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Summary
While global economic growth is expected to slow, U.S. dividends are projected to continue their steady expansion in 2026. However, uncertainty is the new certainty. U.S. market dynamics continue to be shaped by factors such as trade tariffs, Federal Reserve policy, the AI investment boom, and geopolitical risks. As questions regarding U.S. economic exceptionalism persist, companies face a complex capital allocation landscape, where dividend growth increasingly competes with share buybacks, debt reduction, and capital expenditures.
Join us for an insightful discussion on these topics with the S&P Global Dividend Forecasting and S&P Ratings teams.
Key discussion points
- The U.S. 2026 macroeconomic outlook and its implications across equity sectors
- Ratings trends: Balance sheet and debt-related risks affecting dividend sustainability
- Major U.S. dividend growth trends and tail risk (initiations and risky dividends)
- S&P 500 Dividends: Bear-Bull scenarios — highlights from the new Dividend Forecasting dataset
Speakers
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Vika Tambaeva
Lead Research Analyst, Dividend Forecasting
Vika Tambaeva is the Dividend Research Analyst in AMER, Equity Data & Analytics at S&P Global Market Intelligence
Vika is responsible for dividend forecasting analysis in the American region with a focus on the United States and Canada. She leads the U.S. research initiatives at the S&P Global Research Team. Her primary coverage is the North American Energy Sector.
Vika holds an MBA degree from the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College of New York, NY.
S&P Global Ratings
Satyam Panday
Senior Economist
Satyam Panday is a US Chief Economist for S&P Global Ratings, based in New York. In this position, he develops U.S. economic forecasts for ratings, provides insight into U.S. macroeconomic outlook, and develops thought pieces on economic policy actions. Before joining S&P Global Ratings in July of 2013, Satyam taught undergraduate and graduate economics courses at Boston College and Brandeis University from 2011 to 2013. Previously, he had been a research fellow in the macroeconomic analysis division at the Congressional Budget Office in Washington D.C. Earlier in his career, he spent several years at MassMutual Financial Group as an actuarial analyst in their mortality research and quantitative modeling team. Satyam holds a Ph.D. in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University. He specialized in macroeconomics, development economics and applied econometrics. He has an undergraduate degree in Mathematics from St. Olaf College in Minnesota and received his MBA from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst’s Isenberg School of Management. Dr. Panday is a member of American Economic Association, National Association of Business Economists, and ECOMOD Global Economic Modeling Network. He is originally from Nepal.
S&P Global Ratings
Ekaterina Tolstova
Associate Director of Credit Research and Insights
Ekaterina Tolstova is a Frankfurt-based lead analyst in the Credit Research and Insights team at S&P Global Ratings, which is responsible for delivering forward-looking, actionable insights on fixed income market and rating performance trends. Ekaterina is a lead author on several high-profile publications such as Global Credit Markets Update, Monthly Defaults, Risky Credits, Global Financial Services and IPF Default and Transition Studies. She is responsible for covering financing conditions inside of the S&P European Credit conditions committee centered on identifying credit risks and their potential rating impact in various asset classes, as well as borrowing and lending trends for businesses and consumers.
Prior to covering global credit markets Ekaterina was a senior analyst within the EMEA Financial Services Group at S&P. She was responsible for ratings analysis and coverage of insurance companies, banks and other financial service companies.
Ekaterina has over 15 years of experience. During her tenure Ekaterina has regularly presented on webinars and represented S&P Global as a speaker at a number of public events and sector conferences. She has been quoted in several publications by the national and international press.
Moderator
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Juan Pablo Albornoz
US Head of Dividend Forecasting
Juan Pablo leads the Dividend Forecasting team for the Americas region. He manages a diverse group of analysts based in Argentina, India, and the United States. Prior to this role, he specialized in dividend forecasting for US and Canadian TMT and Healthcare companies through bottom-up fundamental analysis. He actively participates in public webinars, has published various research reports and regularly engages with clients and industry leaders.
The Dividend Forecasting product helps financial institutions price stocks and ETFs derivatives by delivering precise forecasts of the size and timing of dividend payments based on company and ETF research, market announcements, and unique quantitative insights.
Juan Pablo holds a bachelor's degree in Economics (Hons, magna cum laude) from the University of Buenos Aires (UBA), Argentina. Before joining S&P, he worked as an economic consultant in Argentina, handling macro-financial research, forecasting, business advisory, and engaging with the local press. Juan Pablo actively collaborates ad honorem as a visiting professor in undergraduate Economics courses at UBA.
Questions?
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