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Summary
On Feb. 28, the US and Israel launched a coordinated air campaign targeting Iranian leadership, security and nuclear sites that resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader and other top officials. This escalation signals a shift toward leadership change and aims to degrade Iran’s military and missile capabilities. Iran responded with ballistic missile and UAV strikes on US and Israeli assets and civilian infrastructure across Gulf states, with proxy militias poised to join hostilities. The conflict has triggered widespread risk to critical energy infrastructure, shipping routes and market access throughout the Middle East. Diplomatic efforts stalled, and unless pressured, a prolonged campaign appears likely. The situation threatens global supply chains and energy flows, with the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea especially vulnerable, heightening regional and global macro risks.
Please join us on March 5, 2026, for a focused panel exploring the war’s widening impact on security, supply chains, market access and key escalation signals.
Please note: This event is not open to media
Speakers
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Natznet Tesfay
Head of Insights & Analysis
Ms. Natznet Tesfay leads the Insights and Analysis group at S&P Global, which has over 140 experts around the world forecasting the economic, sovereign risk and granular country risk outlooks for 206 countries and geographies as well as comparative performance of over 80 industries and consumer markets globally. Natznet’s areas of specialization include geopolitical risks and influence mapping affecting emerging market debt vulnerabilities, extractive industry and global supply chains. For over a decade, Ms. Tesfay led Africa analysis group, developing the regional risk indicator and horizon scanning infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. Natznet contributes directly to business growth in emerging markets, advising C-level executives on market entry and risk management, and governments on leveraging their natural resource potential for sustainable economic growth. She regularly speaks in major media outlets, and at high-level conferences. Previously, she had advised on the development of free trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in the Horn of Africa. Ms. Tesfay’s degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of Economics.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
John Raines, Ph.D.
Director and Head of North America, Country Risk
As Market Intelligence's lead risk analyst for United States, Dr. Raines provides in-depth insight into the inner workings of the US government and its electoral cycle.
Dr. Raines presents his analysis in a manner that allows clients not only to understand the context of current US and global news events, but how those incidents will impact their industry’s performance over time. He has appeared in numerous media outlets, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, Time Magazine, BBC, NPR, CNBC, and The Associated Press, discussing topics like US elections, American foreign policy, and domestic legislation. In his role of principal global risk adviser, he has delivered dozens of keynote speeches and spoken to thousands of clients on macro country risk topics, from issues like populism and trade protection to US sanctions and international terrorism. In his previous work experience with the U.S. Department of State, he held roles responsible for conducting economic policy for the United States Embassy in Panama and overseeing the American Citizen Services unit in Hong Kong. He also worked at the World Bank, where he managed several projects in production of the World Development Indicators (WDI). His other assignments have included the U.S. Department of the Treasury as a Presidential Management Fellow, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the World Trade Center. He earned a Ph.D. in political science from Ohio State University and a master's degree in international relations from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Study (SAIS).
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch
Head of Asia-Pacific Economics
Ms. Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Head of Asia-Pacific Economics, is the lead India economist with the Global Economics group at S&P Global. Her research focuses on macroeconomic, financial and business developments in Asia, with particular emphasis on India. Among the issues she tracks are monetary and fiscal policies, financial and labor markets, as well as foreign trade and investment. She has prior experience in macroeconomic forecasting and market research gained with leading global institutions and firms, including the World Bank and McKinsey & Company. Her university degrees include a Bachelor of Arts in International Relations from the Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus, and a master's degree in International Economics and Finance from the International Business School at Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts, US.
S&P Global Market Intelligence
Jack A. Kennedy
Director and Head of Middle East and North Africa, Country Risk
Mr. Kennedy is Director and Head of Desk – Middle East and North Africa . He specialises in political risk and violent trends across the MENA region, with a particular focus on Egypt, the Gulf states, and the eastern Mediterranean. Prior to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Mr. Kennedy was lead Middle East analyst for a business and political risk consultancy firm in Scotland. He holds an MLitt in Middle East and Central Asia Security Studies from the University of St Andrews and an MA in Arabic and Social Anthropology from the University of Edinburgh.
Questions?
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