Summary
Ensuring reliable power to new load segments, including datacenters and electric vehicles, has put greater focus on what can be deployed now in addition to what can be contracted in the next 3-5 years. While the rapidly growing wind, solar, and battery segments will be critical, the pivot to reliability will likely include greater reliance on gas-fired generation. Declines in natural gas prices further bolster the case for both peaking and baseload gas generation. Nowhere is this more evident than in the ERCOT market, where rapid load growth and supportive policies provide new tailwinds to a struggling gas merchant sector. How will these trends impact generation share in the near- and long-term?
Join S&P Global analysts as they review the latest quarterly US Power Forecast findings:
- Conditions driving a more favorable outlook for gas generation, and forecast implications:
- Near and long-term generation shares – is net-zero out of reach?
- Impact of load growth on generation share
- ERCOT forecasts a surge in load growth
- What is the impact on prices?
Speakers
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Steve Piper
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Director of Energy Research
Steve Piper is Director of Energy Research with S&P Global Market Intelligence. He has been with the company since 2009. Steve specializes in market price forecasting, economic feasibility assessment, demand forecasting and environmental analysis. Steve manages strategic research and forecasting for SNL Energy’s clients in the utilities, natural gas and coal industries.
Prior to his role at S&P Market Intelligence, Steve held positions at Platts, RDI and RCG/HaglerBailly.
Steve earned a Bachelor of Arts from Grinnell College and an Master in Project Management from the School of Public Affairs at University of Maryland-College Park.
Kristin Larson, PhD
Principal Analyst Energy Research
Kristin Larson has used her extensive data science and programming experience to add depth and insight to the Market Intelligence Power Forecast, which estimates generating asset value in U.S. markets.
Kristin Larson has used her extensive data science and programming experience to add depth and insight to the Market Intelligence Power Forecast, which estimates generating asset value in U.S. markets. Her publications cover renewable energy, capacity markets, power plant profitability, and energy storage. Previously, Dr. Larson spent over fifteen years in the renewable energy forecasting industry at start-up companies and made long term demand forecasts for Seattle City Light. Her Ph.D. is in Atmospheric Science from the University of Washington and she has a Bachelor of Science in Engineering from Princeton University.
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Tony Lenoir
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Associate Director, Energy Research
Tony Lenoir is an analyst with the S&P Global Commodity Insights Energy Research team.
Specializing in the US renewables space, he has published research on the expansion of solar and wind energy and also of battery storage; the REC market; and energy communities as defined by the Inflation Reduction Act, among other topics.
Tony holds an MBA with a specialization in international finance from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Arsalan Gul
S&P Global Commodity Insights
Senior Product Manager, Energy
Arsalan Gul is a Product Manager within S&P Global Commodities Insights. He has been with the company since 2015. Arsalan has been supporting the energy product within CapIQ pro, helping with client queries and building energy transition financial models. As a product manager, he works on developing the energy product roadmap and building enhancements for new markets.
Arsalan received MSc. Finance & Business Economics from Manchester Business School.