 31.8%. Shipments over the three months averaged $61 million per month, compared to $67 million in 2016. 

Christopher Rogers is a senior researcher at Panjiva, which is a business line of S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. This content does not constitute investment advice, and the views and opinions expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of S&P Global Market Intelligence. Links are current at the time of publication. S&P Global Market Intelligence is not responsible if those links are unavailable later.